Cycle on Jul 20, 2026

I will list the active threads for the topic to see what specific questions or watches are currently open.

I will read the existing notes to see what information has already been recorded and what slugs are currently in use.

I will search for PJM's 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction (BRA) results. The previous thread notes that the auction was scheduled to close on July 7, 2026, and its results are a major milestone for electricity pricing in PJM. I will search for the results of the PJM 2028/2029 capacity auction.

I see that PJM's 2028/2029 capacity auction results have been released. In this auction, pricing hit the new $325/MW-day price cap across the region, and there was a capacity shortfall. I will fetch the Utility Dive article on the PJM capacity auction results to get the rich details. Let's do a fetch of `https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-capacity-auction-price-cap-reserve-shortfall/825282/`.

This is an incredibly rich source of information for this cycle! Let's analyze the findings: 1. PJM's 2028/2029 BRA (Base Residual Auction) results were released. 2. Prices hit the new price cap of $325/MW-day across the region (as expected under the newly extended price collar framework). 3. Without the price collar, the auction would have cleared at nearly $555/MW-day across PJM's footprint and $777/MW-day in PJM's Commonwealth Edison (ComEd) zone in northern Illinois. The total footprint cost would have been $29.7 billion instead of $16.4 billion. 4. There is a reserve shortfall: the auction left PJM with a ~6.8 GW shortfall below its 20% installed reserve margin target (up from 6.5 GW in the 2027/2028 auction). 5. Only ~525 MW in new resources cleared (including 208 MW of uprates), which is down from 774 MW in the previous auction. 6. The auction was affected by a 2 GW increase in forecast demand, largely driven by data center development. 7. Major IPPs reported their capacity revenue/cleared capacity for the 2028/2029 year: - Constellation Energy (CEG) cleared 18,875 MW (up from 17,950 MW) for ~$2.2 billion in capacity revenue. - Vistra (VST) cleared 10,924 MW (up from 10,566 MW) for ~$1.3 billion in capacity revenue. - Talen Energy (TLN) cleared 10,180 MW (up from 8,745 MW) for ~$1.2 billion in capacity revenue. 8. PJM is preparing to file proposals with FERC for a backstop capacity auction (Reliability Backstop Procurement) and a "connect and manage" framework for data centers. It needs to file this month (July 2026) for the auction to be held in September as planned. Wait, this provides direct, concrete information to resolve one of our threads: - Thread ID `019ea65a-ea15-7c43-a1be-b796d6b5a6cb`: "PJM 2028/2029 Capacity Auction Closes under Price Collar" (PJM 2028/2029 capacity auction results are released, showing clearing prices and whether they hit the price cap). Yes! This thread is fully resolved. It was expected to fire on July 8, 2026 (results came out mid-July). Let's check the other threads. Is there any news on the Oregon PUC decision on Amazon and DCC Reconsideration of Schedule 96? (Thread ID: `019f5a96-90e2-7c84-b08d-97328f23d33d`, due Sep 4, 2026). Is there any news on the Louisiana PSC vote on Entergy's Cottonwood plant or Entergy's seven gas plants for Meta? (Thread IDs: `019f368a-84de-7966-96da-e934c102b368` and `019eee6e-7999-77fb-81a7-d30d411389c0`). Let's search for these. Let's run a search for Louisiana PSC Entergy Cottonwood or Meta. Or Oregon PUC Schedule 96. Let's do some searches. Let's first look at Louisiana PSC.

Let's search for recent updates on Louisiana PSC Entergy Cottonwood or Meta to see if there is any new activity in July 2026. Let's search with freshness="month" or recent=true. Or let's search specifically for the LPSC meeting or docket details. Let's search for: `Louisiana PSC "Cottonwood" 2026` or `Louisiana PSC Entergy "Meta" 2026`. Let's do a search.

This is extremely important. Let's look at the results: - Meta announced a doubling in size of its AI supercluster under construction in northern Louisiana. "Louisiana AI Project to Grow to 5 GW" (RTO Insider, 5 days ago - July 15, 2026). - Governor Jeff Landry signed an executive order (late June 2026) aimed at shielding Louisiana utility customers from data center power costs. - There is an Axios New Orleans article from July 13, 2026 (6 days ago): "Report questions Entergy's Meta rate promise in Louisiana". - Let's fetch the RTO Insider article `https://www.rtoinsider.com/136600-louisiana-ai-project-to-grow-to-5gw/` and the Axios New Orleans article `https://www.axios.com/local/new-orleans/2026/07/13/meta-rate-increase-louisiana-power-plants` to get the details. Let's do a search for the Axios URL first or fetch it directly. Let's fetch the RTO Insider article first. Wait, let's fetch both. Let's start with the RTO Insider article.

Ah, the RTO Insider page is quite short in its main content text, but let's look for more. Let's fetch the Axios New Orleans article `https://www.axios.com/local/new-orleans/2026/07/13/meta-rate-increase-louisiana-power-plants`.

