Cycle on Sep 7, 2026

I am starting the research cycle by listing the open threads and watches for this topic to understand what has been prioritized for investigation or monitoring.

I am reading the existing notes for this topic to understand what has been written so far.

I see several open threads related to the $100,000 H-1B visa tax/fee, DHS rulemaking, and litigation (e.g. *State of California v. Mullin* or DHS proposed rule RIN 1615-AD20), plus ACS microdata releases and CBO demographic projections. Let's first search for recent news and filings on the litigation and policy surrounding the $100,000 H-1B visa fee/tax, and *State of California v. Mullin*, to see if there are any recent updates or rulings (especially in the First Circuit or SCOTUS). I will run a web search.

Ah, this is fascinating! The litigation is *State of California v. Mullin*. Markwayne Mullin is being sued in his official capacity (as Secretary of Homeland Security - wait, DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin? That must be the current administration's DHS Secretary in 2026). Let's see what the First Circuit's decision was on the stay or merits. The search results show: - "CA1 Denies Government’s Request for Stay on Order Finding $100,000 H-1B Fee Unlawful" - "First Circuit Refuses to Reinstate $100,000 H-1B Fee While Appeal Proceeds..." - There's a PDF of the First Circuit's opinion: `https://www.ca1.uscourts.gov/sites/ca1/files/opnfiles/26-1699O-01A.pdf` or related. Let's search more specifically for the First Circuit's final decision or any developments in *State of California v. Mullin* in July, August, or September 2026. Let's do a web search with `recent=true` or just normal search to find the latest updates on the merits appeal, or if there's any subsequent action.

Let's fetch the First Circuit's July 24, 2026 decision in *State of California v. Mullin* (No. 26-1699) to see what exactly they decided, and what the legal arguments were. Wait, let's web_fetch the First Circuit PDF or a summary of it. Let's try to fetch `https://www.ca1.uscourts.gov/sites/ca1/files/opnfiles/26-1699O-01A.pdf` or read an article about it. Let's search for the First Circuit's July 24, 2026 opinion text or detailed analysis. Wait, let's first web_fetch `https://www.aila.org/library/ca1-state-of-california-v-mullin-7-24-26` or `https://ogletree.com/insights-resources/blog-posts/100000-h-1b-fee-on-hold-while-governments-appeal-proceeds/` to understand the ruling. Let's do both. Let's call `web_fetch` on the Ogletree URL first since AILA might require a login. Let's see.

Let's fetch the First Circuit PDF itself if we can, or search for the text of *State of California v. Mullin* (No. 26-1699) to get verbatim quotes. Wait, let's search for the First Circuit's opinion text or quotes from it. Let's do a web search.

Let's fetch the Justia page or the vitallaw page to get more details of the First Circuit's July 24 decision. Let's try to fetch `https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/ca1/26-1699/26-1699-2026-07-24.html` or search for quotes from it. Let's call `web_fetch` on the Justia URL.

This is a fantastic development! The First Circuit's July 24, 2026 ruling denied the government's motion to stay the district court's vacatur of the $100,000 H-1B fee. Let's see if there is any other litigation or if there was any subsequent Supreme Court action. The first-circuit-merit-ruling-or-supreme-court-action watch is: "Monitor the First Circuit's final decision on the merits of the appeal in State of California v. Mullin, or any emergency stay application filed by the federal government with the U.S. Supreme Court, which could reinstate the $100,000 H-1B fee and trigger retroactive collection." Let's check if the federal government filed an emergency stay application with the Supreme Court, or if the Supreme Court has acted on it. Let's search for "California v. Mullin" supreme court or "Mullin" H-1B "Supreme Court" or "SCOTUS". Let's run a web search.

Let's search more recently for any SCOTUS action since July 24, 2026. The current date is September 7, 2026. Let's see: `Date of Last Known Filing: Sept. 3, 2026` on CourtListener for *State of California v. Mullin*. Let's search for "California v. Mullin" in CourtListener or Google to see what happened on Sept. 3, 2026 or recently. Let's do a web search.

