Cycle on Sep 28, 2026

I'll start this research cycle by reviewing the topic's state — open threads, existing notes — and pulling market data for the core utilities named in the brief.

The topic has a rich existing base — 20 notes and 11 open watches. Key timing note: the **Louisiana LED Ratepayer Protection Framework watch (fire date 2026-09-25)** was due three days ago, and the **PJM backstop auction** is expected around now. Let me pull market data for the core tickers and check on those catalysts.

Market data shows the derating deepened significantly — NRG is now -45% from its high, CEG -34.5%, VST -33.9%, while regulated names (SO, D, AEP) are down ~15%. I also found two major new gubernatorial executive orders (Virginia Sep 18, Maryland Sep 23) and PJM IMM cost attribution figures. Let me confirm the key sources and check the Louisiana framework watch.

Strong evidence gathered. Now let me check the Louisiana LED framework (watch was due Sep 25), get EIA electricity price data (explicitly in the brief), and confirm PJM backstop auction details.

The EIA STEO gives the national price data the brief asks for, and the Landgate piece has detailed backstop auction mechanics. Now let me confirm whether Louisiana LED released its Ratepayer Protection Framework (the watch was due Sep 25) and get the multistate regulatory landscape.

The JD Supra roundup gives me the full multistate governor-action landscape, and the LED page confirms the June EO but not yet the 90-day framework release. Two final checks: confirm the Louisiana framework release status, and scan for any major new PPAs/load commitments this week.

Louisiana framework release remains unconfirmed — I'll leave that watch open. One promising new lead: a Georgia Power–Google nuclear agreement at Vogtle/Hatch. Let me verify it before writing findings.

Confirmed — a significant new deal: Google will pay for nuclear uprates at Vogtle/Hatch via a new "NU-1" tariff, filed at the Georgia PSC September 21. Let me get the primary release for exact figures.

All evidence is in hand. Now I'll write the findings — six updates covering: the deepened equity de-rating, the governor-level EO wave, PJM's monitor quantifying data-center cost attribution, Vistra's equity-kicker PPA model, the Georgia Power–Google nuclear deal, and the EIA national price/demand outlook.

Let me write the notes properly now — first the de-rating update and the governor EO wave.

Now the PJM cost-attribution update and the Vistra equity-kicker PPA note.

Now the Georgia Power–Google nuclear deal update and the new EIA price/demand note.

All six findings are written. Now let me register the forward-looking items: the monthly EIA STEO release, the Virginia 2027 legislative session, the Georgia PSC ruling on the Google deal, and the regional price-mapping investigation thread.

The thread kind "investigation" was rejected — let me retry with kind "question".

The cycle is complete. Here's a summary of what this research cycle found and persisted: ## Cycle Summary — AI Power & Ratepayers (Sept 28, 2026) **Six findings written** (5 updates to standing notes, 1 new): 1. **`ai-power-trade-derating`** — The de-rating deepened and bifurcated: merchant IPPs are down 32–45% from 52-week highs (NRG -45.1%, CEG -34.5%, VST -33.9%, TLN -31.7%) while regulated names are down only ~15% (SO, D, AEP). Notably, CEG/VST/SO/D all *beat* Q2 estimates and still sold off to RSI 19–22 — this is multiple compression driven by regulatory caps, not earnings. Talen's Q2 ($0.16 vs $3.20 est) and 16.4x leverage make it the most stressed expression of the trade. 2. **`regulatory-backlash-data-center-ratepayer-protections`** — The backlash moved up to governors: Spanberger's Virginia EO (Sept 18, by-right ban proposal, NDA ban, on top of the nation's first $0.011/kWh data-center consumption tax) and Moore's Maryland EO (Sept 23, 25 MW state review, "pay their own way or they need to go away"), plus a ten-state Q2 roundup including NJ's curtail-before-residential Fair Share Act. 3. **`pjm-2027-2028-capacity-auction-price-cap`** — The market monitor's official attribution: data centers caused **$6.3B (38%) of the $16.4B** 2028/29 auction and **$29.4B (46%) of $63.6B** over four auctions. Backstop auction confirmed: Sept 30–Oct 21, up to $20B, $555/MW-day cap, results Dec 2. 4. **`kkr-vistra-helix-digital-infrastructure-ai-power`** — Vistra's new 20-year, 200–207 MW PPA with New Era (Odessa gas plant, co-located) includes a **5% equity stake in the data center itself** — IPPs now capture equity upside, not just power margin. 5. **`georgia-power-large-load-contracting-framework`** — Google will fund ~96 MW of Vogtle/Hatch nuclear uprates under a new NU-1 tariff, claiming ~$900M in customer benefits — the hyperscaler-funds-generation template, pending PSC approval. 6. **`eia-electricity-price-demand-outlook`** (new) — EIA STEO: residential prices 17.30 → 18.20 → 18.59 ¢/kWh (2025–27), record demand attributed to data centers. **Housekeeping:** 3 new watches (monthly STEO releases, Virginia's 2027 by-right bill, Georgia PSC's NU-1 ruling) and 1 new thread (state-level price divergence mapping). The Louisiana LED framework watch (due Sept 25) could not be confirmed as released, so it stays open.

The research cycle is complete. All findings are persisted to the topic, watches are registered for the upcoming catalysts (FERC's IRAS ruling mid-October, the PJM backstop auction results December 2, the Georgia PSC elections November 3, and the ERCOT audit in December), and the regional price-mapping question is queued for the next cycle.