Cycle on Jul 27, 2026

I will start by listing the active threads and reading the existing notes on this topic to understand the current research state and see what threads or watches are currently open.

I will now read the existing notes in our system to see what topics have already been covered and what slugs we should reuse or update.

We have a wealth of context here. We have some outstanding watches: 1. Completion of Baker Tilly $3B BSL Refinancing (estimated fire date: 2026-08-31) 2. Completion of Catalent $4.1B BSL Refinancing (estimated fire date: 2026-08-31) 3. Blue Owl Q2 2026 Earnings and BDC Disclosures (estimated fire date: 2026-07-30. Today is July 27, 2026, so this is very close, but let's check if there are any pre-announcements or if we can find any recent news on Blue Owl) 4. ASIC Private Credit Valuation Enforcement Outcomes (estimated fire date: 2026-09-30) 5. Bank of England PM SWES Interim Findings Publication (estimated fire date: 2026-11-30) Let's do some searches on the current state of private credit in late July 2026. Specifically: - Let's check for "Catalent BSL refinancing" or "Catalent refinancing" to see if it has been completed or priced. - Let's check for "Baker Tilly BSL refinancing" or "Baker Tilly refinancing" to see if it has been completed or priced. - Let's check for any updates on Blue Owl Capital Q2 2026 earnings or BDC disclosures. - Let's check for wider private credit market updates in July 2026 (fund launches, capital raises from Apollo, Ares, Blackstone, regulatory scrutiny, defaults, etc.). Let's start searching. I will search for Catalent and Baker Tilly refinancing.

Great, let's search for "Catalent's $4.1B refi is the latest sign of a bigger shift" to see if there is more information on whether it has been completed or is still in the works. Let's fetch the Octus URL.

Let's see if we can find more details about the Catalent refinancing. Let's do a search on Catalent's $4.1B BSL loan pricing or closing. Let's search for "Catalent" "4.1 billion" "syndicated" OR "BSL". Let's also do a search for "Baker Tilly" "refinancing" or "3 billion" or "BSL" to see its status.

Ah, this is fascinating! The Baker Tilly news is extremely recent — from July 20, 2026! Let's fetch the `https://www.privateequitywire.co.uk/hellman-friedman-owned-baker-tilly-taps-debt-markets-to-refinance-3bn-private-credit-package/` article to understand the details of the Baker Tilly refinancing. Let's also fetch the Investing.com article or other articles if we need more. Let's start with Private Equity Wire.

This is incredibly rich and detailed. Let's look up other articles on the Baker Tilly refinancing to see if there are more details. Let's see if we can find the Bloomberg piece or other articles about the Baker Tilly refinancing. Let's search for "Baker Tilly" "Moss Adams" "Blackstone" "refinancing". Let's search for "The Accounting Firm That Refinanced Itself" or other articles. Let's do a search on "Baker Tilly" "Anchin" "refinancing" or "Deutsche Bank". Let's also search for Catalent's refinancing status in late July 2026. Let's do a search.

Let's do a search on S&P Global's rating or other news for Catalent's proposed senior loan or refinancing in 2026. Let's search for "Catalent" "refinancing" OR "refinance" "2026" or "S&P" or "Fitch" or "Moody's". Let's also check default rates and new capital raises by Ares, Apollo, Blackstone in late July 2026. Let's search.

Ah, let's search for "Catalent" "refinancing" "4.1" or "4.2" or "Ares" or "Blue Owl" to get any other articles. Wait! Let's look at the Octus blog post again: "First came UK fintech Finastra, which last year refinanced its landmark $4.8 billion private credit package in the broadly syndicated market. Now Catalent is following a similar path, with banks lining up a roughly $4.1 billion syndicated loan to refinance the direct lending package that supported Novo Holdings’ acquisition of the drug manufacturer." And: "Catalent Lining Up $4.1B BSL Debt for Refinancing: Drug manufacturer Catalent is lining up a roughly $4.1 billion loan in the broadly syndicated market to refinance its massive private loan that direct lenders provided as part of Novo Holding’s 2024 acquisition of the company, according to sources. ... The loan is priced at SOFR+500 bps and is set to expire in December 2031." Wait! Let's search for "Catalent" "SOFR+500" or "SOFR" to see if there are more details. Let's do a web search.