Wait, look at this: "Proposed Rule: New $103,265 Fee for H-1B Cap-Subject Petitions" by Akiko Yamada on August 25, 2026. "Comments are due 30 days after Federal Register publication (deadline: on September 24, 2026)". This matches the first watch/thread: "Monitor the finalization of the DHS proposed rule (RIN 1615-AD20) to establish a $103,265 H-1B cap fee, and the subsequent federal lawsuits challenging its legality under the tax-vs-fee doctrine and INA 286(m)." Let's search for "RIN 1615-AD20" or "$103,265" H-1B fee to find the details of this proposed rule published in August 2026! Let's do a web search.

This is very clear! The $100,000 fee was struck down nationwide by the District of Massachusetts on June 8, 2026, in *State of California v. Mullin*. The First Circuit on July 24, 2026 denied the government's stay request. In response, on August 25, 2026, DHS published a proposed rule (RIN 1615-AD20) in the Federal Register to establish a new $103,265 fee for all cap-subject H-1B petitions, attempting to use its statutory fee-setting authority to recover costs across the federal immigration system, rather than relying on the presidential proclamation authority that was struck down as an unconstitutional tax in *Mullin*. Let's fetch the actual Federal Register proposed rule or an in-depth article about it to understand the legal and economic justification for the $103,265 fee and its differences from the $100,000 fee. Let's do a web search.

Let's web_fetch the Federal Register proposed rule `https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/08/25/2026-17324/fee-for-certain-h-1b-petitions` or a part of it to understand the legal mechanism. Since Federal Register documents can be long, let's fetch it and see how much we get. If it's too long, we will see, but let's fetch it.

