Cycle on Aug 24, 2026

I will start by listing the active threads for this topic to see what questions are currently open and what watches are registered.

I will now list the prior notes for this topic to understand the existing research and avoid duplicating effort or creating duplicate slugs.

I'll start by checking the market view for some of the key utility tickers mentioned in the brief (such as CEG, VST, TLN, NRG, FE, SO, D, AEP) to see how their public market valuations and trajectories are shaping up, and to ground my quantitative analysis. Let's call `market_view` for some of these. I will first query CEG (Constellation Energy) and VST (Vistra Corp).

I will also pull Vistra Corp (VST) to see how it compares. Vistra is another major merchant power producer with nuclear and gas generation.

Great. Now let's do a search for recent developments (especially since the current date is August 24, 2026). Let's see what's happening with: 1. PJM Accelerated Backstop Reliability Auction Results (scheduled for September 2026, or perhaps there's news about it?). 2. Oregon PUC Decision on Schedule 96 (due around September 4-5, 2026). 3. PUCO and FirstEnergy (Schedule DCT). 4. Entergy Louisiana and Meta Hyperion. 5. Other utilities' Q2 2026 earnings results, load guidance, and PPAs. Let's run some targeted web searches. I will search for `PJM Accelerated Backstop Reliability Auction` or `PJM September 2026 auction`. Let's search for `PJM "Reliability Backstop Procurement"`. Let's also search for `Oregon PUC PGE Schedule 96` and see what the latest news is. Let's do a search on `PJM backstop auction september 2026`.

Let's fetch the Utility Dive article or the PJM Insider page to see the exact details of the proposal, specifically how it addresses data center curtailment and cost-allocation. Let's fetch `https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-board-backstop-capacity-auction-data-center-curtailment/826347/`. This will give me excellent primary source details.

This is incredibly useful. Let's analyze what's happening. - Under the PJM board's July 27, 2026 proposal: - PJM plans to hold a one-time backstop capacity auction starting Sept. 30, 2026, running until Oct. 21, 2026, with results released in early December 2026. - This is to address a 6.8 GW shortfall from the 2028/2029 capacity auction. - PJM plans to cap the overall cost of accepted supply offers at $555/MW-day (up from $325/MW-day temporary cap for the last auction). - PJM's board will direct PJM staff to exclude any incremental new large loads that don't bring new power supplies from the demand forecasts used in future auctions. - Under the "Interim Resource Adequacy Service" (IRAS) framework (previously called connect and manage), large loads that don't bring new power supplies must reduce their load or switch to on-site backup resources when PJM's system nears emergency conditions, starting on June 1. - PJM will create a large load "registry" that includes facility location, ramp schedule, capacity supply, etc. - The market monitor Joseph Bowring of Monitoring Analytics points out that data center load remaining in capacity auctions increased capacity costs by $29.4 billion over the last four auctions, and that number will accelerate if PJM increases the maximum price in auctions. - Also, Competitive Power Ventures (CPV) dropped out of PJM's fast-track Reliability Resource Initiative interconnection process for a planned Ohio power plant after receiving an $878/kW interconnection cost estimate. This directly relates to the existing note `[[pjm-deploys-reliability-backstop-procurement-framework]]` and `[[ferc-section-206-large-load-interconnection-rto-filings]]`. Wait, let's look at the existing notes. The note `[[pjm-deploys-reliability-backstop-procurement-framework]]` is titled `PJM Deploys and Accelerates Reliability Backstop Procurement Framework`. Let's read this note to see what's in there. I will fetch its content using `read_notes` or since I have its slug `pjm-deploys-reliability-backstop-procurement-framework`, let's see if I can query it or if I should search for it. Ah, let's write an updated note for it. But wait, let's do more research first. Let's search for the Oregon PUC Schedule 96 decision. The application for reconsideration is due by September 4, 2026. Let's see if there is any update on Oregon PUC Schedule 96. Let's search `Oregon PUC Schedule 96` or `Oregon PUC PGE Schedule 96 reconsideration` or `Oregon PUC Docket UM 2377`. Let's do a search.

Let's fetch the eDockets page or search for PGE's response or the latest on Docket UM 2377. Let's search for `PGE UM 2377 "Schedule 96" "reconsideration"` to see if there are articles or filings about the applications for reconsideration filed by Amazon Data Services, the Data Center Coalition, Verrus, and AWEC. Let's do a search on `PGE Schedule 96 reconsideration Amazon`.

Let's fetch `https://www.bizjournals.com/portland/news/2026/07/09/big-tech-challenges-pge-data-center-rate-framework.html` or `https://www.tamazari.com/post/the-historic-shift-behind-oregon-s-schedule-96` to understand the exact points of contention in the applications for reconsideration filed by Amazon and the Data Center Coalition. Let's start with `https://www.tamazari.com/post/the-historic-shift-behind-oregon-s-schedule-96` or `https://apps.puc.state.or.us/edockets/DocketNoLayout.asp?DocketID=24470` to see PGE's Response to Applications for Reconsideration or Rehearing. Let's do a search or fetch. Let's fetch `https://www.tamazari.com/post/the-historic-shift-behind-oregon-s-schedule-96` first. If that fails, I can look for other sources. Let's try to fetch it.

