Cycle on Jun 29, 2026

I will call `list_threads` to see if there are any open threads or registered watches for this topic.

I will search the web for KB Home's Q2 2026 earnings results, which were scheduled to be released on June 23, 2026, to see if they have fired. I will also check the general macro and sector markets data.

I will fetch the Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and Tickeron or other pages to get the exact numbers for KB Home Q2 2026 earnings, and also search for a press release or transcript. Let's do a search for the exact press release or more details of KB Home Q2 2026 earnings.

I will fetch the HousingWire article on KB Home's Q2 2026 earnings (`https://www.housingwire.com/articles/kb-home-built-to-order-shift/`), the Seeking Alpha page (`https://seekingalpha.com/news/4606452-kb-home-outlines-q3-2026-housing-revenue-1_2b-1_35b-with-gross-margin-16-percentminus-16_6`), and the Stock Titan page (`https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/KBH/8-k-kb-home-reports-material-event-16b3f9cf6c99.html`) to gather detailed financial and operational numbers.

I will fetch the HousingWire article on KB Home's Q2 2026 earnings (`https://www.housingwire.com/articles/kb-home-built-to-order-shift/`) to get more color on their "Built to Order" shift and cancellation rates or pricing incentives.

Now let's check the public markets view of some of the homebuilders and the U.S. macro backdrop. I will call `market_view` for kind='macro' and kind='sector' with real-estate or construction, and also look up some key ticker data. Let's first call `market_view` with `kind='macro'`.

Let's search for US housing macro trends: mortgage rates, homebuilder earnings, new residential construction (starts, permits, completions), and existing-home sales data for May or June 2026. First, let's call `market_view` with `kind='sector'` and `id='real-estate'` or `id='construction'`. Let's check `real-estate` first.

The main homebuilders are LEN (Lennar), DHI (D.R. Horton), NVR (NVR), TOL (Toll Brothers), and MTH (Meritage Homes). I should call `market_view` with `kind='ticker'` for these homebuilders to see their current market valuations and metrics. Let's do `DHI` first, then `LEN`, then `TOL`. Let's run `market_view` calls.

This is very interesting. The news mentions a major housing bill: the "21st Century ROAD to Housing Act" which was recently passed or is being discussed as a major bipartisan housing legislation. Let's do a search on the "21st Century ROAD to Housing Act" to understand what it is and how it affects the homebuilders. First, let's also pull `market_view` for `LEN` and `TOL`. Let's do `LEN` first.

Let's check the other builders: NVR, TOL, MTH. I'll search for the "21st Century ROAD to Housing Act" first, as it appears to be a major new piece of federal legislation affecting homebuilders. Let's do a search on that.

This is a massive piece of legislation that passed both the House and Senate in June 2026, and is now awaiting the President's signature (or has just been signed). This is highly relevant to the "policy environment" aspect of the housing market brief. Let's fetch the Bipartisan Policy Center's explainer: `https://bipartisanpolicy.org/issue-brief/inside-the-deal-whats-in-the-final-21st-century-road-to-housing-act/` and `https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/whats-in-the-21st-century-road-to-housing-act/` to see what exactly this bill does for builders and housing supply. I'll also check the National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC) or NAR explainer. Let's fetch `https://bipartisanpolicy.org/issue-brief/inside-the-deal-whats-in-the-final-21st-century-road-to-housing-act/` first.

Ah, the fetch failed due to a timeout. Let's try fetching the NAR realtor page or searching for other summaries of the bill. Or I can retrieve the Senate press release or another article. Let's fetch `https://www.nar.realtor/news/real-estate-news/modified-21st-century-road-to-housing-act-passes-in-the-house` or do a search for the bill's main provisions. Let's search specifically for what is in the "21st Century ROAD to Housing Act".

Excellent. I have found some very useful documents here. Let's try to fetch the Bipartisan Policy Center explainer again or the NACo (National Association of Counties) article (`https://www.naco.org/news/senate-passes-21st-century-road-housing-act-combining-elements-existing-house-and-senate`) or the section-by-section PDF if we can, or search for the text. Let's do a fetch of `https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/whats-in-the-21st-century-road-to-housing-act/`. Let's see if it works now.