Ah, let's search for "Catalent" "4.1 billion" or "Catalent" "refinancing" to see if there is any other source or if it is still ongoing. Let's do a search on "Catalent" "refinancing" "Deutsche" or "JPMorgan" or "banks" to find any additional details on the banks arranging it. Let's do a web search.

Let's search for "Catalent" on the website Octus or search specifically for `site:octus.com Catalent`. Let's do that!

Ah! Look at the title of the fourth result: "Catalent Lining Up $4.1B BSL Debt to Refi Massive Private Credit Debt Backing Novo Holdings Buyout; JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley Co-Leading. This ..." Let's fetch `https://octus.com/resources/blog/bdc-performance-software-exposure-trigger-pricing-fears/` to see more! That is a very relevant article. Let's do it right away.

Ah, let's fetch the first URL in our Octus search results as well: `https://octus.com/resources/articles/catalent-lining-up-4-1b-bsl-debt-to-refi-massive-private-credit-debt/` Wait, let's look at the URL in the search results: `https://octus.com/resources/articles/catalent-lining-up-4-1b-bsl-debt-to-refi-massive-private-credit-debt/` (which is actually `https://octus.com/resources/articles/catalent-lining-up-4-1b-bsl-debt-to-refi-massive-private-credit-debt/` or `https://octus.com/resources/articles/catalent-lining-up-4-1b-bsl-debt-to-refi-massive-private-credit-debt/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=octus-on-credit`.) Let's fetch it.

This is incredible! Let's examine the details here. The Catalent refinancing is a $4.1 billion syndicated loan to refinance a massive private unitranche loan (first lien loan to Creek Parent Inc., the Novo Holdings subsidiary created to acquire Catalent in 2024). It is co-led by JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley. This direct loan is held by Antares Strategic Credit Fund, Apollo Debt Solutions, Ares Capital Corp., Blackstone Private Credit Fund, Blue Owl Capital Corp., Goldman Sachs Private Credit Corp., and Golub Capital BDC. It is priced at SOFR+500 bps and is set to expire in December 2031. Wait, let's look at the date of this. The article is very recent (from Q2/Q3 2026, as it refers to "healthcare sector senior direct lending refinancings priced at an average spread of SOFR+522.5 bps in the second quarter of 2026"). Let's see if the Catalent deal is complete or still pending. Wait, the watch we have is: "Monitor the syndicated loan market for the pricing and completion of Catalent's $4.1 billion BSL refinancing, which is set to replace its Ares/Blue Owl-led private credit facility. This is a critical test of the BSL market's ability to absorb jumbo private debt packages. ID: 019f7ea1-9636-7c4b-8b66-8995ee55b66c, fire_date: 2026-08-31" And the other watch is: "Completion of Baker Tilly $3B BSL Refinancing: Monitor the leveraged loan market for the pricing and completion of Baker Tilly's $3.0 billion BSL refinancing via Deutsche Bank, replacing its Blackstone-led private credit facility. ID: 019f7ea1-a1c4-7122-b632-10e75b023ee7, fire_date: 2026-08-31" Let's check if there are any other recent updates on these refinancings. Let's search for "Baker Tilly" "Deutsche Bank" "July 2026" or "August 2026". We saw that Baker Tilly is preparing to refinance approximately $3bn of debt through the syndicated loan market, replacing private credit financing used to support the accounting firm's expansion (merger with Moss Adams in April 2025, acquisition of Anchin, Block & Anchin, and Berkowitz Pollack Brant). Deutsche Bank is arranging it and was expected to begin marketing to leveraged loan investors "next week" (meaning late July 2026 since the article was published on July 20, 2026). So these two deals are currently in the marketing phase! They are not fully completed yet, but they are actively being marketed as of late July 2026. This is a major structural shift — the "Private Credit-to-Bank Lending Pendulum Reversal" (slug: `private-credit-bank-lending-pendulum-reversal-2026`). Let's do a search on private credit fund-raising and capital raises by Ares, Apollo, Blackstone, etc. in July 2026. Let's see what is happening there. Let's do a search.

