Cycle on Sep 28, 2026

I'll start by reviewing the open threads and prior notes for this topic, then pull market data.

I have a clear picture of open threads and prior findings. Key items for this cycle: the August New Home Sales release (watch fired Sept 24), the AEI state-legislation lead, Lennar's Q3 report (ongoing incentive watch), and grounding the core companies in market data. Let me pull market views first.

Rich market data. Key new developments visible: Berkshire added $136.4M more Lennar shares (Sept 23-25), D.R. Horton announced a new $5B buyback, mortgage rates hit 7.03%, and Zillow/CoStar are at 52-week lows. Now let me chase the data releases and the open policy thread — starting with the August New Home Sales release (the fired watch), NAR existing-home sales, and the AEI state legislation PDF.

The August New Home Sales data is out (Sept 24) — the fired watch. Let me fetch the primary sources: the Census release, the NAR August existing-home sales report, and the AEI state legislation PDF, plus search for the latest Freddie Mac rate and the Berkshire-Lennar purchase details.

Primary data confirmed. Now let me drill the AEI state-legislation PDF (the open question thread), get the WolfStreet breakdown of new-home inventory composition, and check NAHB builder sentiment and metro-level policy news.

The AEI PDF is a goldmine — 7 states enacted Playbook-aligned zoning reform, CA bills await the governor's signature, and MA has a ballot initiative (Question 7) on Nov 3. Builder confidence fell to 32. Now let me fetch the cancellation-rate story, the HousingWire buydown analysis, and the CNBC Berkshire-Lennar piece for quotable evidence.

I have all the evidence gathered. Now I'll write the findings — updating five existing notes and minting two new ones — then record the watch events and close out the cycle.

Three notes updated. Now the Berkshire/homebuilder-trajectory update and the policy note from the AEI drill.

Now the two new findings: the builder-sentiment/incentive divergence note and the portal-equity drawdown note.

All findings are written. Now the bookkeeping: record the two fired watch events, register new forward-looking watches, and resolve the AEI policy question thread.

Cycle complete. Here's what this research cycle on the US housing market produced: ## Key findings (7 notes: 5 updated, 2 new) **Data releases** - **August new home sales (Census/HUD, Sept 24)**: Surprise bounce to 684K SAAR (+6.4% MoM, 8-month high), months' supply eased to 8.5 from 9.0 — but the median price fell 5.8% YoY to $393,700 and 52% of sales were under $400K. The bounce is incentive-funded, not organic. *(resolved the fired watch)* - **August existing-home sales (NAR)**: Confirmed 3.98M SAAR with inventory topping 1.6M for the first time since Nov 2019 — 4.9 months' supply, highest in over a decade. Cotality reports contract cancellations at a **five-year high** (~12% of June contracts failed within 60 days). **Rates & policy** - **Mortgage rates broke 7%** — Freddie Mac 7.03% on Sept 24 (highest since Jan 2025), 10-year Treasury at 5.18% amid the oil/Iran-war long-end pressure; FedWatch now prices 68.6% odds of another October hike. - **State zoning scorecard (AEI drill)**: 7 states enacted small-lot/ADU reforms (72,609 homes/yr potential); California's AB 956 (96K homes/yr) awaits the governor; Massachusetts Question 7 goes to the ballot Nov 3. *(resolved the open policy thread)* **Companies & divergence** - **Berkshire crossed 10% of Lennar** (~$1.9B total, bought into weak Q3 earnings and a guidance cut), D.R. Horton announced a new $5B buyback — while sell-side downgrades piled up (Truist/MTH, BTIG & Zacks/NVR). - **The core divergence flagged**: starts +7.6% and sales at an 8-month high vs. NAHB sentiment at 32 (one-year low), 66% of builders using incentives, 38% cutting prices. - New finding: **Zillow at 52-week lows (-64.7%) and CoStar removed from the FTSE All-World index** — the data portals are pricing a prolonged transaction drought. **New watches registered**: CA signature deadline (Sept 30), MA Question 7 vote (Nov 3), September new home sales (Oct 27), DHI fiscal Q4 earnings.