This is incredibly clear. Let's look at the details: 1. Meta's Hyperion data center in Richland Parish, Louisiana, is expanding. In March, Entergy Louisiana announced seven new plants for Meta. Now, there is a total plan for 10 new power plants to provide Meta around 7,500 MW (or is it 5,000 MW based on the RTO Insider title "Louisiana AI Project to Grow to 5 GW"?) Wait, let's look at the capacity. The Axios article says: "The 10 new power plants will have the capacity to provide Meta around 7,500 megawatts of power, according to numbers Entergy's provided." Let's see: "Louisiana AI Project to Grow to 5 GW" (from RTO Insider, July 14, 2026). Let's search for this title on Google to see if we can get more text on the 5 GW expansion details. Let's do a search.

This is a massive development. On Monday, July 13, 2026, Meta announced that its data center under construction in Richland Parish, Louisiana (the Hyperion AI supercluster), will expand to 5 GW of compute capacity, with total investment reaching $50 billion. Let's fetch the CNBC article `https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/13/meta-louisiana-data-center-investment-reaches-50-billion-amid-ai-push.html` or the Reuters article `https://www.reuters.com/business/meta-expands-louisiana-data-center-5-gigawatts-compute-capacity-2026-07-13/` to see the details of this expansion. Let's fetch the Reuters article.

Let's pull a market view of Entergy (ETR) to see if we can get details on Entergy's stock and fundamentals, and see if it's in the system. Let's do `market_view(kind="ticker", id="ETR")`. Let's also do `market_view(kind="ticker", id="META")` or other tickers. Wait, let's search if Entergy (ETR) is available. Yes, any ticker is composed on first request. Let's call `market_view` for ETR.

This is very helpful. Let's look at what other tickers we want to pull. Let's pull Constellation Energy (CEG), Vistra (VST), and Talen Energy (TLN). Let's see if we can pull them. Let's call `market_view` for CEG, VST, and TLN. Let's start with `market_view(kind="ticker", id="CEG")`.

Now let's pull a market view on Vistra (VST) and Talen Energy (TLN). Let's start with VST.

Let's also do a search on Talen Energy (TLN). Let's see if we can get a market view or search results. Let's run a search for Talen Energy's recent PJM capacity auction results. Yes, in the Utility Dive article, it says Talen Energy cleared 10,180 MW (up from 8,745 MW), which will generate $1.2 billion in capacity revenue for the company. Let's see if there is any other news on Talen Energy. Let's do `market_view(kind="ticker", id="TLN")`. Let's see if it works.

Excellent. This is wonderful data. Let's see if we can search for Oregon PUC Schedule 96. The thread ID `019f5a96-90e2-7c84-b08d-97328f23d33d` is: "Oregon PUC Decision on Amazon and DCC Reconsideration of Schedule 96". The trigger is "OPUC issues a ruling on the applications for reconsideration of the Schedule 96 tariff." The fire date is around September 4, 2026. Let's search if there have been any new developments in Oregon or PGE Schedule 96. Let's do a web search.

Let's check if there has been any ruling on the reconsideration of Schedule 96 in Oregon yet. Since the fire date is September 4, 2026, it is likely that the Oregon PUC hasn't ruled yet, but we should make sure. Let's search for `Oregon PUC "reconsideration" "Schedule 96"` or `UM 2377 "reconsideration"`. Let's do a search.

This is very helpful. The Oregon PUC docket UM 2377 indeed remains active, with the applications for reconsideration filed, but no final ruling on the reconsideration has been issued yet. The thread `019f5a96-90e2-7c84-b08d-97328f23d33d` is correctly registered and we will keep watching it. Wait! Let's check the Louisiana PSC threads: 1. Thread `019f368a-84de-7966-96da-e934c102b368`: "Louisiana PSC Vote on Entergy's $1.4B Cottonwood Plant Purchase" (expected fire date Aug 13, 2026). Wait, the Axios article from July 13, 2026 says: "This is nowhere near done," says Lewis, who estimated it would take the commission another five or six months before a vote might happen. Wait, let's look at this carefully. The thread states: "The Louisiana Public Service Commission (LPSC) is scheduled to meet on August 12, 2026, to discuss and potentially vote on Entergy Louisiana's proposed $1.4 billion purchase of the Cottonwood gas power plant... Future cycles must track the LPSC's final vote..." But Davante Lewis (Public Service Commissioner) said on July 13, 2026: "This is nowhere near done," and estimated it would take the commission another five or six months before a vote might happen. This is a key update! The timeline for the Cottonwood plant vote has been pushed out significantly (likely 5-6 months, meaning Dec 2026 or Jan 2027) rather than the previously scheduled August 12, 2026 meeting. Let's make sure we update the watch or record a note about this. Wait, let's look at the other Louisiana PSC thread: 2. Thread `019eee6e-7999-77fb-81a7-d30d411389c0`: "Louisiana PSC Decision on Entergy's Seven New Gas Plants for Meta". The KPEL965 article states: "The commission is expected to take up Entergy's fast-tracked seven-plant application again in December..." Let's see if we can find more details on this. Let's search for the Governor Jeff Landry executive order in Louisiana. The Axios article says: "Gov. Jeff Landry signed an executive order directing Louisiana Economic Development to create a 'Ratepayer and Community Protection Framework' within the next three months for businesses looking to build data centers using state tax incentives." This is a massive regulatory development. Let's do a search on Governor Jeff Landry's executive order on data center requirements in Louisiana. Let's fetch some more details.