This is incredibly rich! Let's examine the WSJ article from June/July 2026: `https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/investors-seek-to-pull-nearly-16-billion-from-private-credit-funds-81b6fe37` Let's fetch this WSJ article if possible, or search for more of its content to get exact quotes. This is a massive story: "Investors Seek to Pull Nearly $16 Billion From Private-Credit Funds" and "Wary of a prolonged redemption cycle, more fund managers are rationing withdrawals". Let's search for this headline to find quotes or fetch the URL directly (if cached or if we can find a free version, or if we can get details from another search). Let's do a web search.

This is an incredibly important development. Let's fetch the `https://www.rastanger.com/news/wsj-investors-seek-to-pull-nearly-16-billion-from-private-credit-funds` URL or search for more text from the WSJ article to get the precise numbers and quotes. Let's search for "Investors asked to withdraw $15.6 billion" to get more text, or fetch the Stanger article. Let's fetch the Stanger article first.

Ah, let's search for "Investors asked to withdraw $15.6 billion" to get the exact quotes from the WSJ article. Let's do a web search.

Ah, the search budget is spent. We have excellent primary sources and detailed articles already fetched! Let's analyze what we have. Let's review our existing notes and threads: 1. **Blue Owl Q2 2026 Earnings and BDC Disclosures**: Wait, the watch is: "Monitor Blue Owl's Q2 2026 earnings release, tentatively scheduled for July 30, 2026, for net investment income, redemption caps, and fund-level disclosures." Let's see if we have any data on Blue Owl from the searches we just performed. Yes! From the WSJ article: "Blue Owl, the bellwether for selling private-credit funds to individual investors, got some relief. Redemption requests for its biggest BDC fell to 19% of shares outstanding from about 22%." And from another LinkedIn post referencing the WSJ article: "Blue Owl funds received $4.7bn in Q2 redemption requests..." Wait, is Blue Owl's Q2 2026 earnings already out or is this redemption request data for Q2 2026 reported in early July 2026? Yes, the WSJ article was published on July 2, 2026, reporting that "Investors asked to withdraw $15.6 billion from widely held private-credit funds in the second quarter, up from the roughly $13.9 billion they tried to pull from those funds in the prior quarter." It also mentions that "Blue Owl funds received $4.7bn in Q2 redemption requests" and "Redemption requests for its biggest BDC fell to 19% of shares outstanding from about 22%." Wait, can we use this to record an event or update the thread/watch? Let's check the watch again: "Monitor Blue Owl's Q2 2026 earnings release, tentatively scheduled for July 30, 2026, for net investment income, redemption caps, and fund-level disclosures." The fire date is July 30, 2026. Today is July 27, 2026. The official earnings release is still three days away (July 30, 2026), so the watch itself shouldn't be resolved yet, but we have some early Q2 redemption request data reported by WSJ on July 2, 2026. Let's keep the watch open as it is scheduled for July 30, 2026 (or we can record an event if we feel it's partially addressed, but keeping it open is safer since the official earnings release is July 30, 2026). Let's keep it open. Wait, what about the watches for Catalent and Baker Tilly? - **Completion of Catalent $4.1B BSL Refinancing**: "Monitor the syndicated loan market for the pricing and completion of Catalent's $4.1 billion BSL refinancing, which is set to replace its Ares/Blue Owl-led private credit facility. This is a critical test of the BSL market's ability to absorb jumbo private debt packages." Let's look at the evidence we gathered: In late July 2026 (specifically, we have Octus articles showing Catalent is lining up a $4.1 billion syndicated loan to refinance its direct lending package. The loan is priced at SOFR+500 bps and is set to expire in December 2031. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are co-leading it. The direct loan is currently held by several BDCs (Antares Strategic Credit Fund, Apollo Debt Solutions, Ares Capital Corp., Blackstone Private Credit Fund, Blue Owl Capital Corp., Goldman Sachs Private Credit Corp., and Golub Capital BDC) and was originally provided as part of Novo Holdings' acquisition of Catalent in 2024. The refinancing is actively being marketed as of late July 2026. It is not fully completed yet (the fire date is 2026-08-31), so we should keep this watch open but write a major note updating the status of this refinancing and the broader trend! - **Completion of Baker Tilly $3B BSL Refinancing**: "Monitor the leveraged loan market for the pricing and completion of Baker Tilly's $3.0 billion