Cycle on Jun 22, 2026

I will begin by listing the open threads and watches for this topic to see what specific questions or triggers have been set up by previous cycles.

I will search for recent news and policy developments regarding the proposed $100,000 H-1B visa processing fee, as well as updated CBO and DHS net immigration estimates, to see if either of our active watches has been triggered. I will also look for new empirical research in labor economics on immigration's wage and employment effects published in late 2025 or 2026.

This is a major and highly relevant development that occurred just a couple of weeks ago (June 8, 2026). A federal judge ruled the $100,000 H-1B visa fee unlawful. I will fetch the Reuters article and the Clark Hill article to get the details of this legal ruling and understand its implications for high-skilled immigration/tech labor markets. This will allow me to resolve the thread `019eca51-d4f6-781d-a63c-dd1d3cc13242` and record an event. Let's fetch the Reuters article first.

Let's also search for the latest CBO and DHS immigration estimates (from late 2025 or 2026) to see if we can trigger the second watch thread (`019eca51-dd39-7e01-b94d-142c0b0a0599`). I will search for "CBO immigration estimates 2026", "Congressional Budget Office demographic outlook 2026", or "DHS immigration statistics 2025 2026".

This is excellent! The CBO has indeed released its "The Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056" in early 2026 (looks like January or February 2026), and Brookings released an update in January 2026 titled "Macroeconomic implications of immigration flows in 2025 and 2026". I will fetch the Brookings article first, as it is highly relevant, and look for the CBO demographic outlook publication page. Let's run a search for the exact CBO demographic outlook page or fetch Brookings. Let's do both. Let's fetch the Brookings article.

The Brookings fetch failed due to a timeout. Let's try searching for the CBO publications or fetching the CBO's own page, or trying to find other sources discussing the CBO 2026 demographic outlook. Let's run a search for "CBO 2026 demographic outlook net immigration" to find articles summarizing it or try to fetch the CBO page. Let's see if we can fetch `https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61879` or `https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61994`. Let's try searching for some text or summaries.

Let's fetch the Edward Conard page or the Conversable Economist page to see the details of the CBO's 2026 demographic outlook. I will also try fetching the Brookings article again or search for "CBO 2026 demographic outlook net immigration numbers". Let's first search for "CBO 2026 demographic outlook" numbers or fetch the Edward Conard page to see what he says. Let's do a search specifically for the net immigration figures in the 2026 report. I'll search for: `CBO "Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056" "net immigration"` to see if we can get the specific projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026. This is crucial because our prior finding `unauthorized-immigration-local-labor-and-housing-markets` notes a steep decline in unauthorized immigration starting in mid-2024. Let's see how CBO's new 2026 outlook reflects this.

Let's look at the result snippets: "CBO estimates that net immigration declined after 2023, to 410,000 people in 2025." And "They estimate net immigration in 2025 of 410,000 which they forecast will be a trough..." Wait, let's fetch the Edward Conard page or search for the PDF of the report itself. Let's try downloading or fetching the Edward Conard page first to see what the exact text says. Or the Conversable Economist page. Let's fetch `https://conversableeconomist.com/2026/01/12/some-snapshots-of-the-us-demographic-future/` or `https://www.edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/cbo-forecasts-us-population-growth-over-the-next-decade-of-0-3-annually-starting-in-2030-net-immigration-the-sole-driver-of-population-growth-after-that-date-births-will-be-overtaken-by-deaths-cbo/`. Let's try the Edward Conard page.

The CBO Demographic Outlook for 2026 to 2056 was published on January 7, 2026. Let's do another search to get the exact details of the CBO 2026 Demographic Outlook, specifically the net immigration numbers. The search results showed: "CBO estimates that net immigration declined after 2023, to 410,000 people in 2025." Wait, let's search for: `CBO "Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056" "net immigration"` or `"net immigration" "410,000" "2025" "CBO"` to see what the numbers were for 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, and projections for 2026. This will give us a highly precise update on net immigration flows to match our prior finding `unauthorized-immigration-local-labor-and-housing-markets`. Let's search.

This is a massive and highly significant update. Let's look at the PDF snippet: "CBO now projects net immigration of 410,000 people (instead of 2.0 million) in 2025, 570,000 (instead of 1.6 million) in 2026, a total of..." And "Enforcement brought net immigration down from 3.3 million in 2023 to about 410,000 in 2025." This means that in the *January 2026 Demographic Outlook*, the CBO dramatically slashed its net immigration projections for 2025 from 2.0 million down to 410,000, and for 2026 from 1.6 million down to 570,000. This is a massive 80% collapse in projected net immigration driven by the administration's policy shifts and enforcement. Let's do a search to find the exact CBO table or text explaining this revision so that we can write a highly accurate update to the note `unauthorized-immigration-local-labor-and-housing-markets`. I will search for the exact text of the PDF: `site:cbo.gov/system/files/2026-01/61879-Demographic-Outlook.pdf` or search for the text: `"CBO now projects net immigration of 410,000 people"` or `"instead of 2.0 million"`. Let's search.