Let's fetch `https://lailluminator.com/2026/06/26/landry-order-data-power/` to get the details of Governor Landry's executive order.

This is incredibly useful. Let's synthesize this: - Meta's Hyperion data center project in Richland Parish, Louisiana, has officially expanded to 5 GW of compute capacity, with total investment reaching over $50 billion (up from a prior estimate of 2 GW and $27 billion). - Under the agreement, Entergy Louisiana is planning to build 10 new power plants (including the seven fast-tracked gas plants announced in March 2026) to provide around 7,500 MW of power capacity to serve Meta. - On June 25, 2026, Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry signed Executive Order JML-26-058, directing Louisiana Economic Development (LED) to establish a "Ratepayer and Community Protection Framework" within 90 days. Under this framework, data centers must comply with cost-allocation and ratepayer protection conditions to qualify for the state's Data Center Sales and Use Tax Exemption. - The executive order was driven by a report from PSC consultant Lane Sisung warning that Entergy Louisiana's proposed $1.8 billion purchase of the Cottonwood Generation Facility (which Entergy says is needed to bridge the power gap before the Meta-specific plants are built) would result in a ratepayer bill hike of $8 to $13 per month. Sisung found the skyrocketing price of Cottonwood (more than 3x its 2024 transaction price) was "predominantly attributable" to Meta's massive power needs. - Commissioner Davante Lewis indicated that the PSC's review of the Cottonwood purchase is "nowhere near done," estimating that a final vote is at least 5 to 6 months away (pushing the timeline from August 2026 to late 2026 or early 2027). Let's check the existing notes: - `louisiana-ai-data-center-power-boom`: "Louisiana AI Data Center Power Boom: Meta's Project Escalates Generation Obligations and Ratepayer Backlash" - Last updated July 13, 2026. Let's update this note to capture these major new developments: 1. Meta expanding Hyperion to 5 GW and $50B on July 13, 2026. 2. Gov. Landry's June 25, 2026 Executive Order JML-26-058 and the "Ratepayer and Community Protection Framework". 3. The delayed timeline for the Cottonwood plant vote (now expected in 5-6 months, around late 2026/early 2027, rather than August 2026). Wait, what about PJM? We have notes: - `pjm-2027-2028-capacity-auction-price-cap`: "PJM 2027/2028 Capacity Auction Clears at Price Cap" - `ferc-approves-pjm-capacity-price-collar-extension`: "FERC Approves PJM Capacity Price Collar Extension through 2030 to Protect Ratepayers" - `pjm-deploys-reliability-backstop-procurement-framework`: "PJM Deploys and Accelerates Reliability Backstop Procurement Framework" Let's write a new note or update an existing one for the 2028/2029 PJM Capacity Auction. Wait, let's look at `pjm-2027-2028-capacity-auction-price-cap`. This was about the 2027/2028 auction. The 2028/2029 auction is a brand new development that took place in July 2026. Wait, should we create a new note with a durable slug? Or is there an existing note we can update? Let's look at the slugs: - `pjm-2027-2028-capacity-auction-price-cap` is specific to 2027/2028. But wait! The guidelines state: "Name a slug for the DURABLE SUBJECT it tracks: the throughline, entity, or running debate (`ai-coding-backlash`, `nvidia-datacenter-margins`) — never the transient story-of-the-day (`sp-h-c99-library`, `q3-earnings-beat`), which can never recur." So a slug like `pjm-capacity-market-pricing-and-shortfalls` or `pjm-capacity-auctions-price-collar` or `pjm-capacity-auction-clearing-prices` would be much more durable than `pjm-2027-2028-capacity-auction-price-cap`. Wait, let's see if we can update `pjm-2027-2028-capacity-auction-price-cap` or create a new durable note. Wait, `pjm-2027-2028-capacity-auction-price-cap` already exists from a prior cycle. Let's look at its content to see if we should rename it or keep it and write a more durable note for PJM capacity auctions. Actually, if we write a note with a durable slug, say `pjm-capacity-auction-pricing-and-shortfalls`, we can merge the 2027/2028 and 2028/2029 auction dynamics into it. Wait, let's read the existing note `pjm-2027-2028-capacity-auction-price-cap`. Let's fetch it first to see how it looks. Oh, wait, we don't have a direct tool to read a specific note's full body except that `read_notes` gives us a preview. Let's see if we can search for other utilities or other states. Let's do a search for: - American Electric Power (AEP) Ohio data center tariff PUCO approval. - Georgia Power large load framework. - Oregon PWR Act PGE Schedule 96. Let's see if there are any recent updates on AEP's data center tariff or PUCO (Public Utilities Commission of Ohio). Let's do a search for PUCO AEP Ohio data center tariff.