This is incredibly rich and detailed. We now have a clear picture of the regulatory, legal, and economic landscape surrounding high-skilled immigration fees and the H-1B program in 2026. Let's synthesize what we have: 1. **The $100,000 Consular Processing H-1B Fee Struck Down**: - Imposed by Presidential Proclamation 10973 on September 19, 2025. - Struck down and vacated nationwide on June 8, 2026, by Judge Leo T. Sorokin of the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts in *State of California v. Mullin* (formerly *California v. Noem*). - The court ruled that the $100,000 fee functioned as an unlawful tax rather than a routine regulatory charge, and that the president's statutory authority to restrict noncitizen entry (under INA §§ 212(f) and 215(a)) does not extend to imposing a tax. It also found that the agencies' rollout did not comply with federal rulemaking requirements. - The government appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit (Docket No. 26-1699). - On July 24, 2026, the First Circuit denied the government's motion to stay the district court's vacatur of the fee, meaning the $100,000 fee remains unenforceable nationwide during the appeal. - Note: There was a conflicting ruling in December 2025 by a D.C. district court (brought by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce) that upheld the fee, which is currently on appeal in the D.C. Circuit. 2. **The New Proposed $103,265 H-1B Fee (RIN 1615-AD20)**: - Published in the Federal Register as a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) on August 25, 2026 (91 FR 54817). - Unlike the proclamation-based $100,000 fee, this proposed rule is issued by DHS using its explicit statutory fee-setting authority under INA § 286(m) and (n), attempting to establish an interagency cost recovery framework. - The fee would apply to all cap-subject H-1B petitions (including the advanced-degree exemption) filed for FY 2028 (calendar year 2027) and would be $103,265, payable at the time of filing, in addition to all other fees. - It would *not* apply to cap-exempt petitions (e.g., nonprofit research organizations, universities, government research organizations) or extensions/amendments. - The public comment period closes on September 24, 2026. 3. **Economic and Interagency Cost Recovery Justification**: - The proposed fee is designed to generate approximately $8.8 billion in annual revenue (assuming 85,000 cap-subject petitions) to fund the "lawful immigration system" across multiple federal agencies. - The cost allocations are: - **USCIS (34.2% / $3.0B)**: Covers $1.8B in projected unfunded IEFA non-premium costs (e.g., lockbox internalization, new National Records Center, Voter Verification System, and 6,045 new staff) and a $1.2B cost transfer of core payroll/expenses from the Premium Processing account. - **EOIR (33.7% / $2.957B)**: Funds 8,400 additional positions (Immigration Judge teams, attorneys, legal assistants) and court/adjudicatory non-personnel costs to expand court capacity. - **DOL (13.8% / $1.21B)**: Funds PERM, H-1B LCA processing, prevailing wage programs, and $350M each for the Wage and Hour Division (WHD) and Office of the Solicitor for immigration enforcement and legal support. - **ICE (11.9% / $1.05B)**: Funds vetting of aliens pending adjudication ($900M), vetting of applicants for admission ($100M), and SEVP ($50M). - **DOS (5.5% / $484M)**: Funds consular visa processing, fraud prevention directorates, and PRM/RSC refugee travel and exams. - **CBP (0.9% / $76.2M)**: Funds the Traveler Verification Service (TVS) biometric matching capabilities. - The economic analysis relies on a new working paper by George J. Borjas (February 9, 2026), "The H-1B Wage Gap, Visa Fees, and Employer Demand" (NBER Working Paper 34793), which estimates that H-1B workers are paid 16.1% less than statistically comparable native workers, representing a cost savings that supports employers' willingness to pay a one-time fee of $103,265. Borjas's simulation shows that H-1B demand would remain at or above the 85,000 cap even with fees above $100,000. Let's check our prior findings and slugs to see which ones we should update or if we should create a new one. The prior findings are: - `high-skilled-immigration-h1b-lottery-and-firm-performance` (Title: "High-Skilled Immigration: Firm-Level Complementarity, the Wage-Weighted Lottery, and the September 2025 H-1B Visa Tax Debate") Let's see if there are other notes we can read or search. The note `high-skilled-immigration-h1b-lottery-and-firm-performance` seems to be the perfect place to update with these massive developments. Let's read its content first to understand how to update it. Wait, let's look at the prior findings list or fetch the details of `high-skilled-immigration-h1b-lottery-and-firm-performance`. We can use `read_notes` to see if we can get its content, or search for it. Let's fetch its content. Wait, `read_notes` returns the list of notes with slugs, titles, and previews. Let's see if we can fetch the note itself. Ah, we don't have a specific `read_note` tool? Oh, wait! The tool is `read_notes` which lists the notes. Let's check if there is a tool to read a specific note. The tools available are: - `list_threads` - `read_notes` - `write_note` - `record_thread` - `resolve_thread` - `record_watch` - `record_event` - `web_search` - `web_fetch` - `market_view` - `finish_cycle` Ah! `read_notes` lists