Let's fetch the Penn Wharton Budget Model page or the PDF itself if we can, or search for the exact text of the CBO PDF to understand what drove this massive reduction in projections. Let's search for "CBO" "Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056" "revisions" or "September 2025" to see why they revised it. Wait, let's search for: `site:cbo.gov "Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056"` and see if we can fetch some text. Let's do a search for: `"Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056"` on `cbo.gov` or search for the exact text of the PDF. Let's search.

Let's fetch the CBO page `https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61879` or `https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61994` to see if we can get the text of the summaries explaining these revisions. Let's try fetching the HTML of `https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61879` to see what is on there. If that fails or times out, we can search deeper. Let's fetch it.

This is exactly what we needed! Let's analyze this carefully: - "CBO has also reduced its projections of net immigration from 2025 to 2029 because of administrative actions taken by the current Administration, enactment of the 2025 reconciliation act (Public Law 119-21), and updates to past population data." - The PDF snippet we found earlier says: "CBO now projects net immigration of 410,000 people (instead of 2.0 million) in 2025, 570,000 (instead of 1.6 million) in 2026, a total of..." This is a massive reduction in net immigration projections due to: 1. Administrative actions taken by the current (Trump) Administration. 2. Enactment of the 2025 reconciliation act (Public Law 119-21). 3. Updates to past population data. Let's do a search on "Public Law 119-21" or "2025 reconciliation act" immigration provisions to see what that law did and how it affects labor markets and immigration. This is a very recent policy shift (from late 2025) which creates a major natural experiment / policy change that we should track. This fits our brief perfectly! Let's search.

This is an incredible, crucial find! Look at this: - "PUBLIC LAW 119-21—JULY 4, 2025" (signed on July 4, 2025). This is the "Budget Reconciliation Act of 2025" (or "H.R. 1 An act to provide for reconciliation pursuant to title II"). - "How CBO Estimated the Effects of the 2025 Reconciliation Act on the Labor Supply: Working Paper 2026-06." This is a goldmine of empirical and methodological research published in 2026 by the CBO! It's titled "How CBO Estimated the Effects of the 2025 Reconciliation Act on the Labor Supply: Working Paper 2026-06". Let's search for this working paper and fetch its details. It will explain exactly how the CBO modeled these policy shifts and their labor supply impacts. This is a primary source of the highest quality for our topic! Let's do a search for: `"Working Paper 2026-06"` or `"How CBO Estimated the Effects of the 2025 Reconciliation Act on the Labor Supply"`.

Look at the publish date: "June 18, 2026". That is just four days ago! This is an extremely fresh, top-tier research paper that directly addresses the labor supply effects of the 2025 Reconciliation Act (Public Law 119-21) and how the CBO models them. Let's fetch `https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62267` to get the summary and key details of this paper! This is amazing. Let's fetch it.

The working paper `2026-06` focuses on "provisions in the 2025 reconciliation act related to individual income taxes and the Medicaid program." Wait, let's look for other publications or working papers from CBO or other sources about the labor supply effects of the immigration enforcement or the immigration provisions of Public Law 119-21. Let's do a search on "CBO Working Paper" or "CBO" "immigration" "labor supply" 2026 or 2025. Let's see: `CBO "labor supply" "immigration" 2025 OR 2026` or `CBO "reconciliation act" "immigration" "labor supply"`. Let's search.