Let's search for any recent updates on AEP Ohio's data center load or tariff in 2026. Let's search for: `AEP Ohio 2026 "data center"` or `AEP Ohio PUCO "data center" 2026`. Let's do a search.

Let's look at the AEP Ohio update on data center load under contract from February 2026. Wait, let's fetch the Ironton Tribune article or do a search for: `AEP Ohio "February 20" 2026 "data center"` or `AEP Ohio "updates commission" "data center"`. Let's search.

Let's fetch the Yahoo Finance article `https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aep-ohio-updates-commission-data-232000051.html` or search for the text of that article to see what the actual load under contract is. Let's do a search for the text or fetch the Yahoo Finance URL. Let's fetch the Yahoo Finance URL.

This is incredibly valuable and highly relevant to the "divergence between utility load forecasts and what's actually contracted" part of the brief. Let's analyze this: - Prior to the PUCO's approval of AEP Ohio's Data Center Tariff, developers submitted requests for 30,000 MW. - After the Data Center Tariff was implemented (requiring large data centers to pay for a minimum of 85% of their subscribed energy via take-or-pay contracts and provide financial collateral), the pipeline was significantly right-sized. - As of February 12, 2026, data centers have signed binding contracts under the tariff for 5,642 MW. - Adding this to the 12,219 MW of contracts signed *before* the tariff went into effect, AEP Ohio has a total of 17,861 MW of contracted data center projects scheduled to come online through 2035. - This contracted capacity of 17,861 MW is roughly double AEP Ohio's historic peak demand (which has ranged from 8,000 MW to 10,500 MW for all other customers combined). - This is a stunning set of numbers that perfectly demonstrates the "divergence between utility load forecasts (the 30,000 MW request pipeline) and what's actually contracted (17,861 MW total, of which 5,642 MW is under the new tariff)." Let's check if we have an existing note on AEP Ohio. Yes, we have: `aep-ohio-data-center-tariff-puco-approval` ("American Electric Power Raises Capex to $78B to Serve 63 GW Sourcing Pipeline"). Let's update this note to capture these specific, concrete figures from AEP Ohio's February 20, 2026 update. Wait! Let's pull a market view on American Electric Power (AEP). Let's call `market_view(kind="ticker", id="AEP")` to see its stock and fundamentals. This will allow us to ground our update with the latest financial numbers and cite the market view URL.

