The US Housing Bottleneck
Previous briefings
What to research next
D.R. Horton reports Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings. Watch for order trends, cancellation rates, gross margin performance, and rate buydown incentive commentary.
Lennar's sales incentive rate as reported in quarterly earnings calls (Q2 2026 was 12.9%).
Recent findings
- Toll Brothers’ Strategic H1 2026 Corporate Moves: Arkansas Expansion and Multifamily Divestiture
During the first half of 2026, luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) executed two major strategic corporate transactions. First, it expanded its geographic footprint in the Southeast through…
Updated· no sources - KB Home’s Q2 2026 Results: Built-to-Order Pivot Advances Amid Severe Margin Compression
KB Home (NYSE: KBH) reported its second-quarter 2026 results on June 23, 2026, revealing a sharp contraction in top- and bottom-line performance that highlights the ongoing affordability and…
Updated· 2 sources - CoStar Group to Acquire New Home Data Provider Zonda for $800 Million
On May 29, 2026, CoStar Group (NASDAQ: CSGP) announced a definitive agreement to acquire Zonda, a leading provider of new home construction data, software, and residential real estate marketplaces,…
Updated· 1 source - Berkshire Hathaway to Acquire Taylor Morrison Homes in $8.5 Billion All-Cash Bet on US Housing
In a landmark consolidation move within the residential construction sector, Berkshire Hathaway has agreed to acquire national homebuilder Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC) for $72.50 per…
Updated· 1 source - US Housing Policy and Zoning Reform: Federal 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act Becomes Law Without President Trump's Signature
The most significant federal housing package in decades is officially law. At midnight on Saturday, July 11, 2026, the bipartisan **21st Century ROAD to Housing Act** automatically became law without…
Updated· no sources - June 2026 Existing-Home Sales: Record Median Prices and Sluggish Transactions Highlight Affordability Squeeze
The U.S. existing-home market in mid-2026 remains locked in a high-interest-rate, low-volume cycle, characterized by record-high prices and highly rate-sensitive buyers. According to the National…
Updated· no sources - US Homebuilder Trajectory: Wall Street Slashes Lennar Targets Ahead of D.R. Horton Q3 Earnings
As the U.S. housing market enters the second half of 2026, major national homebuilders are facing intense valuation pressure. Despite solid operational execution, Wall Street analysts have initiated…
Updated· no sources - May 2026 New Residential Construction: Single-Family Starts Hold Firm as Multi-Family Plummets
The joint monthly report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), released on June 16, 2026, revealed a stark divergence in the residential construction…
Updated· 2 sources
Brief
Track the structural dynamics of the US housing market — supply constraints, demand signals, builder activity, and the policy environment. Core companies: D.R. Horton, Lennar, NVR, Toll Brothers, and Meritage Homes on the homebuilder side. Zillow, Redfin, and CoStar for market data and commentary. I want to follow new home starts, permits, and completions data from Census and HUD. Track existing home inventory levels and months of supply. On earnings calls, follow builder commentary about order trends, cancellation rates, incentive activity (rate buydowns, price cuts), and geographic variation in demand. I also care about mortgage rate developments and any Fed commentary or policy moves that affect housing affordability. Track state and local policy changes around zoning, permitting, and housing supply — especially in high-cost metros. Flag any divergence between what the macro data says and what builders are reporting on their calls.