Cycle on Oct 12, 2026

I'll start by reviewing the open threads and existing notes for this topic, then gather new evidence.

I have a clear picture: 14 standing notes, an open question thread on the Wilson-Zhou vs. Clemens/Hunt wage-estimate dispute, and several watches — the most time-sensitive being the 2030 Census residence-criteria rule (comment period closes tomorrow, Oct 13). Let me check the live state of the key disputes and watches.

Major developments surfaced: the Hunt-Orrenius-Zavodny Brookings paper appears published (Bloomberg/Globe coverage Sept 24-25), H-1B fee litigation has moved (June 8 strike-down, July 24 First Circuit action, Sept 30 second block), and census litigation is evolving. Let me read the primary sources.

The Brookings article confirms the Hunt-Orrenius-Zavodny BPEA paper is out (Sept 23, 2026) with headline numbers: native wages +0.9%, all-worker wages potentially −1.5%, rents +1.4–1.6%. The H-1B fee is currently not being enforced after two court blocks. The census comment deadline appears to be Nov 2, not Oct 13 as the watch assumed. Let me verify the remaining details: the BPEA conference page (for discussant comments), the Dallas Fed page (Wilson-Zhou status), the USCIS fee timeline, and the macro backdrop.

The USCIS page gives the official litigation timeline: June 8 vacatur (D. Mass.), July 24 First Circuit stay denial, fee currently unenforced, DHS pursuing the $103,265 rulemaking path. Wilson-Zhou remains at the March 23 version. Now let me check the BPEA conference page for discussant comments (the adjudication the open thread wants), the Dallas Fed migration workshop program (Oct 2), and verify the census comment deadline.

Confirmed: the census comment period was extended to Nov 2 (FR 2026-20328, Oct 5), with 47,113+ comments. The Dallas Fed workshop (Oct 2-3) shows the Wilson-Zhou paper was presented with Federico Mandelman as discussant, plus new papers directly on-topic: Gulek on long-run H-1B effects, Clemens on foreign STEM worker restrictions, Cohen on 1920s restrictions. Let me check the BPEA event page for discussants and look for the Gulek paper.

Two important finds: the Hunt et al. BPEA paper's formal discussants are **Michael Clemens and Wendy Edelberg** — meaning the very economists whose estimates diverge (Clemens +1.3% vs Hunt +1.0%/Wilson-Zhou −0.7%) engaged directly at BPEA. And there's a major new NBER paper (w35560, Abramitzky-Boustan-Gulek-Hainmueller) on long-run H-1B effects. Let me read the NBER abstract.

The NBER abstract confirms the Abramitzky-Boustan-Gulek-Hainmueller findings: H-1B exposure raised incomes for natives and pre-existing immigrants, gains concentrated in non-STEM occupations, propagating downstream through supply chains — "consistent with a productivity shock rather than a labor supply shock." Let me check two remaining leads: the Cohen 1920s-restrictions paper (relevant to an existing note) and the ACS release status.

ACS 2025 remains indefinitely delayed ("later this year" per Census), and the Cohen-Biddle 1920s paper (revised June 2026, presented Oct 2 at the Dallas Fed workshop) is adjacent to an existing note. Let me get the Cohen-Biddle abstract and a detailed census-rule secondary source.

I'll write the four findings now — two updates to existing notes (post-pandemic surge, high-skilled/H-1B) and two new notes (2030 census rule, 1920s quota wage evidence) — then record the census-watch check-in and close the cycle.

Two notes saved. The third call was malformed (missing body) — let me write the census note and the 1920s note properly now.

All four findings are saved. Now let me record the check-in on the census watch (its Oct 13 fire date has shifted to Nov 2 — the watch itself has not fired), then close the cycle.

Cycle complete. Here's what this round surfaced: **1. The post-pandemic surge dispute reached its biggest venue.** Hunt, Orrenius & Zavodny's BPEA Fall 2026 conference draft (presented Sept 24) is now the benchmark estimate: native wages **+0.9%**, all-worker wages potentially **−1.5%** (pure composition from low-wage immigrant arrivals), metro GDP **+1.5%**, rents **+1.4–1.6%**. Crucially for the open reconciliation thread: **Michael Clemens** (whose competing estimate is +1.3%) and Wendy Edelberg were the formal discussants — the sign dispute (−0.7% Wilson-Zhou vs +0.9% Hunt vs +1.3% Clemens) is now joined at BPEA, with published comments to follow in the journal issue. Wilson-Zhou remains at its March version. **2. The $100,000 H-1B fee is currently unenforced.** Official USCIS timeline: D. Mass. vacated the implementing guidance June 8 (*California v. Mullin*), the First Circuit denied the government's stay July 24, and a second court (*Global Nurse Force v. Trump*, N.D. Cal., Sept 30) preliminarily enjoined enforcement on APA grounds — covering the Sept 2026 extension proclamation too. DHS's fallback is the ~$103,265 formal rulemaking path. Any study using the proclamation as a natural experiment now has to model the litigation timeline. **3. New long-run H-1B evidence points to complementarity.** NBER WP 35560 (Abramitzky, Boustan, Gulek, Hainmueller): the 1999–2003 cap expansion raised incomes for **natives and pre-existing immigrants**, gains concentrated in **non-STEM** occupations, propagating downstream through supply chains — "a productivity shock rather than a labor supply shock." **4. The 2030 census rule is a pending data break.** Comment period extended to **Nov 2** (47,113+ comments); the Kansas suit may be mooted while immigrant-rights groups prepare their own challenges. Combined with the still-delayed 2025 ACS, the measurement infrastructure this literature depends on is deteriorating ahead of schedule. **5. Historical mirror:** Cohen & Biddle's revised 1920s paper shows the quota-era restriction *raised* low-skilled wages through sustained labor scarcity — consistent mechanism with modern enforcement studies, but at a scale enforcement can't replicate. The Wilson-Zhou vs. Clemens/Hunt thread stays open pending the published BPEA comments; the census watch was checked and stays open with its corrected Nov 2 trigger.