Ah, the web_search budget is spent. No problem, we have got incredible, rich data from our searches and market views to write extremely substantive notes. Let's review what we have: 1. **PJM 2028/2029 Capacity Auction Results:** - Clearing price hit the price cap of $325/MW-day across the region. - Without the price collar, it would have cleared at nearly $555/MW-day footprint-wide and $777/MW-day in ComEd (northern Illinois), costing $29.7B instead of $16.4B. - Reserve shortfall grew to ~6.8 GW below the 20% target (up from 6.5 GW in 2027/2028). - Only ~525 MW in new resources cleared (down from 774 MW). - Constellation Energy (CEG) cleared 18,875 MW (~$2.2B capacity revenue), Vistra (VST) cleared 10,924 MW (~$1.3B capacity revenue), Talen Energy (TLN) cleared 10,180 MW (~$1.2B capacity revenue). - PJM is proposing a backstop capacity auction in September 2026 and a "connect and manage" framework. - This resolves the thread: `019ea65a-ea15-7c43-a1be-b796d6b5a6cb`. 2. **Louisiana AI Data Center Power Boom & Meta's 5 GW Expansion:** - Meta announced (on July 13, 2026) that its Hyperion AI supercluster in Richland Parish, Louisiana will expand to 5 GW of compute capacity, with total investment reaching over $50 billion (up from 2 GW and $27 billion). - Entergy Louisiana is planning to build 10 new power plants (including the seven fast-tracked gas plants) to serve Meta, providing around 7,500 MW of power capacity. - On June 25, 2026, Governor Jeff Landry signed Executive Order JML-26-058, directing Louisiana Economic Development to establish a "Ratepayer and Community Protection Framework" within 90 days. Data centers must comply with cost-allocation and ratepayer protection conditions to qualify for the state's Data Center Sales and Use Tax Exemption. - The order was triggered by a report from PSC consultant Lane Sisung warning that Entergy Louisiana's proposed $1.8 billion purchase of the Cottonwood Generation Facility (needed to bridge the gap before the Meta-specific plants are built) would result in a ratepayer bill hike of $8 to $13 per month. Sisung found the skyrocketing price of Cottonwood (more than 3x its 2024 transaction price) was "predominantly attributable" to Meta's massive power needs. - Commissioner Davante Lewis indicated that the PSC's review of the Cottonwood purchase is "nowhere near done," estimating that a final vote is at least 5 to 6 months away (pushing the timeline from August 2026 to late 2026 or early 2027). This means we should update our watch for the Cottonwood plant vote timeline. 3. **AEP Ohio Data Center Load Update:** - AEP Ohio filed an update with the PUCO on February 20, 2026, showing that its Data Center Tariff has successfully right-sized its pipeline. - Prior to the tariff, developers submitted requests for 30,000 MW. - Under the tariff (which requires large data centers to pay for a minimum of 85% of their subscribed energy and provide financial collateral), data centers have signed binding contracts for 5,642 MW. - Adding this to the 12,219 MW of contracts signed *before* the tariff went into effect, AEP Ohio has a total of 17,861 MW of contracted data center projects scheduled to come online through 2035. - This contracted capacity of 17,861 MW is roughly double AEP Ohio's historic peak demand (which is 8,000 MW to 10,500 MW). Let's write three notes to capture these developments: 1. Update `pjm-2027-2028-capacity-auction-price-cap` or create a new durable note. Wait, let's look at the existing notes. We have `pjm-2027-2028-capacity-auction-price-cap` ("PJM 2027/2028 Capacity Auction Clears at Price Cap"). Wait, let's update this note to capture both the 2027/2028 and the new 2028/2029 results, but let's change the title to reflect both auctions and keep the slug `pjm-2027-2028-capacity-auction-price-cap` (or should we update the slug? No, the instructions say: "Slugs are stable identities... NEVER write a note that summarizes the cycle... Name a slug for the DURABLE SUBJECT it tracks... Before you write, scan your prior findings for the slug that already owns this subject and reuse it"). So let's reuse `pjm-2027-2028-capacity-auction-price-cap` to update the PJM capacity auction story. This is the perfect slug to reuse for this subject. Let's make sure we write a comprehensive update under this slug. Wait! Let's check `louisiana-ai-data-center-power-boom`. This is the perfect slug for the Louisiana story. Let's update `louisiana-ai-data-center-power-boom` with the new Meta 5 GW expansion, the Cottonwood controversy, and Governor Landry's executive order. Let's check `aep-ohio-data-center-tariff-puco-approval`. This is the perfect slug for the AEP Ohio story. Let's update it with the February 20, 2026 update on the 17.8 GW contracted load. Wait, let's write the first note: `louisiana-ai-data-center-power-boom`. Let's draft it. Let's review the guidelines for writing notes: - No YAML frontmatter. - The title is the first `# ` heading. - The slug is passed as the slug parameter. - Ground it in concrete evidence: name and link the actual source(s), include 1-2 verbatim quotes kept with their links, then interpret. - To link another finding, use a wikilink — `[[slug]]` (e.g. `[[louisiana-ai-data-center-power-boom]]`). - Cite the `/markets/` URL for any market data we use. Let's write the `louisiana-ai-data-center-power-boom` note first. Let's draft the body. Wait, let's review the exact quotes we have: From Axios New Orleans (July 13, 2026): "With shovels in the ground at Meta's new data center in Richland Parish, Entergy Louisiana is gearing up to power the new facility." "Despite promises that its deal with Meta wouldn't impact ratepayers, a new consultant report says the average Entergy Louisiana customer's bill could go up by $8 or more if the utility's new plan to buy a Texas power plant goes through." "The 10 new power plants will have the capacity to provide Meta around 7,500 megawatts of power, according to numbers Entergy's provided." "Meta pays its own way, both for the power and new infrastructure we use. Our agreement with Entergy is built to guarantee we pay those costs, not Louisianans." "This is nowhere near done," says Lewis, who estimated it would take the commission another five or six months before a vote might happen. From Louisiana Illuminator (June 26, 2026): "The order directs Louisiana Economic Development Secretary Susan Bourgeois to come up with new requirements within 90 days for any data center facility to claim a state tax incentive, the Data Center Sales and Use Tax Exemption." "A recent analysis from consultant Lane Sisung for the Louisiana Public Service Commission predicts Entergy Louisiana’s 1.1 million ratepayers will see significant increases in their monthly bills if the company moves forward with buying an aging power plant in Southeast Texas... predominantly attributable to the power needs for Meta’s Hyperion data center being built in Northeast Louisiana." "The crux of Landry’s executive order is that data centers that cause energy prices to rise across the grid should not qualify for the sales tax break unless other benefits outweigh the high prices." From Reuters (July 13, 2026): "Meta said on Monday its data center in Richland Parish, Louisiana, will expand to 5 gigawatts of compute capacity, with investment in the project increasing to more than $50 billion." "The planned data center, known as Hyperion, was earlier projected to deliver more than 2 gigawatts of compute capacity to support training of large language models..." Let's write the note `louisiana-ai-data-center-power-boom`. Let's call `write_note`.

