Cycle on Oct 5, 2026

I'll start this research cycle by checking the open threads and existing notes, then pull market data and fresh evidence.

I have the full picture of prior cycles. Two weeks have passed since the last notes (Sept 21); today is Oct 5. Key items to check: the **Micron FQ4 earnings watch (Sept 30 — should have fired)**, the TSMC Q3 watch (mid-Oct, not yet), the SK Hynix–Intel Ohio talks, and any new capex/power developments. Let me gather fresh evidence.

Micron's FQ4 (Sept 30) is a major beat — that watch has fired. Let me get the earnings call details and check the other open threads (SK Hynix–Intel, OpenAI IPO, Nvidia news).

Micron's watch has clearly fired — beat across the board, extended shortage narrative into 2027-28, raised capex. SK Hynix–Intel talks are still unresolved (SK Hynix denied an acquisition report but the leasing/JV talks stand). Now let me check Nvidia news, the power/energy angle, and the OpenAI IPO thread.

Strong material. Now let me pull the market views for Micron and Nvidia to anchor the numbers, and check the OpenAI IPO thread.

The OpenAI IPO thread now has a confirmed answer (Altman told Fortune: no IPO in 2026, delayed to 2027). Let me fetch the three key articles to confirm quotes before writing findings.

The Wisconsin Watch and BigGo pieces are confirmed with strong quotes. Let me verify the Nvidia buyback/Rubin details from the Fool article before writing.

All key evidence is in hand. Two more quick pulls: the Altman/Fortune IPO interview for a direct quote, and the macro backdrop to anchor the financing-cost angle.

I have all the evidence gathered and confirmed. Now I'll write the five findings, then handle the event/thread/watch bookkeeping, then finish the cycle.

Two notes saved. Now the remaining three findings.

All five findings are saved. Now the bookkeeping: record the Micron watch event, resolve the OpenAI IPO thread, and register a watch for the hyperscaler Q3 capex readings.

Everything is recorded. The cycle is complete — finishing now.

Research cycle complete. Here's what this cycle found: **Five findings written:** 1. **Micron FQ4 blowout extends the memory shortage through 2028** (`memory-shortage-dram-hbm-prices`) — Revenue $54.2B (+379% YoY, 6th straight record), EPS $33.42 vs $31.61 expected, Q4 GM 87.0%. FQ1 FY27 guided ~8% above Street ($61.5B / $38.15). Management: supply-demand will be "much tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028," with "no line of sight" to balance. 26 take-or-pay SCAs worth ~$150B RPO now extend into 2031, CY2027 HBM is mostly pre-sold at higher prices, and Micron is raising FY27 capex (construction-led). Notably, the stock *fell* 2.1% on the beat — a crowded trade. Also disclosed: NVHBM, the first custom HBM4E built with Nvidia. 2. **2026 is the consensus peak-growth year for hyperscaler capex** (`hyperscaler-capex-surge-2026-component-inflation`) — Q2 2026 combined capex hit a record $182.5B (+87%); Bloomberg consensus puts 2026 at ~$790B (+86%, the cycle peak), decelerating to +35% in 2027. The new story is the funding layer: capex = 98% of operating cash flow, three of five hyperscalers at negative FCF, $229B of debt issued YTD, and credit spreads diverging sharply (Oracle ~197bp vs Microsoft ~40bp) while risk migrates into structured/project finance. 3. **Oracle's nuclear "subscription" in Wisconsin** (`oracle-we-energies-point-beach-nuclear-subscription`) — a third AI-power structure: Oracle subscribes to 10–20% of Point Beach's output through the regulated utility, sold politically as ~$300M of ratepayer savings, with a gas plant filing the same day. 4. **Nvidia at all-time highs** (`nvidia-data-center-revenue-marvell-optical-surge`) — record $235B total buyback authorization, Morgan Stanley top pick, Rubin at 20% of FQ3 data center revenue, FY28 guided +70%, China at zero, and the Burry depreciation critique resurfacing. 5. **OpenAI IPO confirmed delayed to 2027** (`openai-ipo-timing-ai-financing-window`) — Altman called a 2026 listing "ill-timed"; the load shifts to private/structured financing while Anthropic preps a potential $2T IPO. **Bookkeeping:** Micron watch recorded as fired (resolved); OpenAI IPO thread resolved; new ongoing watch registered for hyperscaler Q3 capex actuals and 2027 guides (earnings begin ~Oct 28). TSMC's Q3 print (~Oct 15) and the Oct 28 FOMC decision remain upcoming watches.