Ah, the search budget for this cycle is spent! This means I cannot search any further. I must rely on the rich set of results I have already gathered, analyze them, and write up the findings. Let's review what we have: 1. **The $100,000 H-1B visa fee has been struck down by a federal judge** on June 8, 2026. This resolves our watch thread `019eca51-d4f6-781d-a63c-dd1d3cc13242`. I will record an event and resolve this thread. - Judge Leo Sorokin of the U.S. District Court in Boston ruled that the $100,000 fee was an unlawful tax that Congress had not authorized, rather than a "monetary penalty" under the president's immigration powers. - The ruling cited the Supreme Court's February 2026 decision rejecting Trump's global tariffs. - The fee was announced in September 2025 and dramatically raised costs from the typical $2,000–$5,000 range. - This fee applied to new H-1B visas, but not to foreign students already in the U.S. transitioning to H-1Bs. - Very few employers actually paid it: only 85 payments were received by USCIS as of February 15, 2026. - The ruling is a significant win for tech employers and state AGs who argued it was harming high-skilled talent acquisition, though the White House plans to appeal. 2. **The CBO Demographic Outlook (2026 to 2056)** released on January 7, 2026, reveals a massive downward revision in net immigration. This directly relates to our watch thread `019eca51-dd39-7e01-b94d-142c0b0a0599` and our existing note `unauthorized-immigration-local-labor-and-housing-markets`. - CBO estimated that net immigration declined sharply after 2023. - For 2025, CBO slashed its net immigration projection from 2.0 million (in its prior projections) down to just 410,000. - For 2026, CBO projected net immigration of 570,000 (down from 1.6 million). - This represents an 80% collapse in projected net immigration flows. - The drivers cited by CBO are: "administrative actions taken by the current Administration, enactment of the 2025 reconciliation act (Public Law 119-21), and updates to past population data." - The 2025 Reconciliation Act (signed July 4, 2025) included significant immigration enforcement-related fees, adjustments for asylum seekers, and border funding. - This massive reduction in immigration is expected to slow labor force growth and potential GDP growth, and CBO's economic forecasts reflect these policy shifts. Let's read our prior notes to see what slugs we should update: - I will call `read_notes` to see the full content and exact slugs of our prior notes, so I can update them properly. Let's do that first.

I see several notes: 1. `high-skilled-immigration-h1b-lottery-and-firm-performance` (updated 2026-06-15) - This is perfect for our $100,000 H-1B visa fee legal ruling update! 2. `unauthorized-immigration-local-labor-and-housing-markets` (updated 2026-06-15) - This is perfect for the CBO Demographic Outlook / 2025 Reconciliation Act policy shift update! Let's read these two notes first using `read_notes` or simply write updates to them. Since we want to preserve and extend the living set of findings, I will write updated versions of these notes under the exact same slugs. Wait, let's look at the content of `high-skilled-immigration-h1b-lottery-and-firm-performance` and `unauthorized-immigration-local-labor-and-housing-markets` by reading them first? Oh, wait, the `read_notes` tool only returns the preview, slug, title, source_count, and updated_at. I can't read the full body directly with `read_notes` unless I fetch it? No, wait, `read_notes` does not have a parameter to read a specific note. Ah, wait, if I write a note, it updates the existing note in place and snapshots the prior content. Let's make sure our updated notes are comprehensive and integrate the new findings seamlessly with the previous main themes (which are clear from the titles and previews). Let's first record the event and resolve the threads: 1. **Thread ID:** `019eca51-d4f6-781d-a63c-dd1d3cc13242` ("Implementation or legal ruling on the proposed $100,000 H-1B visa fee") Let's call `record_event` and `resolve_thread` for it. - Summary: A federal judge in Boston struck down the proposed $100,000 H-1B visa fee on June 8, 2026, ruling it is an unlawful tax. - Outcome: Struck down (unlawful tax). Resolves the watch. - Salience: 5 (critical legal ruling for high-skilled immigration). Let's do this first.

Now let's resolve this thread.

Now let's look at the other watch thread: `019eca51-dd39-7e01-b94d-142c0b0a0599` ("CBO and DHS Annual Net Immigration Estimates"). The CBO released its "The Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056" on January 7, 2026, which dramatically slashed projected net immigration for 2025 (from 2.0 million to 410,000) and 2026 (from 1.6 million to 570,000). This represents a major ongoing watch event. Let's call `record_event` on this watch thread. Since this is an `ongoing` watch (it tracks annual estimates), we should set `resolves: false`. - Summary: CBO's Demographic Outlook (2026 to 2056) slashes 2025 net immigration projections by 80% to 410,000. - Outcome: Massive downward revision in net immigration projections due to policy changes and enforcement. - Salience: 4. Let's record the event.

Now let's write our updated notes. We will update two existing notes: 1. `high-skilled-immigration-h1b-lottery-and-firm-performance` - We will update this note to include the major legal ruling on the $100,000 H-1B visa fee, which is a massive development for high-skilled labor markets. 2. `unauthorized-immigration-local-labor-and-housing-markets` - We will update this note to reflect the CBO's 2026 Demographic Outlook, showing how immigration enforcement and the 2025 Reconciliation Act (Public Law 119-21) have driven an 80% collapse in projected net immigration, and how CBO models these labor supply effects. Let's carefully construct the markdown body for each note. ### Note 1: `high-skilled-immigration-h1b-lottery-and-firm-performance` We'll title it: "High-Skilled Immigration: Firm-Level Complementarity, Offshoring, and H-1B Program Changes" We'll integrate the new June 8, 2026, ruling by U.S. District Judge Leo Sorokin striking down the $100,000 fee. Let's draft the body. We must: - Name and link the actual source (Reuters). - Carry 1-2 representative verbatim quotes, copied exactly, each kept with the link it came from. - Say what it means. - Integrate it with the existing discussion on high-skilled immigration, firm-level complementarity, and offshoring. Let's write the note.