Now let's write the note for the PJM capacity auction results. Let's look at the existing note: `pjm-2027-2028-capacity-auction-price-cap`. Let's reuse this slug `pjm-2027-2028-capacity-auction-price-cap` to update the PJM capacity auction story. Wait, let's draft the body of this note. Let's review the exact quotes we have from the Utility Dive article (July 15, 2026): "Prices in the PJM Interconnection’s just-held capacity auction for the 2028-2029 delivery year hit a $325/MW-day price cap across its region, as expected, the nation’s largest grid operator said Tuesday." "The auction left PJM with a roughly 6.8 GW shortfall below the grid operator’s 20% installed reserve margin target — an increase from the last auction’s shortfall of 6.5 GW, its first ever. It also drew only about 525 MW in new resources, including 208 MW of uprates to existing generation, down from 774 MW of new resources in the previous auction, held in December." "Without a price collar, the auction would have cleared at nearly $555/MW-day across PJM’s footprint and $777/MW-day in PJM’s Commonwealth Edison zone in northern Illinois, according to the grid operator. The auction’s cost would have been $29.7 billion, up from its actual cost of $16.4 billion, PJM said." "Constellation Energy cleared 18,875 MW in the auction, up from 17,950 MW in the last auction, the independent power producer said in a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing. As a result, it should garner about $2.2 billion in revenue for the 2028/29 capacity year." "Vistra cleared 10,924 MW, up from 10,566 MW, and Talen Energy cleared 10,180 MW, up from 8,745 MW, they said in SEC filings. That will generate $1.3 billion and $1.2 billion in capacity revenue for the companies." Let's write this note under the slug `pjm-2027-2028-capacity-auction-price-cap`. Wait, let's call `write_note`. This is perfect because it updates the PJM capacity market pricing story in place under its existing slug. Let's do it.

Now let's write the third note on AEP Ohio's data center tariff update. This matches the existing note: `aep-ohio-data-center-tariff-puco-approval` ("American Electric Power Raises Capex to $78B to Serve 63 GW Sourcing Pipeline"). Wait, let's draft the body of this note. Let's review the exact quotes we have from the Yahoo Finance / Ironton Tribune article (February 20, 2026): "AEP Ohio's filing updates the energy load for which data centers were willing to sign binding contracts and provide collateral. As of Feb. 12, data centers or data center developers have signed binding contracts with AEP Ohio for 5,642 megawatts." "The 5,642 MW of data center contracts signed under the Data Center Tariff is in addition to 12,219 MW of data center contracts signed before the tariff went into effect. In total, AEP Ohio now has 17,861 MW of contracted data center projects. These contracted data center projects are scheduled to come online progressively through 2035. For context, peak demand across all AEP Ohio customers has ranged between approximately 8,000 MW and 10,500 MW in recent years." "Prior to the PUCO's approval of AEP Ohio's Data Center Tariff, data centers or developers had submitted requests for 30,000 MW, an unprecedented electricity demand for the state." Let's write this note under the slug `aep-ohio-data-center-tariff-puco-approval`. Let's call `write_note`. This is perfect because it updates the AEP Ohio story in place under its existing slug. Let's do it.

This is excellent. We have updated three major notes with extremely rich, citable, and grounded findings. Now, let's look at the threads we can resolve. We have: 1. Thread ID `019ea65a-ea15-7c43-a1be-b796d6b5a6cb`: "PJM 2028/2029 Capacity Auction Closes under Price Collar". We can resolve this thread. Let's call `resolve_thread` for `019ea65a-ea15-7c43-a1be-b796d6b5a6cb`. Let's do that.

Wait, we have another thread that we can record a major event or update for: Thread ID `019f368a-84de-7966-96da-e934c102b368`: "Louisiana PSC Vote on Entergy's $1.4B Cottonwood Plant Purchase". The thread description states: "The Louisiana Public Service Commission (LPSC) is scheduled to meet on August 12, 2026, to discuss and potentially vote on Entergy Louisiana's proposed $1.4 billion purchase of the Cottonwood gas power plant... Future cycles must track the LPSC's final vote..." But our research this cycle shows that the timeline has been pushed out significantly. Commissioner Davante Lewis stated on July 13, 2026, that the review is "nowhere near done" and estimated that a final vote is at least 5 to 6 months away (pushing it to late 2026 or early 2027). Let's update this thread by recording an event, or we can register a new watch with the updated timeline and resolve the old one, or record an event on it. Wait! Let's call `record_event` to update the status of this watch. Wait, let's look at `record_event` parameters: - `thread_id`: `019f368a-84de-7966-96da-e934c102b368` - `cycle_id`: `019e89cc-63bd-7bf7-9468-ba5ee76fd2d8` - `summary`: "LPSC Cottonwood plant vote timeline pushed out 5-6 months due to ratepayer impact concerns." - `outcome`: "delayed/extended timeline" - `resolves`: `false` (keep it open because the vote hasn't happened yet, but we want to log that the timeline has shifted). Let's call `record_event`. This is the perfect way to log this ongoing development.

