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The US Housing Bottleneck

Started Jun 1, 2026 ·Weekly ·Active · Public

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Brief

Track the structural dynamics of the US housing market — supply constraints, demand signals, builder activity, and the policy environment. Core companies: D.R. Horton, Lennar, NVR, Toll Brothers, and Meritage Homes on the homebuilder side. Zillow, Redfin, and CoStar for market data and commentary. I want to follow new home starts, permits, and completions data from Census and HUD. Track existing home inventory levels and months of supply. On earnings calls, follow builder commentary about order trends, cancellation rates, incentive activity (rate buydowns, price cuts), and geographic variation in demand. I also care about mortgage rate developments and any Fed commentary or policy moves that affect housing affordability. Track state and local policy changes around zoning, permitting, and housing supply — especially in high-cost metros. Flag any divergence between what the macro data says and what builders are reporting on their calls.