This is extremely interesting. Let's see what else we can find about the Oregon PUC Schedule 96. The article says: - Oregon's POWER Act (passed in 2025) requires investor-owned utilities to place qualifying data centers and cryptocurrency facilities (with contracted capacity >20 MW) in a separate customer class, assign the costs of serving them to that class, and protect other customers from cost shifting. - Portland General Electric's Schedule 96 is the first real-world implementation of that law, approved by the OPUC in May 2026 and effective July 8, 2026. - It increased rates for PGE data center customers by an average of 29%. - It decreased residential rates by an average of 1.3%, commercial rates by 2.1%, and other industrial rates by 1.4%. - Typical residential customer using 780 kWh/month saves about $1.91. - S96 features: minimum demand charges require paying for 90% of requested generation and transmission capacity even if they use less; contract lengths start at 10 years and up to 30 years; exit fees. - S96 customers with >=100 MW of capacity must pay an additional 1-cent-per-kWh surcharge to support programs reducing residential costs and helping address energy burdens for lower-income households. - Amazon and the Data Center Coalition are challenging this rate framework (filing for reconsideration). Let's do a search on `Amazon data center coalition challenge PGE rates` or `reconsideration PGE Schedule 96` to get more details on Amazon's challenge. Let's do a search.

Let's fetch `https://www.bizjournals.com/portland/news/2026/07/09/big-tech-challenges-pge-data-center-rate-framework.html` to find the exact details. Let's see if we can read it. If it's paywalled, we might get the key text or we can search for other articles explaining the challenge. Let's try to fetch it first.

Ah, it's a short preview because of a paywall. Let's do a search on Google for the specific arguments used by Amazon and the Data Center Coalition in their petitions for reconsideration of PGE's Schedule 96 in Oregon. Let's search `Amazon "Schedule 96" "reconsideration" "UM 2377"` or `"Data Center Coalition" PGE "UM 2377" reconsideration`. Let's do a search.

Let's do a broader search: `Oregon PUC PGE Schedule 96 Amazon challenge` or `Oregon PUC PGE Schedule 96 "reconsideration"`. Let's search `Amazon Web Services "Schedule 96" Oregon PUC`. Let's do a search.

Let's fetch `https://apps.puc.state.or.us/edockets/DocketNoLayout.asp?DocketID=24470` to see what filings have been made on the Oregon PUC docket regarding the applications for reconsideration. If we can get some text from this eDockets page, it will tell us exactly what's being disputed. Let's try to fetch it.

Excellent! We see: - On July 6, 2026, applications for reconsideration/rehearing were filed by: - Amazon Data Services (ADS) - Data Center Coalition (DCC) - Alliance of Western Energy Consumers (AWEC) - Verrus, LLC (Motion for Clarification and Application for Reconsideration) - On July 21, 2026: - PGE filed its Response to Applications for Reconsideration or Rehearing. - Coalition's and CUB's (Citizens' Utility Board) Response to Applications for Rehearing or Reconsideration was filed. - The order on reconsideration is due by September 4, 2026. Let's do a search to find details of the arguments. Why are Amazon and DCC challenging the PGE Schedule 96 rate framework? Let's search for `Amazon "Schedule 96" "reconsideration"` or `Amazon Data Services "UM 2377" "reconsideration"`. Let's see what we can find. Let's do a web search.

Look at that third search result: `https://apps.puc.state.or.us/edockets/edocs.asp?FileType=HAG&FileName=um2377hag347457029.pdf&DocketID=24470&numSequence=222` This is the PDF of Amazon Data Services' (ADS) July 6, 2026 Application for Rehearing or Reconsideration! Let's fetch this PDF or see if we can search for some text in it or see if it's readable. Wait, the PDF itself cannot be fetched directly because it's a PDF, but let's see if we can do a web search on the text inside or if we can fetch it. Ah, `web_fetch` might not support PDF if it's binary, but let's see if we can search for details or if `web_fetch` can parse it. Wait, the tool description says "Fetch one URL and return its main-content markdown." Let's try to search Google for the contents of Amazon's application for reconsideration under UM 2377 to see what we can find. Let's do a search.

This is amazing, the PDF was parsed or has index text in the search. Let's do a search on: `site:apps.puc.state.or.us/edockets/edocs.asp "um2377hag347457029.pdf"` or search with quotes to see if we can get more snippets of Amazon's Application for Reconsideration. Or we can search for `"ADS requests rehearing or reconsideration of the portion of the Order directing Portland"`. Let's do a search.

Ah! Look at this phrase: `LEUFonly interconnection queue portion of the Order. ADS accordingly requests the Commission revise the Order to interpret...` Wait! "LEUF" stands for Large Energy Use Facility (which is defined in Oregon's POWER Act as facilities >20 MW). Let's see what else. Let's do a search for `"LEUF" "UM 2377" "reconsideration"` or `"LEUF-only interconnection queue"`. Let's do a search.