the current set of notes, including their slugs, titles, previews, updated_at, and source_count. Let's look at the parameters of `read_notes` - it has `topic_id` and `limit`. It returns the list of notes. Let's check if there's any other way to read the note. Since we don't have a separate `read_note_by_slug` tool, let's call `read_notes` with a higher limit or check if we can see the full body. Wait, does `read_notes` return the full body or just a preview? The description says "Returns slug, title, preview, updated_at, and source_count for each note so the cycle can reference prior findings without re-fetching them." Wait, let's see if we can search for the note's text or if we can write a new revision of the note. Since the guideline says: "When this cycle advances a subject you already have a finding for, call write_note with that SAME slug to revise it in place — an upsert that snapshots a new revision. Mint a fresh slug ONLY for a genuinely new subject." Let's double-check if we can search for the content of the note or if we should just update the note `high-skilled-immigration-h1b-lottery-and-firm-performance` with the new information. Yes, we can write a comprehensive, updated finding for `high-skilled-immigration-h1b-lottery-and-firm-performance`. Wait, let's check the watches/threads that we can resolve or record events on. Let's look at the active threads we listed: 1. Thread `01a056da-c43f-7e95-a238-bb1cb15351ac`: "DHS $103,265 H-1B Fee Rulemaking and Litigation" (kind: watch, cardinality: ongoing, trigger: DHS / USCIS). - Description: "Monitor the finalization of the DHS proposed rule (RIN 1615-AD20) to establish a $103,265 H-1B cap fee, and the subsequent federal lawsuits challenging its legality under the tax-vs-fee doctrine and INA 286(m)." - This watch is *ongoing*. We can record an event on it! The DHS proposed rule was published on August 25, 2026. 2. Thread `01a032cd-880c-758f-ad19-0505e960efd1`: "First Circuit Merit Ruling or Supreme Court Action on the $100,000 H-1B Fee" (kind: watch, cardinality: one_shot, trigger: First Circuit / SCOTUS). - Description: "Monitor the First Circuit's final decision on the merits of the appeal in State of California v. Mullin, or any emergency stay application filed by the federal government with the U.S. Supreme Court, which could reinstate the $100,000 H-1B fee and trigger retroactive collection." - Has this fired? The First Circuit denied the stay request on July 24, 2026, but the *final decision on the merits* is still pending, and there has been no Supreme Court action yet. So this one-shot watch has *not* fully resolved yet because the merits decision is still pending and SCOTUS hasn't acted. Wait, let's see if we should record an event on it or if it remains open. It remains open since it's a one-shot watch for the final merit ruling or SCOTUS action, which hasn't happened yet. 3. Thread `01a00ec3-594d-7b0e-80a7-2b09f1f0a16a`: "Empirical Replications and Policy Outcomes of the $100,000 H-1B Visa Tax" (kind: watch, cardinality: ongoing, trigger: H-1B). - Description: "Monitor future peer-reviewed empirical studies, economic replications, court challenges, or policy changes regarding the $100,000 H-1B visa tariff/fee implemented in September 2025 and its impact on technology sector employment, offshoring, and native salaries." - This watch has definitely seen a major event: the June 8, 2026 district court vacatur, the July 24, 2026 First Circuit stay denial, and the publication of George J. Borjas's February 2026 working paper "The H-1B Wage Gap, Visa Fees, and Employer Demand" (NBER WP 34793) which specifically models employer willingness to pay and demand elasticity for the fee! - Let's record an event on this ongoing watch. Wait, are there any other watches or threads we should look at? - Thread `019feab6-ed6b-7a86-ba17-32e34dc6707e`: "Release of 2024 and 2025 ACS Microdata and Peer-Reviewed Replications of the Post-Pandemic Surge" (ongoing) - Thread `019fa29b-f934-7cd5-ac9c-31ed8e1a932c`: "CBO 2027 Demographic Outlook and Net Migration Projections" (one_shot, fire_date: 2027-02-15T00:00:00Z) - Thread `019eca51-dd39-7e01-b94d-142c0b0a0599`: "CBO and DHS Annual Net Immigration Estimates" (ongoing) Let's check if there are public-markets data we should pull. The instructions say: "This topic has the public-markets datasource. When it concerns a company, sector, or the macro backdrop, your FIRST research step is to call `market_view` to pull the cited figures, then write findings grounded in them. Do not finish the cycle as "nothing to work with" before pulling the relevant view — the data is here. Every finding that states a number must cite the view's /markets URL." Wait, does high-skilled immigration or the H-1B fee affect specific sectors or the macro backdrop? Yes! The H-1B program is heavily concentrated in the technology sector (software, IT services) and also healthcare/STEM. Let's call `market_view` for the macro backdrop and maybe the technology sector if we can, or specific companies (e.g., tech companies or IT consulting firms like Infosys, Wipro, Cognizant, or big tech like Microsoft, Google, which are heavy H-1B users) to see if there are any insights. Wait, let's first call `market_view` with `kind="macro"` to get the macro backdrop (unemployment, CPI, interest rates). Let's do that!

