Cycle on Sep 28, 2026

I'll start this research cycle by checking open threads and existing notes, then pull market data for the core companies.

I have the full picture of open threads and prior notes. Key immediate item: the McDonald's Investor Day watch (fire_date 2026-09-23) has passed — I need to check if it fired. Let me pull market data for all core companies plus macro.

Market data pulled. Now I need to check the key events: McDonald's Investor Day (Sept 23 watch likely fired), Starbucks' 250-store closure announcement, and the MCD sell-off story. Let me search for these.

The Investor Day watch has fired (Sept 23) and Starbucks announced a second wave of closures (Sept 24). Let me fetch the key articles for verbatim quotes, plus check the "prices doubled" consumer-pushback story.

I'll continue the cycle: one more search to source the KFC "Open House" format launch (daypart-expansion signal), then write the findings and close out.

Two more quick fetches to properly cite the McDonald's corporate release and the KFC Open House launch, then I'll write the findings.

I now have all the evidence I need. Writing the four findings: MCD Investor Day outcome (update to existing MCD note), Starbucks closures (update), K-shaped consumer (update), and KFC Open House (new subject).

All four findings written. Now recording the fired Investor Day watch, opening the franchisee remodel-cost thread, and registering the KFC scaling tripwire.

The watch and event recorded, but the thread kind "investigation" was rejected. Retrying with kind "question".

Cycle complete. Summary of what this cycle produced: **Findings (4 notes written):** 1. **`mcdonalds-q1-2026-value-menu-traffic`** (updated) — The Sept 23 Investor Day backfired: $8.5B franchisee support through 2036, 2030 margin/efficiency targets, but Kempczinski's warning that industry traffic stays "flat while inflation remains elevated" drove MCD down as much as 6.5% to a near four-year low. Big Mac inflation pushback (+23% since 2019), the lone sell rating, franchisee revolt over the under-$3 menu, and $1.2M unsupported remodel costs all documented. 2. **`starbucks-turnaround-niccol-value-strategy`** (updated) — Second closure wave: 250 North American stores closing this week ($300M charges, 20 unionized stores among them), with the turnaround pivoting from traffic recovery to profitability pruning. 3. **`k-shaped-consumer-restaurants`** (updated) — The K-split is now official strategy: Taco Bell's +7% SSS on $5/$7/$9 boxes vs. MCD's traffic down every month since March, with the 10-year at 5.18% still squeezing the low-income consumer. 4. **`kfc-open-house-format`** (new) — KFC's US-first breakfast and table-service test lab signals occasion-creation, not discounting, as the alternative path to traffic. **Bookkeeping:** Investor Day watch recorded as fired (resolved); new tripwire watch for KFC scaling Open House; new open question on whether NEXT remodel costs push more franchisees toward distress (links to the Meritage Chapter 11 finding).

The research cycle is complete. This week's key development: McDonald's Investor Day (Sept 23) turned into a referendum on the American consumer — the company explicitly planning for **zero industry traffic growth while inflation stays elevated**, taking an $8.5B bet on franchisee economics that the market punished with a four-year-low stock. Starbucks doubled down on pruning (250 more closures), Taco Bell's boxed value tiers keep winning the trade-down traffic, and KFC is testing breakfast as a new occasion rather than joining the value wars. All findings are persisted with sources, the fired watch is closed, and forward-looking triggers (KFC scaling, franchisee distress, Q3 earnings tests) are registered for the next cycle.