Since the Bipartisan Policy Center site is timing out, let's look for other sources discussing the details. Let's fetch the Baker Botts page (`https://www.bakerbotts.com/thought-leadership/publications/2026/march/the-senate-21st-century-road-to-housing-act-key-implications-for-commercial-real-estate`) or search for more information. Let's do a search on GovTrack or the Senate press release. Let's search for the Senator Crapo press release text or fetch it: `https://www.crapo.senate.gov/media/newsreleases/us-senate-passes-21st-century-road-to-housing-act`. Let's search for that.

Let's fetch the Ohio Press Network article or search for the specific text of the Crapo news release. Let's do a search for the exact text of Senator Crapo's press release or details about the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act. Let's search with: `site:crapo.senate.gov "21st Century ROAD to Housing Act"`. This will give us the exact text.

Let's fetch `https://www.crapo.senate.gov/media/newsreleases/us-senate-passes-21st-century-road-to-housing-act` to get the details of the Crapo-backed provisions.

Let's search for the House passage and the final bill status in June 2026. The Crapo press release says "It awaits further consideration by the U.S. House of Representatives." That was in March 2026. Let's find out what happened in June 2026. In the previous search, we saw: "Financial Services Committee's Bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act Passes House, Heads to President's Desk. June 23, 2026 | Posted in ..." Let's search for this press release or news about the House passing it on June 23, 2026. This is a very recent and massive development! Let's search with: `site:financialservices.house.gov "21st Century ROAD to Housing Act" June 2026`. This will give us the exact details of the final house passage and what changes were made (if any), and whether it has been signed.

Let's fetch `https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=411126` and `https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=411172` and `https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=411124`. Let's fetch `https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=411126` first. This will tell us the details of the passage of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act on its way to the President's desk.

Let's fetch `https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=411172` to see what happened on June 23, 2026 (or thereabouts) when it passed the Senate or went to the President's desk. Let's run `web_fetch`.

Let's search for whether the House has passed the updated Senate-passed bill to send it to the President's desk, and if it has been signed yet. Wait! Let's search for "21st Century ROAD to Housing Act" and "President" or "signed" or "June 2026" or "House passed" to see if the House voted on the final bicameral version. Let's search: `"21st Century ROAD to Housing" "President" OR "signed" OR "House" June 2026`.

Wow! On June 23, 2026, Congress passed the largest housing affordability bill in decades. The NPR article (`https://www.npr.org/2026/06/23/nx-s1-5867575/congress-passes-housing-affordability-bill`) and Bipartisan Policy Center's "Inside the Deal" or GT Law's "House Passes 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act With Changes to Institutional Investor Restrictions" (`https://www.gtlaw.com/en/insights/2026/6/house-passes-21st-century-road-to-housing-act-with-changes-to-institutional-investor-restrictions`) and Action Campaign's "House Passes Major Housing Legislation" (`https://rentalhousingaction.org/2026/06/house-passes-major-housing-legislation/`) are highly valuable. Let's fetch the NPR article (`https://www.npr.org/2026/06/23/nx-s1-5867575/congress-passes-housing-affordability-bill`) and GT Law article (`https://www.gtlaw.com/en/insights/2026/6/house-passes-21st-century-road-to-housing-act-with-changes-to-institutional-investor-restrictions`). Let's fetch NPR first.

This is a huge, dramatic development. Congress passed the "21st Century ROAD to Housing Act" on June 22-23, 2026, with overwhelming bipartisan support (89-10 in the Senate, 358-32 in the House). However, on June 24, 2026, President Trump abruptly cancelled the planned signing ceremony, threatening to veto or hold the bill unless Congress passes a strict voter ID bill called the "Save America Act". This creates massive policy uncertainty for the housing market. Let's search for "Save America Act" and "Trump upends bipartisan housing bill leaving lawmakers scrambling" to see what the current state of play is (as of today, June 29, 2026). Let's fetch `https://www.npr.org/2026/06/24/nx-s1-5869533/trump-upends-bipartisan-housing-bill-leaving-lawmakers-scrambling` if possible or search for it. Let's do a search first.

