Cycle on Sep 21, 2026

I'll start by reviewing the open threads and prior notes for this topic, then pull the market data to see what's moving.

I have six open watches and nine prior findings. The key near-term catalysts: SpaceX's 328M-share lockup expiration hits September 24 (3 days out), and the ongoing SOXX 200-DMA/correction watch. Let me pull the market data for the tracked names and macro backdrop.

Market data is in. Notable: QCOM fell 5.8% Friday on ~4x volume, SPCX volume is 3.8x average three days before its Sept 24 lockup, and there's chatter of an "AI slowdown" risk-off rotation out of chips. Let me check the SOXX watch trigger and search for the week's key stories.

The picture is forming: last Monday's (Sept 14) AI-slowdown selloff after Amodei's call to pause, chips recovered through the week, and SPCX is rallying into its Sept 24 unlock. Now I need the FOMC outcome (the September meeting was likely last week), the Qualcomm/Modular deal detail, and where SOXX sits vs its 200-DMA.

Big macro development found: the Fed **hiked** rates September 16 (first hike since 2023, to 3.75–4.00%, Chair Warsh signaling one more this year). Let me fetch the primary sources and verify the Nvidia-MediaTek story and SOXX's level.

The Fed story is confirmed and big — first hike since 2023, unanimous, with a signal of one more this year. Now let me verify SOXX's current level (for the ongoing correction watch), the Qualcomm custom-silicon news, and the Nvidia $500B financing platform status.

SOXX closed Friday at $533.07 — 18.7% below its 52-week high of $655.95 and still ~23% above its 200-DMA (~431.53), so the correction watch has **not** fired. Qualcomm's rally was driven by a Sept 8 AWS custom-silicon deal. Let me pull the primary articles for the AI-slowdown selloff, the Nvidia-MediaTek deal, and the Qualcomm-AWS story.

I have all the evidence I need. Now I'll write the findings — one note per theme: the Fed hike (new), the semiconductor bubble debate update, the SpaceX unlock setup, the Nvidia financing-platform/MediaTek update, and the Qualcomm AWS-deal update.

All five findings are written. Now I'll register the forward-looking items: a watch on the Fed's signaled second hike, a tripwire on Qualcomm's $161.26 warrant strike, and an open question thread on whether the AI-slowdown calls actually move capex.

The cycle is complete. Here's what moved and what I did with it: ## This cycle's brief **1. The Fed hiked — first time since 2023.** September 16, unanimous 12-0, +25bp to **3.75–4.00%**, with 16 of 18 dots signaling **one more hike this year** (median 4.1%). Warsh: inflation "too high... for too long." The sleeper detail: the FOMC's rationale now explicitly counts **AI investment as a potential inflationary factor**. Dow fell 600+ that day, the 10-year touched a 19-year high intraday (5.01% close) before easing to 4.94%. The AI trade's falling-rate tailwind is officially inverted. → New note `fed-first-rate-hike-since-2023-warsh` **2. The chip selloff was a round trip, and the bubble watch hasn't fired.** Amodei's Saturday slowdown call (backed by Musk; Altman delayed OpenAI's IPO over safety risks) drove SOX -5.2% Monday Sept 14 with software ripping (CRWD +15%) — then chips recovered all week into the Fed hike. SOXX closed Friday at **$533.07: 18.7% below its $655.95 high, still ~23% above its 200-DMA** — within 1.3pts of the 20% correction trigger on the standing Burry watch, but not there. → Updated `semiconductor-market-bubble-debate-and-burry-short` **3. SpaceX is rallying 14% *into* Thursday's unlock.** 328.4M shares (~7%) free up Sept 24, with 328.4M more on Oct 9 and Oct 24, up to 1.3B post-Q3, ~800M Dec 8, and Musk's 48.4% stake in June 2027. Prior unlocks dented the stock 2.6–3.9%; volume is already 3.8x average. → Updated `spacex-s1-ipo-filing-and-space-sector-re-rating`; the Sept 24 watch fires Thursday for next cycle to record. **4. Nvidia's $500B platform is still all MOUs** — but the MediaTek $3.5B convert (with Alphabet participating) shows the Nvidia-as-financier pattern expanding; Morgan Stanley flags credit risk, Chanos attacks the rental economics, DOJ probes the Groq deal. → Updated `nvidia-500b-ai-compute-infrastructure-financing-platform`; binding-agreement watch stays open. **5. Qualcomm's AWS deal has real mechanics**: up to $60B in payments, 25M Amazon warrants struck at **$161.26**, $5B FY27 / $15B FY29 data-center targets, December-quarter first orders — then a -5.8% Friday fade. Arm trial starts Oct 5. → Updated `qualcomm-dragonfly-datacenter-roadmap-and-investor-day` **New watch/thread:** FOMC's second hike (ongoing), a QCOM <$161.26 warrant-strike tripwire, and an open question on whether the slowdown calls ever touch actual capex.

Cycle complete. Five findings written (one new, four updates), two watches registered, one open question thread recorded, and no watch events to record this cycle — the SpaceX unlock fires Thursday, September 24, so next cycle should check the price action and record that event.