This is incredible. We have updated the thread and logged the event successfully. Let's check if there are other watches we should register. Wait! Is there a new forward-looking catalyst or tripwire we should watch for? Yes, Governor Landry's Executive Order JML-26-058 directs Louisiana Economic Development (LED) to establish the "Ratepayer and Community Protection Framework" within **90 days** (from June 25, 2026), which would be around **late September 2026**. This is a perfect candidate for a `one_shot` `dated_catalyst` watch! Let's call `record_watch` to register this new watch: - `topic_id`: `019e89cc-63bd-7bf7-9468-ba5ee76fd2d8` - `cycle_id`: `019e89cc-63bd-7bf7-9468-ba5ee76fd2d8` - `title`: "Louisiana LED Releases Ratepayer and Community Protection Framework for Data Centers" - `cardinality`: `one_shot` - `watch_type`: `dated_catalyst` - `fire_date`: `2026-09-25T00:00:00Z` - `entity`: "Louisiana Economic Development (LED)" - `description`: "Louisiana Economic Development must establish a Ratepayer and Community Protection Framework within 90 days of Governor Landry's June 25, 2026 Executive Order JML-26-058. Data centers must comply with these new requirements to claim the state's Data Center Sales and Use Tax Exemption." - `note`: "LED releases the 90-day framework details." Let's call `record_watch`. This is a highly professional way to capture forward-looking regulatory events.

This is absolutely amazing. We have: 1. Resolved the PJM 2028/2029 capacity auction thread (`019ea65a-ea15-7c43-a1be-b796d6b5a6cb`). 2. Logged a major timeline delay event on the Louisiana Cottonwood plant purchase thread (`019f368a-84de-7966-96da-e934c102b368`). 3. Registered a brand-new dated catalyst watch for the Louisiana LED Ratepayer Protection Framework due in late September 2026. 4. Updated three major findings notes with rich, citable, and grounded evidence: - `louisiana-ai-data-center-power-boom` (Meta's 5 GW expansion, the Cottonwood controversy, and Governor Landry's executive order). - `pjm-2027-2028-capacity-auction-price-cap` (The PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction results clearing at the $325/MW-day cap, reserve shortfalls, and IPP capacity revenues). - `aep-ohio-data-center-tariff-puco-approval` (AEP Ohio's February 2026 update on its right-sized 17.8 GW contracted data center load). This has been an incredibly productive research cycle. I am ready to finish the cycle and write up my summary. Let's call `finish_cycle`.

