Cycle on Jul 6, 2026

I will start this research cycle by checking the open threads on the US housing market topic to see if there are any specific questions, watches, or unresolved issues to address. I will call `list_threads` first.

I see two open threads: 1. A watch on the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act (whether President Trump signs, vetoes, or if there is an override). 2. A watch on Lennar's sales incentive rates (Q2 2026 was 12.9%). Let's do some research. I will first pull the macro market view to see if there are any updates on interest rates, inflation, or general macro conditions, and I'll search for recent news updates regarding the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act (which passed Congress in late June 2026, and we are now in early July 2026). I'll also check if there are any other recent housing data releases (such as June existing-home sales, new residential construction, or homebuilder updates). Let's run a web search for the "21st Century ROAD to Housing Act" to see if there has been any presidential action or veto since late June 2026. I'll also pull the macro market view.

Now let's search for the "21st Century ROAD to Housing Act" to see what happened to it. President Trump threatened a veto unless Congress passed the SAVE America Act. Let's see if there are any news updates on this bill.

Let's fetch the ABC News article on Trump refusing to sign the bipartisan housing bill to see the exact details and quotes. Let's do that URL fetch.

This is a very detailed article with exact facts. Let's look at the date of this. It mentions "this week" (which would be around late June or early July 2026). Let's search for more recent developments on whether President Trump has signed it, vetoed it, or if there's been any veto override attempt. Let's do a search on recent news about the bill.

This is interesting. Let's look at the Politico article from June 29, 2026: "Johnson sends landmark housing bill to Trump for signature". Let's fetch it to see the details of the timeline and kick-off of the 10-day countdown. Wait, let's also search for any news in July 2026. Today is Monday, July 6, 2026. The 10-day countdown (excluding Sundays) would be running. Let's see if there are any news updates about whether he signed or vetoed it, or if it is still pending. Let's do a search on `site:politico.com "ROAD to Housing"` or `site:nlihc.org "ROAD to Housing"`. Let's search generally with a freshness filter of recent or week, or just general search. Let's run a search for "21st Century ROAD to Housing Act" with `freshness="week"`.

Let's fetch the HousingWire article "Trump calls 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act 'a yawn'" to see the latest status of the bill and what Trump said. Also we'll fetch the NLC article "Ten Things for Local Leaders to Know About...". Let's do that.

This is extremely helpful! Let's see: Speaker Mike Johnson officially transmitted the "21st Century Road to Housing Act" to the White House on Monday, June 29, 2026. This kicked off a 10-day countdown (excluding Sundays). Let's calculate the 10-day countdown: - June 29 (Monday) - Transmitted - Day 1: June 30 (Tuesday) - Day 2: July 1 (Wednesday) - Day 3: July 2 (Thursday) - Day 4: July 3 (Friday) - Day 5: July 4 (Saturday) - July 5 (Sunday) - Excluded - Day 6: July 6 (Monday) - Today! So the 10-day countdown is still active. The bill has not yet become law automatically, nor has it been vetoed yet. Let's double-check if there has been any veto action as of today, July 6, 2026. Let's do a quick search on "21st Century ROAD to Housing Act" and "veto" or "vetoed" to be sure.

The bill has not been vetoed yet. It is currently sitting on President Trump's desk after being transmitted on June 29, 2026. This means the watch thread `019f126c-e655-70bb-a142-eb65bce69707` on Presidential Action is still active and ongoing (not resolved yet, since the 10 days have not finished and no action has been taken). Let's check the other watch thread: Lennar's quarterly sales incentive rate trends. Lennar reported Q2 2026 on June 11, 2026, and their Q3 2026 earnings won't be reported until September 2026. So that watch thread remains open and ongoing. Now let's check if there are other builders that have reported earnings recently, or if we have any updates on existing home inventory or new residential construction. Let's search for "new residential construction" "June 2026" or "May 2026" and see if there are any updates. The May 2026 data was released on June 16, 2026. June 2026 data is typically released in mid-July (usually around July 16-18). Let's see if there is any other housing data released in late June or early July 2026. Let's do a web search.

Let's check the article "U.S. Housing Construction in June 2026: Single-Family Pulls Back..." or other articles to see if there is any new June 2026 data. Wait, the June 2026 Census/HUD data isn't released until mid-July. Let's look at the "Sales of new single-family houses in May 2026" which was released on June 24, 2026. Let's do a search for "new home sales" "May 2026" Census HUD to see what that showed. Let's also check if there is any more recent data. Let's do a search on "existing home sales" "June 2026" or "May 2026" NAR. The May existing-home sales were reported on June 9, 2026 or June 22, 2026? Wait, the prior finding says "May 2026 Existing-Home Sales... reported on June 9, 2026". Let's check if there are any other reports or if we have any updates on existing-home sales or homebuilders. Let's search for "NAR" "existing home sales" "June 2026" or "May 2026" to see what the latest report was.

Ah! The NAR Existing-Home Sales for June 2026 will be released on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Let's see what else. Let's look at "Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2026" from Calculated Risk (Substack). Let's search for "Calculated Risk" Substack articles from late June or early July 2026 to see if there are any updates on inventory, months of supply, or builder commentary. Let's do a search on Calculated Risk.

Let's fetch "Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2026" (Part 1 and Part 2) to see what the trends are. Let's do that.

Let's fetch Part 2 as well: `https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-2-current-state-of-the-housing-62f` to see what it says about homebuilders, housing starts, and new home sales.

Let's search for some other homebuilder earnings or recent data on homebuilders. KB Home reported Q2 2026 on June 23, 2026. Let's see if any other homebuilders reported in late June or early July, or if we have any other notable updates in the homebuilder sector. Let's search for "D.R. Horton" or "Toll Brothers" or "NVR" or "Meritage Homes" earnings Q2 2026 or Q3 2026. Wait, D.R. Horton (DHI) usually reports Q3 of their fiscal year in late July (usually around July 20-25). Let's check their schedule. Let's do a search.