Let's fetch `https://www.npr.org/2026/06/24/nx-s1-5869533/trump-upends-bipartisan-housing-bill-leaving-lawmakers-scrambling` to see what exactly Trump is demanding and what the reactions are. This is incredibly fresh news (June 24, 2026). Let's fetch it.

This is extremely important. Let's look at the key elements of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act: - Bipartisan bill sponsored by Tim Scott (R-SC), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), French Hill (R-AR), Maxine Waters (D-CA). - Passed the Senate on June 22, 2026, and the House on June 23, 2026 (358-32 in the House, 89-10 in the Senate). - Key provisions: 1. Ban on corporate/institutional investors buying single-family homes to rent if they already own 350+ homes. 2. Streamlining regulations for homebuilders (e.g. skipping environmental reviews if a project is between two already-reviewed buildings). 3. Grant program for communities to develop "pattern books" of preapproved housing designs. 4. Eliminating the requirement that manufactured homes have a permanent chassis (cutting $5,000 to $10,000 off construction costs and allowing multi-story modular designs). 5. Giving federal funding incentives to local governments that speed up building. 6. Nine community banking bills to expand local lending for housing construction and mortgages. - On June 24, 2026, President Trump abruptly cancelled the signing ceremony, demanding that Congress pass the "SAVE America Act" (strict voter ID law requiring proof of citizenship) before he signs the housing package. He also dismissed the housing bill as "Warren-centric" and of "minor importance." This is a massive development for the US housing policy and zoning environment. It should be written up in a revised note for `us-housing-policy-zoning-deregulation-2026`. Wait! Let's check the other threads and watches. We have: - KB Home (KBH) releases Q2 2026 earnings (one-shot watch, fire_date June 23, 2026). - Trigger: Watch for gross margin performance (est. +19.15% or similar) and order trends. - From the Stock Titan article we read that KB Home's gross margin was 15.2% (gross margin before fair value adjustments was 25%? No, "housing gross profit margin compressed to 15.2% due to price reductions, higher land costs and reduced operating leverage", and the company's full-year gross margin guidance is 16.1% to 16.5%). - Let's check the watch expectations: "Watch for gross margin performance (est. +19.15% or similar) and order trends." - Let's see: KB Home reported Q2 2026 revenue of $1.11B (down 27% YoY), EPS of $0.43 (down from $1.50 YoY, but beat expectations?), housing gross margin of 15.2% (significantly lower than the est. 19.15%). However, net orders fell only 4% to 3,317, and the built-to-order pivot is progressing. - I should call `record_event` on `019eee61-3a86-76b3-b20f-e68589dc454d` to resolve this watch. Let's do that! - Wait, let's look at the other watch: Lennar (LEN) quarterly sales incentive rate trends (ongoing). Lennar reported on June 11, 2026. This cycle doesn't have a new Lennar earnings report, so we don't fire that watch. Let's do a search on other major homebuilders to see if there is any other earnings news or if we can find more about the existing housing market metrics like inventory levels and mortgage rates. Let's search: `"existing home inventory" OR "months of supply" June 2026 OR May 2026`. Or search for Redfin or Zillow's latest June 2026 updates.

I will call `read_notes` to list the current set of notes on this topic so I can see what files we can update.

Ah, the `web_search` budget is spent. We cannot do any more web searches, but we have already fetched and read highly substantive information on: 1. KB Home's Q2 2026 earnings results (which fires the watch `019eee61-3a86-76b3-b20f-e68589dc454d`). 2. The landmark federal housing legislation: the "21st Century ROAD to Housing Act" which passed the House and Senate in late June 2026, and President Trump's subsequent abrupt cancellation of the signing ceremony on June 24, 2026. This directly updates the regulatory/policy environment note `us-housing-policy-zoning-deregulation-2026`. Let's do this sequentially: 1. Write a note updating `us-housing-policy-zoning-deregulation-2026` with the details of the "21st Century ROAD to Housing Act" and the dramatic showdown between Congress and President Trump. 2. Write a new note tracking KB Home's Q2 2026 earnings results and its built-to-order pivot, under a stable slug like `kb-home-built-to-order-pivot-2026`. 3. Call `record_event` to resolve the KB Home Q2 earnings watch. 4. Call `finish_cycle`. Let's start by writing the updated policy note first, reusing the slug `us-housing-policy-zoning-deregulation-2026`. Let's draft it carefully.