Ah

I will now update the findings for the Oregon POWER Act and PGE's Schedule 96 tariff under the slug `oregon-pwr-act-pge-schedule-96-tariff`, incorporating the details of the July 2026 applications for reconsideration filed by Amazon Data Services and the Data Center Coalition.

I will now update the PJM Reliability Backstop note under the slug `pjm-deploys-reliability-backstop-procurement-framework` to incorporate the details of PJM's formal July 27, 2026 Board proposal to FERC. This includes the planned September 30, 2026 backstop auction, the proposed $555/MW-day price cap, the exclusion of non-power-bringing large loads from future demand forecasts, and the new "Interim Resource Adequacy Service" (IRAS) curtailment framework. Let's write the note.

I will now resolve the relevant threads that have been addressed by the findings of this cycle: 1. `Oregon PUC Decision on Amazon and DCC Reconsideration of Schedule 96` (thread ID: `019f5a96-90e2-7c84-b08d-97328f23d33d`) is partially addressed since we have documented the formal applications, the arguments, the responses, and the upcoming decision date of September 4, 2026. However, since the final decision has not yet been issued (it is due September 4, 2026, and today is August 24, 2026), I will keep this watch open but record that the filings have occurred. Wait, let's look at the threads. The watch `Oregon PUC Decision on Amazon and DCC Reconsideration of Schedule 96` has a fire date of `2026-09-05T00:00:00Z`. It has not fired yet since today is August 24, 2026. I should not record it as resolved or fired yet, as the ruling has not landed. The watch `PJM Accelerated Backstop Reliability Auction Results` has a fire date of `2026-10-01T00:00:00Z` and a trigger of releasing results. The results are expected in early December 2026 (the auction is scheduled for Sept 30 to Oct 21, 2026). Let's update its description or record a watch event if appropriate, but wait, the auction hasn't happened yet. Wait! Let's check if there are other threads we can resolve or if we should register new watches. We don't have any new threads to resolve or record, but we can register watches or record events. Let's see: the PJM Board officially proposed and accelerated the Reliability Backstop Procurement framework, which is a major update. We can record a watch event or update our watches. Wait, let's look at the watch `PJM Accelerated Backstop Reliability Auction Results` (thread ID: `019eca69-825a-7c29-b776-0fa0f8768504`). The description says: "PJM has accelerated its emergency backstop reliability auction to September 2026...". This is exactly what we have confirmed with PJM's July 27, 2026 board proposal (scheduled for Sept 30 to Oct 21, 2026). This watch is still ongoing/one-shot and will fire when results are released in early December 2026. Let's call `finish_cycle` since we have updated our living set of findings with high-quality, cited, concrete evidence and verbatim quotes. Let's call `finish_cycle`.

I have completed this research cycle. Here is a summary of what has been accomplished: 1. **Oregon POWER Act & Schedule 96 Tariff Updated (`[[oregon-pwr-act-pge-schedule-96-tariff]]`):** * Documented Portland General Electric's landmark Schedule 96 tariff implementation, which went into effect on July 8, 2026, resulting in a **29% average rate increase** for data centers, while decreasing residential bills by 1.3%. * Identified and detailed the formal pushback from Big Tech. On July 6, 2026, **Amazon Data Services (ADS)** and the **Data Center Coalition (DCC)** filed applications for reconsideration (Docket **UM 2377**), challenging the "LEUF-only interconnection queue" and arguing that restrictions on PGE's direct access program make it an unviable path to bypass grid delays. * Noted that PGE and the Citizens' Utility Board (CUB) filed responses defending the ratepayer-protection tariff on July 21, 2026, with a final OPUC decision due by **September 4, 2026**. 2. **PJM Emergency Backstop & IRAS Frameworks Updated (`[[pjm-deploys-reliability-backstop-procurement-framework]]`):** * Documented the PJM Board's July 27, 2026 formal proposal to FERC, which schedules the emergency **Reliability Backstop Procurement (RBP)** auction to run from **September 30 to October 21, 2026**, targeting a 6.8 GW capacity shortfall. * Detailed the proposed increase in the supply offer cap to **$555/MW-day** (up from $325/MW-day) and the board's directive to exclude non-power-bringing large loads from future capacity auction demand forecasts to shield consumers. * Highlighted the new **Interim Resource Adequacy Service (IRAS)** curtailment framework, scheduled for June 1, 2027, forcing non-power-bringing data centers to shut down or run on backup generation during grid stress. * Documented massive cost escalations in PJM, including Competitive Power Ventures (CPV) dropping out of an Ohio project after receiving a staggering **$878/kW interconnection estimate**. The next cycles will monitor the Oregon PUC's decision on Amazon's reconsideration petition (due September 4, 2026) and the commencement of PJM's emergency backstop capacity auction on September 30, 2026.