Now let's write our updated note for `unauthorized-immigration-local-labor-and-housing-markets`. We will title it: "Unauthorized Immigration and Local Labor and Housing Markets: Post-Pandemic Evidence" We'll integrate: - The CBO's Demographic Outlook (2026 to 2056) published on January 7, 2026. - The dramatic 80% slash in net immigration projections for 2025 (to 410,000 down from 2.0 million) and 2026 (to 570,000 down from 1.6 million). - The policy drivers: Trump administrative actions, the 2025 Reconciliation Act (Public Law 119-21), and revisions to past population data. - How CBO models these labor supply effects, citing the CBO publications. Let's construct the body. We must: - Name and link the actual source (CBO Demographic Outlook page and PDF, and potentially Brookings or other sources). - Carry 1-2 representative verbatim quotes, copied exactly, each kept with the link it came from. - Say what it means. Let's write this note.

Now let's verify if there is any other action we should take. We have: 1. Called `list_threads` to find open threads and watches. 2. Found a major development on both watches: - The $100,000 H-1B fee was struck down by a federal court in Boston on June 8, 2026. - The CBO released its Demographic Outlook (2026 to 2056) in January 2026, showing an 80% slash in projected net immigration for 2025 (to 410,000 down from 2.0 million), driven by Trump administrative actions and the 2025 Reconciliation Act (Public Law 119-21, signed July 4, 2025). 3. Recorded a one-shot event for the H-1B fee watch and resolved it. 4. Recorded an ongoing event for the CBO estimates watch (leaving it open as it's an ongoing annual watch). 5. Written updated versions of the two relevant notes under their stable slugs (`high-skilled-immigration-h1b-lottery-and-firm-performance` and `unauthorized-immigration-local-labor-and-housing-markets`) carrying verbatim quotes and links to primary sources. 6. Now, I am ready to call `finish_cycle` to end the research cycle. Let's double check if there are any other threads or if everything is in order. The threads are: - `019eca51-d4f6-781d-a63c-dd1d3cc13242` ("Implementation or legal ruling on the proposed $100,000 H-1B visa fee") -> Resolved! - `019eca51-dd39-7e01-b94d-142c0b0a0599` ("CBO and DHS Annual Net Immigration Estimates") -> Event recorded, ongoing watch remains open. This is perfect! Let's call `finish_cycle` to complete this research cycle.

I have successfully completed this research cycle for topic `019e89d0-1359-70a2-95cf-80adebbdd875` with two major updates: ### 1. High-Skilled Immigration: $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee Struck Down * **Development:** On June 8, 2026, U.S. District Judge Leo Sorokin in Boston struck down the Trump administration’s proposed $100,000 processing fee on new H-1B visas, ruling it an unlawful tax that Congress never authorized. * **Economic Relevance:** The ruling prevents a massive cost barrier that tech employers and state AGs argued would trigger significant domestic hiring turmoil and accelerate the offshoring of engineering talent to multinational affiliates in Canada, India, and China. Very few employers actually paid the fee prior to the ruling (only 85 payments were received by USCIS as of mid-February 2026). * **Action taken:** Resolved the watch thread `019eca51-d4f6-781d-a63c-dd1d3cc13242` and updated the permanent note `[[high-skilled-immigration-h1b-lottery-and-firm-performance]]`. ### 2. Low-Skilled & Unauthorized Immigration: CBO Slashes Projections by 80% * **Development:** The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its *Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056* (January 7, 2026), revealing a massive downward revision in net immigration. CBO now estimates net immigration for 2025 at just **410,000 people**, down from its previous projection of **2.0 million** (an ~80% collapse). For 2026, the projection is revised down to **570,000 people** (down from 1.6 million). * **Policy Drivers:** The collapse is driven by aggressive executive enforcement actions, updates to past population data, and the legislative provisions of the **Budget Reconciliation Act of 2025 (Public Law 119-21, signed July 4, 2025)**, which significantly increased border funding and restricted asylum access. * **Labor Market Impact:** The post-pandemic immigration boom (2021–2023) provided a major disinflationary labor supply shock to high-contact sectors (construction, agriculture, hospitality). The sudden contraction is expected to drive up localized wages and labor costs. Over the long run, CBO projections show that starting in 2030, annual deaths will exceed births, making net immigration the sole driver of U.S. population and labor force growth. * **Action taken:** Recorded an ongoing event under the watch thread `019eca51-dd39-7e01-b94d-142c0b0a0599` and updated the permanent note `[[unauthorized-immigration-local-labor-and-housing-markets]]`.