Now I will write a note on KB Home's Q2 2026 earnings under a stable slug like `kb-home-built-to-order-pivot-2026`. This note will capture their mixed results, margin compression, and their pivot back to a Built to Order (BTO) model. Let's write this note.

Now I will call `record_event` to resolve the KB Home Q2 2026 earnings watch (`019eee61-3a86-76b3-b20f-e68589dc454d`). Let's look at the parameters: - `thread_id`: `019eee61-3a86-76b3-b20f-e68589dc454d` - `cycle_id`: `e6ad6977-5d78-4b9e-9844-1633e5f93946` - `summary`: "KB Home reported Q2 2026 results showing a 27% revenue drop and substantial gross margin compression to 15.2%." - `resolves`: `true` - `outcome`: "Gross margin of 15.2% fell well short of expectations (~19.15%), but BTO order mix reached 73% showing operational progress." - `salience`: `4` (since it was a key scheduled watch) Let's call `record_event`.

Excellent. The watch has been resolved and recorded. Let's call `resolve_thread` for the thread `019eee61-3a86-76b3-b20f-e68589dc454d` as well to make sure it's fully closed and we get credit for it. Wait, watches are listed as threads in `list_threads`. Let's verify if we need to call `resolve_thread`. Yes, calling `resolve_thread` is a great practice to close out any open thread. Let's do that.

Now let's check if there are any other threads or watches we should register. What about a watch for the presidential signing of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act? This is a dated catalyst or live process. The bill went to the President's desk on June 23, 2026, and on June 24, 2026, Trump threatened to veto it unless the SAVE America Act is passed. We should watch for whether President Trump signs or vetoes the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act. Let's register this as a `one_shot` watch of type `live_process` or `dated_catalyst`. Let's call `record_watch`: - `topic_id`: `019e84f5-64ec-7486-90b4-900073828cc4` - `cycle_id`: `e6ad6977-5d78-4b9e-9844-1633e5f93946` - `title`: "Presidential Action on 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act" - `cardinality`: `one_shot` - `watch_type`: `live_process` - `entity`: "US Housing Bill" - `note`: "Watch for whether President Trump signs or vetoes the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, or if Congress overrides a veto." Let's call `record_watch`.

Excellent. Now I will call `finish_cycle` to successfully end the research cycle.

I have completed this research cycle, capturing two major developments in the US housing market: 1. **The Passage and Political Showdown of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act (H.R. 6644):** Congress passed the largest housing affordability bill in decades with overwhelming bipartisan support (89-10 in the Senate on June 22, 2026; 358-32 in the House on June 23, 2026). The bill aims to expand housing supply by reducing regulatory hurdles for builders, streamlining environmental reviews, modernizing modular housing rules, and banning corporate investors owning 350+ single-family homes from buying more. However, on June 24, 2026, President Trump abruptly cancelled the scheduled signing ceremony, declaring he would hold or veto the bill unless Congress passes the unrelated "SAVE America Act" (voter ID legislation). This has thrown the future of US housing policy into extreme uncertainty. I updated the standing note `us-housing-policy-zoning-deregulation-2026` to reflect this historic development and registered a new watch to monitor presidential action on the bill. 2. **KB Home's Q2 2026 Earnings and Built-to-Order Pivot:** KB Home reported Q2 2026 results on June 23, 2026, revealing severe gross margin compression to 15.2% (down from prior-year performance and missing expectations) due to price cuts, elevated land costs, and weak operating leverage. However, its strategic transition back to a Built-to-Order (BTO) model showed strong operational traction, with 73% of net orders now built-to-order and backlog growing 45% year-to-date. This strategic shift is designed to lock in margins and reduce speculative inventory risk. I created a new note `kb-home-built-to-order-pivot-2026` to detail these findings and resolved the existing watch on KB Home Q2 earnings.