Let's see if we can search for the stock ticker of some major H-1B users. For example, Infosys (INFY), Cognizant (CTSH), Microsoft (MSFT), or Alphabet (GOOGL). Let's call `market_view` for INFY and CTSH, which are historically among the largest H-1B sponsors and would be heavily impacted by a $100k+ cap-subject H-1B fee. Let's pull `market_view` for `INFY` and `CTSH`.

Let's see: Infosys (INFY) is trading at $11.70, down 40.9% from its 52-week high, with a P/E of 14.44. Wait, let's also pull CTSH (Cognizant) to see what its market view is. Let's do that!

Let's write a note for the slug `high-skilled-immigration-h1b-lottery-and-firm-performance`. Wait! Let's check the existing title and slug. Yes, the slug is `high-skilled-immigration-h1b-lottery-and-firm-performance` and the title was: "High-Skilled Immigration: Firm-Level Complementarity, the Wage-Weighted Lottery, and the September 2025 H-1B Visa Tax Debate". We will update this note to capture: 1. The June 8, 2026 District Court vacatur in *State of California v. Mullin* of the $100,000 consular processing fee (which was established by Proclamation 10973). 2. The July 24, 2026 First Circuit Court of Appeals order denying the government's stay request, keeping the $100,000 fee unenforceable nationwide during the appeal. 3. The August 25, 2026 DHS Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (RIN 1615-AD20) which proposes a new $103,265 fee for all cap-subject H-1B petitions. 4. The legal and economic basis of this new proposed fee: an interagency cost recovery framework under INA § 286(m) and (n), shifting costs to high-skilled employment-based immigration based on the "ability-to-pay" principle. 5. The specific interagency cost allocations ($8.8B total annual revenue, distributing funds to USCIS, EOIR, DOL, ICE, DOS, and CBP). 6. The economic research backing this: George J. Borjas's February 2026 NBER working paper (WP 34793) showing a 16.1% wage gap between H-1B workers and comparable natives, indicating a willingness to pay and inelastic demand above $100k. 7. The public market context: Companies like Infosys (INFY) and Cognizant (CTSH), major H-1B sponsors, are operating in a tighter tech environment (INFY is down 40.9% from its 52-week high, CTSH is up 21% over the last 3 months but faces an evolving regulatory landscape). Wait, are there other notes we should write or update? Let's see if we should create a separate note or update the existing one. The instructions say: "When this cycle advances a subject you already have a finding for, call `write_note` with that SAME slug to revise it in place — an upsert that snapshots a new revision. Mint a fresh slug ONLY for a genuinely new subject." So we should definitely update `high-skilled-immigration-h1b-lottery-and-firm-performance`. Let's double check if there are other findings we should write. Wait, let's look at the prior findings list. There is a prior finding: - `selection-bias-native-employment-wage-impacts` (Selection Bias in Native Responses: Reconciling the Employment and Wage Impacts of Immigration) - `labor-economics-consensus-skill-groups-nasem` (Labor Economics Consensus: Skill-Group Effects and the NASEM Report) - `immigration-enforcement-native-employment-impacts` (Immigration Enforcement: Native Employment Impacts and the Complementarity Trap) - `cepii-meta-analysis-wage-effects-immigration` (CEPII Meta-Analysis (2025): The Comprehensive Wage Effects of Immigration) - `mariel-methodological-reconciliation-compositional-bias` (Methodological Reconciliation of Mariel: Compositional Bias and the Role of Race) Is there any other topic or finding that we should create or update? Wait, let's review the watches and record events on them. We have: 1. Thread `01a056da-c43f-7e95-a238-bb1cb15351ac`: "DHS $103,265 H-1B Fee Rulemaking and Litigation" (ongoing) - Let's record an event on it! The event summary: "DHS published a proposed rule on August 25, 2026, to establish a $103,265 fee for cap-subject H-1B petitions." - Let's do that! 2. Thread `01a00ec3-594d-7b0e-80a7-2b09f1f0a16a`: "Empirical Replications and Policy Outcomes of the $100,000 H-1B Visa Tax" (ongoing) - Let's record an event on it! The event summary: "The $100,000 H-1B fee was vacated by a federal court in June 2026, and the First Circuit denied a stay of that order in July 2026." - Let's do that! Let's use `record_event` for both of these. Let's start with Thread `01a056da-c43f-7e95-a238-bb1cb15351ac`. The cycle ID is `cycle-a5abac1c-b499-4586-81c1-86c3d019852c` (from the channel/chat ID: `topic-019e89d0-1359-70a2-95cf-80adebbdd875-cycle-a5abac1c-b499-4586-81c1-86c3d019852c` - wait, let's extract the cycle ID: `019e89d0-1359-70a2-95cf-80adebbdd875-cycle-a5abac1c-b499-4586-81c1-86c3d019852c`? Let's check the chat ID. The chat ID is `topic-019e89d0-1359-70a2-95cf-80adebbdd875-cycle-a5abac1c-b499-4586-81c1-86c3d019852c`. The cycle ID is `a5abac1c-b499-4586-81c1-86c3d019852c` or the full string. Let's use `a5abac1c-b499-4586-81c1-86c3d019852c` as the cycle ID). Let's call `record_event`.

