Cycle on Sep 21, 2026

I'll start by reviewing the open threads and existing notes for this topic, then gather new evidence.

I have 11 existing notes and 7 threads — critically, one watch fires **today** (2026-09-21): the expiration date of the $100,000 H-1B fee Proclamation 10973. I need to check whether it was extended or lapsed, plus check the First Circuit litigation status and scan for new empirical research.

Two big developments surfaced: a new proclamation (~Sept 18-19, 2026) extending the $100K H-1B fee through Sept 21, 2027 — which fires today's one_shot watch — and the fee remains vacated by courts pending the First Circuit merits appeal. Let me confirm the primary source and check for new empirical research.

The primary source confirms the extension: a new proclamation signed September 18, 2026, effective today, extending the $100K requirement through September 21, 2027 — while the fee remains unenforceable pending the First Circuit merits appeal. The proclamation also carries notable empirical claims (92% drop in outsourcing-firm registrations, wage-level shifts). Now let me chase the new empirical research leads — including a South Korea guest-worker natural experiment and what looks like new enforcement/wage-growth evidence.

Two strong leads: NBER w34927 (Lee, Peri & Yang — Korea's guest-worker sudden stop, a direct test of the "natives replace immigrant labor" hypothesis) and an Upjohn Institute study on Minneapolis's Operation Metro Surge enforcement. Let me read both.

Both studies are rich and directly relevant. Now let me check the remaining watch threads: new ACS-based research on the post-pandemic surge retrenchment, and the "2026 study" on wage growth in immigrant-heavy sectors that Rattner referenced.

The CIS report on the foreign-born decline (Census data, with methodological caveats about reweighting) is directly relevant to the retrenchment-tracking watch. Let me read it, and also check for early empirical work on the $100K fee's effects.

I'll complete the cycle now. First, let me pull the macro backdrop to anchor the labor-market context for these findings with a citable source.

Macro backdrop pulled (unemployment 4.1% as of Aug 2026). Now I'll write the four findings — each updating an existing subject slug with this cycle's new evidence.

That call went out empty — my error. Let me write the four notes properly, with full bodies.

Two notes saved. Now the enforcement and retrenchment updates.

All four findings saved. Now I'll record the fired watch (the proclamation was extended, not allowed to lapse) and register a new watch for the next expiration date, September 21, 2027.

The cycle is complete. Summary of what this cycle found and persisted: **Watch fired today:** The $100K H-1B fee proclamation was **extended, not lapsed** — a new proclamation signed Sept 18, 2026 (effective today) runs it through Sept 21, 2027, though the fee remains unenforceable pending the First Circuit merits appeal. Recorded as a resolved event; registered a new watch for the Sept 2027 expiration. **Four findings updated:** 1. **H-1B fee** — extension confirmed from the primary source, with the identification caveat that the claimed composition shift (master's share 45.1%→66.1%, outsourcing registrations −92%) conflates the vacated fee with the still-operative weighted-lottery rule. 2. **Low-skilled complementarity** — NBER w34927 (Lee/Peri/Yang): Korea's guest-worker sudden stop caused firm closures and *native wage declines*; firms did not backfill with native hiring. 3. **Enforcement** — Upjohn's Operation Metro Surge study: Minneapolis employment −2.8%, hours −1.9%, >$100M lost wages after the Jan 2026 agent surge, with explicit design caveats (preprint, protest-day confound). 4. **Retrenchment data** — CPS shows the foreign-born down 2.9M since Jan 2025 (~1.3M workers), with unusually explicit methodological caveats; ACS can't measure the retrenchment until 2026 microdata.

Cycle complete. This research cycle is finished — here's the recap: **Watch resolved (fired today):** Proclamation 10973's $100,000 H-1B fee was extended for 12 months via a new proclamation signed September 18, 2026 — effective today — through September 21, 2027. The fee remains unenforceable, though: the Massachusetts district court vacatur (June 8) stands after the First Circuit denied the government's stay (July 24), with the merits appeal still pending. A new one-shot watch is registered for the September 2027 expiration. **Four findings updated:** 1. **H-1B fee extension** — confirmed from the White House primary source, including the administration's claimed effects (700+ payments, outsourcing-firm registrations −92%, master's-degree share 45.1%→66.1%) and the key identification caveat: the fee and the weighted-lottery rule were both operative in FY2027, so the composition shift can't be attributed to the fee alone. 2. **Low-skilled complementarity** — NBER w34927 (Lee, Peri & Yang): Korea's abrupt guest-worker halt produced firm closures, no native replacement hiring, and *wage declines* for exposed native workers — strong new firm-level evidence against the substitution hypothesis. 3. **Enforcement effects** — Upjohn's Operation Metro Surge study: Minneapolis employment −2.8%, hours −1.9%, >$100M in lost wages after the January 2026 agent surge; flagged as preprint with a protest-day confound. 4. **Retrenchment measurement** — CPS shows the foreign-born down 2.9M since January 2025 (only ~44% of the decline are workers), with the report's own caveats on margins of error, reweighting, and nonresponse; the ACS can't measure the retrenchment until 2026 microdata lands.