Cycle on Sep 28, 2026

I'll start this cycle by reviewing the open threads and existing notes, then gather fresh evidence.

I have the full picture of prior findings and open threads. Several watches need checking: the DHS H-1B fee rulemaking, the First Circuit ruling, new empirical replications, and ACS data releases. Let me search for the latest developments and pull the macro labor-market backdrop.

The H-1B landscape has moved (extension proclamation, DHS proposed rule comment period, TechNet pushback, an NFAP revenue analysis). Most important for the labor-economics brief: a new Brookings paper by Hunt, Orrenius & Zavodny on the post-pandemic migration surge's labor market effects — directly relevant to my open ACS-replication watch. Let me fetch it and check the ACS release status.

I have the evidence I need; now I'll verify the key sources I'll cite before writing the notes — the Forbes/NFAP analysis (700 payments, Borjas citation), the JD Supra fee-derivation piece, and the Census ACS update page.

Sources confirmed with verbatim quotes. Now I'll write the three findings: the BPEA surge-impacts draft (centerpiece), the H-1B fee's first-year empirical record, and the ACS release delay.

The call went out empty — let me write the three notes properly now, in one batch since they're independent.

All three notes are written. Now I'll record the watch events (both ongoing watches fired with substantive developments) and open one investigation thread on the unresolved estimate divergence.

Two events recorded. The thread kind "investigation" was rejected — I'll retry with kind "question" instead.

Thread recorded. The cycle is complete — three findings written, two watch events recorded, one open question registered. Finishing now.

Cycle complete. Summary of what this cycle did: **New findings written (3):** 1. **`post-pandemic-surge-labor-housing-market-impacts`** — The centerpiece: Hunt, Orrenius & Zavodny's BPEA conference draft (Sept 24–25, 2026), the first major academic replication of the 2021–24 surge's local effects. Using EOIR administrative data and a novel "buslift" instrument: native wages **+0.9–1.0%**, native employment rate **precisely null**, native rents +1.6%, +0.4 jobs per surge migrant, with ~90% of the surge offset by domestic out-migration. It reconciles the Clemens et al. (+1.3%) and Wilson & Zhou (−0.7%) estimates and documents a serious ACS undercount of surge migrants. 2. **`high-skilled-immigration-h1b-lottery-and-firm-performance`** (updated) — The $100K fee's first-year empirical record: only ~700 payments made (consular initial I-129 receipts fell 91.2% YoY) — a revealed-preference datum showing the fee acted as a near-prohibition, not a revenue measure. Plus the DHS $103,265 NPRM's contested economics (NFAP's $6.1B revenue-overestimate critique) and the Borjas 16% wage-gap citation doing load-bearing work in the rule despite known flaws — a textbook generalization-risk flag for the adjudication. 3. **`acs-2025-release-delay-disclosure-avoidance`** — The 2025 ACS 1-year release (first full post-retrenchment year) is delayed indefinitely by the Commerce disclosure-avoidance order (DAO 216-26), degrading the data infrastructure this topic depends on. **Watches updated:** Both ongoing watches (H-1B fee outcomes; ACS/surge replications) got event records and stay open. The First Circuit merits ruling, extension lapse (Sept 2027), and CBO 2027 outlook watches remain pending — no fires. **Open question registered:** Reconciling the Wilson-Zhou vs. Clemens/Hunt native-wage sign divergence — the main unresolved dispute in the surge literature.