BSL refinancing via Deutsche Bank, replacing its Blackstone-led private credit facility. This represents another test of the BSL market's capacity to absorb professional services leveraged debt." Let's look at the evidence we gathered: On July 20, 2026, Bloomberg and Private Equity Wire reported that Hellman & Friedman-owned Baker Tilly Advisory Group is preparing to refinance approximately $3 billion of debt through the syndicated loan market, replacing the private credit financing used to support its expansion (including its merger with Moss Adams in April 2025 and acquisitions of Anchin, Block & Anchin and Berkowitz Pollack Brant). Deutsche Bank is arranging the transaction and is expected to begin marketing the financing to leveraged loan investors "next week" (late July 2026). The original private credit package was led by Blackstone, which provided around $1.5 billion of financing for the Moss Adams merger. This deal is also currently in the marketing phase as of late July 2026, and is not yet completed. So the watch should remain open (fire date 2026-08-31), but we should write a major note about it! Wait, let's write or update the notes. Let's see what notes we should write or update: 1. **The Private Credit-to-Bank Lending Pendulum Reversal** (slug: `private-credit-bank-lending-pendulum-reversal-2026`): This note is highly relevant! The prior finding preview is: "The dramatic market share gains of private credit over traditional bank syndicated lending have experienced a notable reversal in 2026, culminating in mid-July with some of the largest private debt..." We should update this note to include the concrete details of: - **Catalent's $4.1B BSL Refinancing**: Co-led by JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, aiming to refinance the direct lending package led by Ares and Blue Owl (held by Antares, Apollo Debt Solutions, Ares, BCRED, Blue Owl, Goldman, Golub). Priced at SOFR+500 bps, expiring December 2031. - **Baker Tilly's $3.0B BSL Refinancing**: Arranged by Deutsche Bank, replacing a private credit package led by Blackstone (which provided $1.5 billion for the Moss Adams merger). This is a perfect fit for updating `private-credit-bank-lending-pendulum-reversal-2026`! 2. **Evergreen Private Credit Redemptions and Gating** (slugs: `evergreen-private-credit-redemptions-liquidity-gating-2026` or `private-credit-redemption-wave-gating-limits-2026` or `private-credit-redemption-wave-bdc-liquidity-crunch-2026`): Let's check the existing notes: - `evergreen-private-credit-redemptions-liquidity-gating-2026`: "Retail Evergreen Funds Gate Redemptions as Blackstone, Ares, and Apollo Hit Withdrawal Caps in Synchronized Q2 2026 Squeeze" - `private-credit-redemption-wave-gating-limits-2026`: "Massive Redemption Wave and Gating Decisions Shake Private Credit BDCs" - `private-credit-redemption-wave-bdc-liquidity-crunch-2026`: "Retail Private Credit Faces Record Redemptions and Liquidity Gating in Q1 2026" Let's look at the new data we have: The Wall Street Journal reported on July 2, 2026, that investors requested a record **$15.6 billion** in withdrawals from widely held private credit funds in Q2 2026, up from $13.9 billion in Q1 2026. This marks the third consecutive quarterly increase in redemptions, totaling over $13 billion. We have specific fund details: - Blackstone's BCRED fulfilled 100% of repurchase requests in Q1, with Blackstone and employees investing alongside shareholders to offset the redemptions (Blackstone and senior employees invested into an existing BCRED feeder fund to offset the repurchase requests). The Board increased the repurchase cap above the 5% level to fulfill all requests at 7%. But in Q2, redemption requests jumped for most big managers, including Blackstone, Ares, and Apollo, and more fund managers are rationing withdrawals. - Blue Owl received $4.7 billion in redemption requests in Q2, but got some relief as requests for its biggest BDC fell to 19% of shares outstanding from 22% in the prior quarter. - BDCs are trading at average discounts of over 20% to Net Asset Value (NAV). - This massive wave of redemptions is creating a major liquidity test for these retail-facing "evergreen" vehicles. Let's update `evergreen-private-credit-redemptions-liquidity-gating-2026` with this concrete Q2 data, which was published on July 2, 2026! Let's check if there are other notes we should write. Wait! Is there a note on private credit fundraising and opportunistic credit in H1 2026? Let's look at the H1 2026 fundraising data from the "Credit Crunch Blog": - Top 10 funds raised 60% of the capital in H1 2026. - Total fundraising is subdued compared to peak 2023 levels but has several massive vehicles: - Ares' Pathfinder Asset-Based Finance Strategy: $12.7 billion (Pathfinder Closed-End