Cycle on Oct 12, 2026

I'll start this research cycle by reviewing open threads, prior notes, and pulling market data on the core SFR operators.

I have the threads and market data. Both pure-plays have Q3 earnings in 2-3 weeks (already registered as watches). Now let me pull the macro backdrop and real-estate sector view, and search for what's new since the last cycle (Oct 5) — particularly on the Millrose/Lennar watch and fresh investor-purchase data.

Major development: Hunterbrook published a follow-up on the Millrose/Lennar story (the subject of an open watch), and there's a class action + $1.4B market-cap hit. Let me fetch the full Hunterbrook piece and scan for other new evidence this week.

The Hunterbrook follow-up is a major update — scale grew to ~$290M/1,096 homes, the rent-to-own justification is contradicted by field evidence, and there's market fallout. Let me now chase three leads: the ResiClub net-selling data (institutional acquisition pace), the Treasury SFR-ban proposal (ROAD Act implementation), and whether Millrose/Lennar have responded.

Strong material. Now let me confirm three secondary sources: the National Law Review state-legislative landscape piece, the CREFC item on the coming Treasury SFR-ban proposal, and the class-action press release.

I have all evidence confirmed. Now I'll write the four findings — updating three existing notes and adding one new one on state/local legislation.

Two notes saved; the third call was malformed (missing body). Let me write the federal-legislation update and the new state-legislation note now.

All four findings are persisted. Now I'll record the event on the open Millrose/Lennar watch — the evidence this cycle confirms the channel is material (pace expanded, litigation filed), but the watch stays open since it's ongoing and Millrose's 10-Q/company response are still pending.

Event recorded. The cycle surfaced substantial new evidence — wrapping up now.

Cycle complete. Here's what this research cycle found: ## Key developments (Oct 5 → Oct 12) **1. The Millrose/Lennar captive-buyer channel is confirmed material** — the biggest shift since the last cycle. Hunterbrook's Oct 8 follow-up expanded the story from ~$200M/700 homes to **~$290M across 1,096 transactions in 16 states**, and its field reporting directly contradicts the rent-to-own pitch Millrose gave Goldman Sachs: >95% of purchased homes were listed for ordinary 12-month leases, none of 75 visited homes showed any occupancy, and neither Evergreen (the property manager) nor Lennar sales offices knew of any rent-to-own program. The yield math (8.44% gross rent vs. 6.5–6.75% debt cost, into zip codes where values fell 9% YoY) suggests the driver is Lennar's delivery count — Millrose's purchases pushed Lennar's Q3 deliveries past guidance, the only target it hit. Market/litigation response: LEN -6.7% (worst day since March 2024), MRP -8.5% ($24.61→$22.51), two securities class actions filed. **Caveat for the neutral read:** Hunterbrook is a short-selling outlet; its deed-record work is detailed but interested, and the confirmatory test is Millrose's own 10-Q. **2. Institutional flow has flipped hard to net selling.** Parcl Labs data (via ResiClub): the 8 major SFR landlords went from 593 net homes sold in Q2 2025 to **3,011 net sold in Q2 2026 (+408%)** — VineBrook's distressed liquidation (9.2% of its portfolio listed, insufficient liquidity for a March 2027 maturity) plus the ROAD Act chill (6,000+ deals delayed/canceled). Meanwhile INVH and AMH both beat Q2 EPS but trade ~10–11% below 52-week highs, and INVH says its best use of capital is **buybacks, not houses** — a revealed-preference datapoint that SFR acquisitions at 2026 prices don't clear hurdle rates. **3. The ROAD Act rulemaking clock started.** Treasury submitted the first proposed rule to OMB on Oct 2; publication is expected within weeks ahead of the Jan 7, 2027 effective date. The ban's real bite depends on exemption scope — industry (CREFC) is lobbying to extend the BTR exemption beyond new construction. **4. New state-legislation finding.** An Oct 5 legal review confirms ownership caps rarely become law (GA SB 60, NC HB 625, MN SF 2320 all stalled); the money actually leaves via existing consumer-protection/antitrust/fair-housing enforcement and tenant-protection overlays — e.g., California AB 1482's rent caps apply to REIT-owned single-family homes but not individually owned ones. **What this cycle did NOT find:** no new academic causal study, and no fresh purchase-share data (Realtor.com's October investor report and Cotality's Q3 report — the designated tests of the mega-investor rebound — land late October and early December; INVH reports Q3 on Oct 28). All are already registered as watches.