Awesome. Now let's record an event on Thread `01a00ec3-594d-7b0e-80a7-2b09f1f0a16a` ("Empirical Replications and Policy Outcomes of the $100,000 H-1B Visa Tax"). Let's do that!

Great. Now let's write the updated note for `high-skilled-immigration-h1b-lottery-and-firm-performance`. Wait, let's review the guidelines for writing findings: - Write ONE note per theme, never a combined write-up. - Use stable slugs. - Lift the evidence forward: name and link the actual thing (e.g., the Federal Register document, the court opinion, the working paper). - Carry 1-2 representative verbatim quotes, copied exactly, each kept with the link it came from. - Say what it means. - No YAML frontmatter. The title is the first `# ` heading and the slug is the slug parameter. - Cite the markets URLs if stating market figures (e.g., `/markets/macro/2026/09/07` and `/markets/INFY/2026/09/07` and `/markets/CTSH/2026/09/07`). Let's carefully craft the updated finding body. We will include: 1. **The $100,000 Consular Processing H-1B Fee Struck Down**: - Quote from the First Circuit's July 24, 2026 order in *State of California v. Mullin* (No. 26-1699): "Before us is a motion to stay, pending appeal to this Court, a district court order and final judgment that vacated actions taken by officials at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security ("DHS") and the U.S. Department of State ("DOS") to implement a presidential proclamation requiring that a $100,000 payment accompany all H-1B visa petitions." "We deny the motion." Link: `https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/ca1/26-1699/26-1699-2026-07-24.html` - Background on Judge Sorokin's June 8, 2026 district court order vacating the fee because it functioned as an unauthorized tax and the rollout violated federal rulemaking requirements. 2. **The DHS Proposed $103,265 Fee (RIN 1615-AD20)**: - Quote from the Federal Register proposed rule (91 FR 54817, August 25, 2026): "The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) proposes to establish a $103,265 fee, payable at the time of filing, for all H-1B cap-subject petitions, including those eligible for the advanced degree exemption, which would be imposed in addition to all other applicable fees or payments. This fee would serve as a dedicated revenue mechanism to help recover a portion of the federal government's costs of administering the lawful immigration system, including activities carried out by DHS, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), the U.S. Department of State (DOS), and the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL)." Link: `https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/08/25/2026-17324/fee-for-certain-h-1b-petitions` 3. **The Legal & Economic Justification**: - The shift to an interagency cost recovery framework using INA § 286(m) and (n). This is the first time DHS has attempted to fund other federal departments (EOIR, DOL, DOS) through a targeted fee on a specific nonimmigrant subpopulation. - The "ability-to-pay" principle: DHS argues H-1B cap-subject employers can afford the fee compared to their wage obligations. - The economic backing: George J. Borjas's February 2026 NBER working paper "The H-1B Wage Gap, Visa Fees, and Employer Demand" (NBER WP 34793) showing a 16.1% wage gap between H-1B workers and comparable natives, which supports a willingness to pay and suggests demand will not fall below the 85,000 cap even with fees above $100,000. 4. **Market Context**: - Major H-1B sponsors like Infosys (INFY) and Cognizant (CTSH) are operating in a tighter environment. INY's ADR is down 40.9% from its 52-week high, while CTSH has risen 21% over the last 3 months but faces potential regulatory headwinds. Include citations to `/markets/INFY/2026/09/07` and `/markets/CTSH/2026/09/07`. - Macro backdrop of 4.1% unemployment and 3.63% Fed funds rate (citing `/markets/macro/2026/09/07`). Let's double-check the exact quotes and links. First Circuit quote: "Before us is a motion to stay, pending appeal to this Court, a district court order and final judgment that vacated actions taken by officials at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security ("DHS") and the U.S. Department of State ("DOS") to implement a presidential proclamation requiring that a $100,000 payment accompany all H-1B visa petitions. ... We deny the motion." Link: `https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/ca1/26-1699/26-1699-2026-07-24.html` Federal Register quote: "The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) proposes to establish a $103,265 fee, payable at the time of filing, for all H-1B cap-subject petitions, including those eligible for the advanced degree exemption, which would be imposed in addition to all other applicable fees or payments. This fee would serve as a dedicated revenue mechanism to help recover a portion of the federal government's costs of administering the lawful immigration system, including activities carried out by DHS, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), the U.S. Department of State (DOS), and the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL)." Link: `https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/08/25/2026-17324/fee-for-certain-h-1b-petitions` Let's write this note using `write_note`. Let's state our intent and then call the tool. I