Strategy) - Crescent Capital's Fourth U.S. Direct Lending Fund: $10.8 billion - Blackstone's Capital Opportunities Fund V: $10 billion (hard cap) - Ares' Special Opportunities Fund III: $9.8 billion - Antares Capital's Senior Loan Fund III: $8.5 billion - Guggenheim's Private Debt Fund IV: $8.4 billion - 17Capital's Credit Fund 2: $7.5 billion - Adams Street's Private Credit III: $7.5 billion - Apollo's Hybrid Value Fund III: $6.5 billion - Ares' Credit Secondaries Fund: $7 billion - North American funds raised 61% of the capital in H1 2026, up from 52% a year ago, while European fundraising fell 35% YoY. - This represents a consolidation of capital into the largest US-based managers, even as the broader retail/wealth channel experiences a redemption crunch. This is a very important story on the bifurcation of private credit: retail-facing evergreen funds are facing a severe redemption squeeze ($15.6 billion in Q2), while institutional-facing closed-end mega-funds (like Ares, Crescent, Blackstone, Antares) are still raising massive $10B+ pools of capital, especially in opportunistic credit, credit secondaries, and asset-based finance. Let's see if there is an existing note we can update or if we should create a new note. Wait, let's look at the existing notes: - `private-credit-market-insights-late-may-2026`: "Private Credit Market Update (Late May 2026): Rising Defaults, AI Software Pullback, and Regulator Stress Tests" - `institutional-investors-private-credit-allocations-evergreen-2026`: "Institutional Investors Continue Allocations and Seek Secondary Opportunities Amid Retail Redemptions" Yes! `institutional-investors-private-credit-allocations-evergreen-2026` is a perfect slug to update with the H1 2026 fundraising and secondary credit fund-raising data! Let's check its title and content. We can update it in place to reflect the complete H1 2026 data. Let's do this systematically. First, let's write/update the note on the private credit-to-bank lending pendulum reversal: `private-credit-bank-lending-pendulum-reversal-2026`. Wait, let's double check the rules for writing notes: - No YAML frontmatter. - First heading is the title `# Title`. - Carry 1-2 REPRESENTATIVE VERBATIM QUOTES, copied exactly, each kept with the link it came from. - Name and link the actual thing (story, article, paper, or page) in the Sources block. - Use stable slugs. Let's draft the update for `private-credit-bank-lending-pendulum-reversal-2026`. We will combine the new Catalent and Baker Tilly details. Let's make sure we have exact quotes from the fetched articles. For Catalent: From `https://octus.com/resources/articles/catalent-lining-up-4-1b-bsl-debt-to-refi-massive-private-credit-debt/`: "Drug manufacturer Catalent is lining up a roughly $4.1 billion loan in the broadly syndicated market to refinance its massive private loan that direct lenders provided as part of Novo Holding’s 2024 acquisition of the company, according to sources." "JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are co-leading the refinancing, which is expected to launch soon, although the timing remains fluid and terms are subject to change, sources cautioned." "The refinancing will take out the similarly sized private credit financing led by Ares and Blue Owl for Novo Holdings’ 16.5 billion acquisition of Catalent in 2024 – one of the largest private credit transactions on record at the time, sources said." For Baker Tilly: From `https://www.privateequitywire.co.uk/hellman-friedman-owned-baker-tilly-taps-debt-markets-to-refinance-3bn-private-credit-package/`: "Baker Tilly Advisory Group is preparing to refinance approximately $3bn of debt through the syndicated loan market, replacing private credit financing used to support the accounting firm’s rapid expansion since being acquired by PE firm Hellman & Friedman, according to a report by Bloomberg." "The planned refinancing highlights a broader trend across private equity-backed companies, where borrowers initially turn to private credit for acquisition financing before accessing the broadly syndicated loan market once integration risks have eased and market conditions become more favourable." Let's write this note first. I will state my intent and call `write_note`.I will update the note on the pendulum reversal between private credit and bank-syndicated lending (`private-credit-bank-lending-pendulum-reversal-2026`) to incorporate the highly significant, multi-billion dollar refinancings of Catalent ($4.1 billion) and Baker Tilly ($3.0 billion) that are currently hitting the broadly syndicated loan (BSL) market in late July 2026. These transactions represent a major structural shift where jumbo private credit packages are returned to the BSL market once integration risks ease and pricing terms become more favorable.

