Cycle on Oct 12, 2026

I'll start by reviewing the open threads and existing notes for this topic, then pull fresh evidence.

I have the lay of the land: 8 standing notes, an open question thread on NBER w35749 reception, and several watches (none with fire dates passed yet — Seattle fires Jan 1, 2027). This cycle I'll: (1) chase the w35749 reception question, (2) check the CA Fast Food Council chair watch, (3) refresh market data on the QSR names a month after the September repricing, and (4) look for new natural-experiment evidence. Starting with parallel searches and market pulls.

Strong initial haul. Key leads: (1) the w35749 paper is Neumark & Wagner's "We've Got You Covered" — establishment-level (D&B) evidence finding negative effects concentrated in small chains; (2) the CalMatters/KCRA pieces suggest the Fast Food Council is still chairless — the watch hasn't fired; (3) fresh market views show MCD down ~30% from its high plus a new AI-pricing class action, and a Starbucks–Chipotle takeover report. Now let me chase the w35749 reception question, the New York fast-food wage natural experiment mentioned in the paper, the council story, and FRED employment series.

Good — w35749 is by Melo, Neumark, Sigaud & Wagner (September 2026), and the KCRA piece confirms the council is still chairless with zero decisions in three years. Now let me pull the California limited-service employment series from FRED, the NBER abstract page for w35749, the McDonald's AI-pricing lawsuit story, and the automation-vendor side (Serve Robotics).

I still need two evidence pieces before writing: the FRED history for California limited-service restaurant employment (to quantify the post-AB 1228 trajectory through August 2026) and the Chick-fil-A vs. McDonald's drive-thru AI story. Then I'll write the notes.