I have completed this research cycle on the AI data center buildout's impact on electricity markets, utilities, and ratepayers. Below is a detailed summary of the findings, updates, and thread resolutions from this cycle. --- ### Summary of Research Cycle Findings #### 1. PJM 2028/2029 Capacity Auction Clears at Price Cap Amid Growing Shortfalls The newly released results of the **PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction (BRA)** provide a critical look at the worsening resource adequacy crisis in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwestern power grids, driven by surging AI power demand: * **Capped Prices:** Pricing cleared at the newly extended price collar of **$325/MW-day** across the entire PJM footprint. Without this regulatory cap, the auction would have cleared at nearly **$555/MW-day footprint-wide** and **$777/MW-day in the Commonwealth Edison (ComEd) zone in northern Illinois**, which would have ballooned the total capacity market cost from $16.4 billion to **$29.7 billion**. * **Widening Capacity Shortfall:** The auction left PJM with a **6.8 GW shortfall** below its 20% installed reserve margin target (up from a 6.5 GW shortfall in the 2027/2028 auction). Only **525 MW** of new resources cleared, down from 774 MW in the previous auction, demonstrating that the current market design is failing to bring online new supply at the rate demand is expanding. * **Massive IPP Windfalls:** Merchant power producers with nuclear and gas fleets captured enormous capacity revenue commitments for the 2028/2029 delivery year: * **Constellation Energy (NASDAQ: CEG)** cleared 18,875 MW, securing **$2.2 billion** in gross capacity revenue. * **Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST)** cleared 10,924 MW, securing **$1.3 billion** in capacity revenue. * **Talen Energy (NASDAQ: TLN)** cleared 10,180 MW, securing **$1.2 billion** in capacity revenue. * **Thread Resolved:** This major milestone fully resolves the thread **"PJM 2028/2029 Capacity Auction Closes under Price Collar"** (`019ea65a-ea15-7c43-a1be-b796d6b5a6cb`). * **Finding Note Updated:** `[[pjm-2027-2028-capacity-auction-price-cap]]` #### 2. Louisiana AI Data Center Boom: Meta's 5 GW Expansion & Escalating Backlash Louisiana has become a primary national battleground for AI power cost-allocation debates: * **Meta's $50 Billion Hyperion Expansion:** On July 13, 2026, Meta announced that its Richland Parish AI supercluster is expanding to **5 GW of compute capacity** with total capital investment crossing **$50 billion** (up from 2 GW and $27 billion initially). Entergy Louisiana (NYSE: ETR) is planning to build a total of **10 new power plants** (primarily gas) to serve Meta, providing around **7,500 MW of capacity** (six times the peak summer demand of New Orleans). * **The Cottonwood Plant Friction:** To bridge the near-term power gap before the Meta-specific plants are built, Entergy Louisiana proposed a $1.8 billion acquisition of the Cottonwood plant in Texas. A PSC consultant report by Lane Sisung warned that this purchase would result in an **$8 to $13 monthly bill hike** for Entergy's 1.1 million ratepayers, finding that the plant's skyrocketing price is "predominantly attributable" to Meta's urgent power needs. * **Delayed Vote Timeline:** Public Service Commissioner Davante Lewis indicated that the PSC's review is "nowhere near done," estimating that a final vote on the Cottonwood transaction is at least **5 to 6 months away** (pushing the timeline from August 2026 into late 2026 or early 2027). * *Action Taken:* Recorded a major timeline delay event on thread `019f368a-84de-7966-96da-e934c102b368`. * **Gov. Landry's Executive Order JML-26-058:** On June 25, 2026, Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry signed an executive order directing Louisiana Economic Development (LED) to establish a **"Ratepayer and Community Protection Framework"** within 90 days. Data centers that cause grid-wide energy prices to rise will be disqualified from claiming the state's lucrative sales tax exemptions unless other local economic benefits outweigh the ratepayer burden. * *Action Taken:* Registered a new `one_shot` `dated_catalyst` watch for the release of the LED framework, expected by **September 25, 2026** (Thread ID: `019f7ea1-964c-7859-a3db-184c934fec57`). * **Finding Note Updated:** `[[louisiana-ai-data-center-power-boom]]` #### 3. AEP Ohio Right-Sizes SPECULATIVE 30 GW Pipeline to 17.8 GW of Binding Contracts AEP Ohio's regulatory filings with the PUCO show how data center tariffs are successfully filtering out speculative load requests: * **Speculative vs. Contracted Load:** Prior to the PUCO's approval of AEP Ohio's Data Center Tariff, developers submitted informal requests for **30,000 MW** of capacity. * **The Take-or-Pay Filter:** Under the new tariff, which requires large data centers to sign binding contracts to pay for a minimum of **85% of their subscribed energy** and provide financial collateral for grid upgrades, the pipeline has been right-sized. As of February 12, 2026, data centers have signed binding contracts under the tariff for **5,642 MW**. * **Massive Contracted Total:** Combined with the 12,219 MW of contracts signed before the tariff, AEP Ohio now has **17,861 MW of contracted data center projects** scheduled to come online through 2035. This contracted capacity is **nearly double** the historic peak demand of AEP Ohio's entire existing customer base (which ranges from 8,000 MW to 10,500 MW). This case study demonstrates how utilities can manage load-growth risk and prevent stranded asset costs from shifting onto residential ratepayers. * **Finding Note Updated:** `[[aep-ohio-data-center-tariff-puco-approval]]` --- ### Summary of Thread Actions | Thread ID | Kind | Title | Action Taken | Outcome / Notes | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | `019ea65a-ea15-7c43-a1be-b796d6b5a6cb` | `watch` | PJM 2028/2029 Capacity Auction Closes under Price Collar | **Resolved** | Resolved via the release of the PJM 2028/2029 BRA results showing clearing prices hitting the $325/MW-day price cap. | | `019f368a-84de-7966-96da-e934c102b368` | `watch` | Louisiana PSC Vote on Entergy's $1.4B Cottonwood Plant Purchase | **Event Recorded** | Logged a timeline delay event (resolves: `false`, salience: 4). The LPSC vote has been delayed by 5-6 months (now expected late 2026/early 2027) due to intense scrutiny over ratepayer bill impacts. | | `019f7ea1-964c-7859-a3db-184c934fec57` | `watch` | Louisiana LED Releases Ratepayer and Community Protection Framework for Data Centers | **Registered New Watch** | Registered a `one_shot` `dated_catalyst` watch for the release of the 90-day framework mandated by Governor Landry's Executive Order JML-26-058 (Expected: September 25, 2026). | All findings have been fully integrated into the living document notes with stable slugs and rigorous grounding in source citations and public market data.