Perfect! D.R. Horton (DHI) will report its Q3 2026 earnings on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Let's see if there are other builders. What about Meritage Homes (MTH)? Let's search for "Meritage Homes" Q2 2026 earnings date. Let's do a search.

Awesome. Meritage Homes (MTH) is scheduled to release its Q2 2026 earnings on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Let's check NVR. When is NVR's Q2 2026 earnings release? Let's do a search.

Ah, the web_search budget is spent. Let's review the information we have gathered and write up our findings. Let's look at the current status of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which is a major update to: - `us-housing-policy-zoning-deregulation-2026` (US Housing Policy and Zoning Reform: Federal 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act Passes Congress but Faces Trump Showdown in late June 2026) Let's read the prior note for `us-housing-policy-zoning-deregulation-2026` using `read_notes` first to make sure we integrate the new developments properly and maintain the living document. Let's call `read_notes`.

Let's fetch the full text of `us-housing-policy-zoning-deregulation-2026` to see exactly what was written before we update it. Actually, wait! The `read_notes` tool returns the list, and we can just overwrite or update the note body. But wait, I don't have a direct tool to view the note's full text, but I can use `write_note` to update it with the new information. Let's see what else. The May 2026 Existing-Home Sales rose 3.2% (reported in June). Calculated Risk indicates that existing-home inventory growth has slowed down in mid-June, and that sales are still at historically low levels (essentially unchanged from 2025, which was the lowest since 1995). Let's see: Case-Shiller National Index showed a 0.7% YoY increase in March (reported in May/June). Let's write a comprehensive update to `us-housing-policy-zoning-deregulation-2026` to reflect the latest developments from late June and early July 2026: - Speaker Mike Johnson officially transmitted the "21st Century ROAD to Housing Act" to the White House on Monday, June 29, 2026. - This initiated a 10-day constitutional countdown (excluding Sundays) for President Trump to either sign, veto, or let the bill become law without his signature. - President Trump has publicly criticized the bill as a "yawn" and "so unimportant compared to the SAVE America Act" (which is his top domestic priority on voter ID and proof-of-citizenship requirement). - He canceled the scheduled signing ceremony on Truth Social, declaring he will hold it until Congress passes the SAVE America Act. - However, because the bill passed with veto-proof majorities (358-32 in the House, 85-5 in the Senate), and Speaker Johnson expressed optimism that Trump will ultimately sign it after reviewing the details, the legislative standoff remains highly fluid as the 10-day clock continues to tick. Let's write this update under the slug `us-housing-policy-zoning-deregulation-2026`. Let's draft the note body.

Now, let's write a note on the broader housing market conditions as of mid-2026, integrating the latest inventory trends, Case-Shiller index numbers, and the macro context from our search and Calculated Risk reports. Let's review: - Existing home sales rose 3.2% in May 2026 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million (the highest level since December, but still historically depressed). - Nationwide inventory growth has slowed down significantly (active listings grew only 2.2% year-over-year in May, down from 4.0% in April). - The Case-Shiller National Index rose 0.7% year-over-year in March 2026, but decreased 0.22% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, representing a cooling trend in price growth. - Mortgage rates and Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.48% as of July 1, 2026, keeping pressure on affordability. Let's update the existing-home sales note or write a new one if it fits. The prior note is `nar-existing-home-sales-april-2026` ("May 2026 Existing-Home Sales: Sales Rise 3.2% as Improving Affordability and Inventory Boost Activity"). Let's update `nar-existing-home-sales-april-2026` to reflect the decelerating inventory growth and the broader mid-year consolidation. Let's do that! Or we can update `nar-existing-home-sales-april-2026` with the latest mid-June/July perspective from Calculated Risk and Case-Shiller. Let's write the note.

Let's check if we need to record or update any watches. The watch on the Presidential Action on the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act is ongoing, and we can't resolve it yet because the 10-day constitutional countdown is still active (as of Monday, July 6, 2026, which is Day 6 of the countdown). Let's double check if we have any other threads or watches to register. We don't need any new watches since the current watches cover the major upcoming events (the presidential action on the bill and Lennar's earnings). Let's finish the cycle.

I have successfully completed the research cycle for this topic. ### Key Findings & Updates: 1. **Federal Housing Policy Standoff (`[[us-housing-policy-zoning-deregulation-2026]]`)**: - House Speaker Mike Johnson officially transmitted the bipartisan **21st Century ROAD to Housing Act (H.R. 6644)** to the White House on Monday, June 29, 2026, triggering a 10-day constitutional countdown (excluding Sundays). - President Trump has publicly dismissed the bill as a "yawn" and canceled the scheduled signing ceremony, declaring he will not sign it until Congress passes the **SAVE America Act** (voter ID/citizenship requirements). - Because the bill passed with veto-proof majorities (358–32 in the House, 85–5 in the Senate), the legislative standoff remains highly fluid as the 10-day clock ticks down. 2. **Existing-Home Market Dynamics (`[[nar-existing-home-sales-april-2026]]`)**: - While May sales rose 3.2% month-over-month to a 4.17 million annualized rate (SAAR), overall transaction volumes remain historically depressed. - Active listings growth has sharply decelerated, growing only 2.2% year-over-year in May (down from 4.0% in April), indicating that the inventory recovery is losing momentum. - Home price appreciation is flattening, with the Case-Shiller National Index rising 0.7% year-over-year in March but declining 0.22% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis. - The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.48% (as of July 1, 2026), continuing to exert pressure on mortgage rates and housing affordability.