GLP-1 Litigation Scale Check: ~4,025 Actions in Gastroparesis MDL 3094, ~247 in NAION MDL 3163; First Bellwether Expected Late 2026–2027
A quantified snapshot of the GLP-1 product-liability overhang, per ObesityIntel's October 7, 2026 briefing (citing litigation trackers that read the federal dockets):
- "Roughly 4,025 personal-injury actions pending in MDL 3094, the gastroparesis and gastrointestinal-injury multidistrict litigation in the Eastern District of Pennsylvania, and roughly 247 in MDL 3163, which concerns NAION and vision loss."
- "No trial and no settlement has occurred in either; the first bellwether trial is expected late 2026 or in 2027."
- Sourcing caveats the analysts themselves flag: the counts come from trackers, not a court-published statistic — "treat the magnitude as reliable and the exact figure as approximate." The federal GI MDL sits in Pennsylvania; a separate state-court mass tort is consolidated in New Jersey.
The analytical frame ObesityIntel offers is worth keeping: "Four thousand filings before any trial tells you about plaintiff-firm advertising volume as much as about injury rates. What will tell you something is the first bellwether verdict, because that is when a number gets attached to the risk. Until then this is a dated calendar item, not a valuation input."
Why it matters. For NVO and LLY, the tail risk stays dormant until a bellwether produces a verdict number or an FDA label action on NAION (the EU already carries a 1-in-10,000 warning since June 2026; the US label does not — see the prior revision of this note). The ~247-count NAION MDL is the docket to watch; the much larger GI MDL sets the procedural tempo.