I will write the updated research finding under the stable slug `high-skilled-immigration-h1b-lottery-and-firm-performance` to capture the major legal and regulatory developments of June, July, and August 2026, including the vacatur of the $100,000 consular H-1B fee in *State of California v. Mullin*, the First Circuit's stay denial, and the newly proposed DHS $103,265 interagency H-1B fee. This finding is grounded in the federal register proposal, court decisions, and economic research by George J. Borjas (2026).

Now that I have successfully written the updated research finding and recorded events on the relevant ongoing watches, I will complete the research cycle by calling `finish_cycle`.

I have successfully completed the research cycle for topic 019e89d0-1359-70a2-95cf-80adebbdd875. ### Summary of Actions & Findings: 1. **Recorded Events on Active Watches**: - Recorded a major event on the **DHS $103,265 H-1B Fee Rulemaking and Litigation** watch (`01a056da-c43f-7e95-a238-bb1cb15351ac`), flagging the publication of the new proposed rule (RIN 1615-AD20) on August 25, 2026. - Recorded a major event on the **Empirical Replications and Policy Outcomes of the $100,000 H-1B Visa Tax** watch (`01a00ec3-594d-7b0e-80a7-2b09f1f0a16a`), detailing the June 8, 2026 district court vacatur in *State of California v. Mullin*, the July 24, 2026 First Circuit stay denial, and the publication of George J. Borjas's February 2026 economic analysis. 2. **Updated Key Research Finding**: - Updated the stable finding **`high-skilled-immigration-h1b-lottery-and-firm-performance`** in place to reflect the legal developments surrounding the struck-down $100,000 consular fee and the details of the newly proposed $103,265 interagency cost-recovery fee. This note is comprehensively grounded in the official Federal Register text, federal court orders, and empirical research on the 16.1% H-1B-to-native wage gap by George J. Borjas (2026). 3. **Incorporated Market & Macro Context**: - Evaluated and cited public-markets data for the U.S. macro backdrop (unemployment at 4.1%, Fed funds at 3.63%) and major H-1B sponsors like Infosys (INFY) and Cognizant (CTSH) to anchor the quantitative and economic analysis in real-time market conditions.