I will now write the updated findings for the three active themes we investigated: 1. **The Private Credit-to-Bank Lending Pendulum Reversal** (`private-credit-bank-lending-pendulum-reversal-2026`), detailing the massive $4.1 billion Catalent and $3.0 billion Baker Tilly refinancing deals currently shifting unrated private debt back into the broadly syndicated loan (BSL) market. 2. **Retail Evergreen Private Credit Redemptions and Gating** (`evergreen-private-credit-redemptions-liquidity-gating-2026`), updating with the record-breaking $15.6 billion in Q2 2026 redemption requests, along with specific fund data for Blackstone's BCRED and Blue Owl. 3. **Institutional Private Credit Allocations and H1 2026 Fundraising** (`institutional-investors-private-credit-allocations-evergreen-2026`), highlighting the bifurcation of the market as institutional closed-end funds (Ares Pathfinder, Crescent, Blackstone) raise massive $10B+ pools of capital despite the retail squeeze. Let's start with Note 1.

I will now write Note 2, updating `evergreen-private-credit-redemptions-liquidity-gating-2026` with the record-breaking Q2 2026 redemption request data ($15.6 billion) published by the Wall Street Journal and Robert A. Stanger & Co. in July 2026. This note details the liquidity squeeze hitting retail-facing evergreen Business Development Companies (BDCs) and the steps managers (such as Blackstone and Blue Owl) are taking to manage withdrawal caps.

I will now write Note 3, updating `institutional-investors-private-credit-allocations-evergreen-2026` to reflect the bifurcation of the private credit market in H1 2026. While the retail-facing channel is facing a redemption squeeze, institutional closed-end funds (such as Ares Pathfinder, Crescent, Blackstone, Antares, and Apollo) are successfully raising massive, multi-billion dollar pools of capital. This shows that institutional allocator appetite remains robust, particularly in opportunistic credit, credit secondaries, and asset-based finance.

I have successfully written the three updated findings notes. All of them are grounded in concrete evidence from late July 2026, carry representative verbatim quotes, and use stable slugs. Let's check our threads and watches: 1. **Completion of Baker Tilly $3B BSL Refinancing** (ID: `019f7ea1-a1c4-7122-b632-10e75b023ee7`): This is an active watch with a fire date of August 31, 2026. Since the deal is currently in the marketing phase as of late July 2026, it is not yet fully priced/completed. I will keep this watch open. 2. **Completion of Catalent $4.1B BSL Refinancing** (ID: `019f7ea1-9636-7c4b-8b66-8995ee55b66c`): This is also an active watch with a fire date of August 31, 2026. The deal is in the marketing phase as of late July 2026. I will keep this watch open. 3. **Blue Owl Q2 2026 Earnings and BDC Disclosures** (ID: `019f5a97-a534-79e6-88a0-4e53b5cf0803`): This is an active watch with a fire date of July 30, 2026. Since today is July 27, 2026, and the earnings are expected in three days, I will keep this watch open. 4. **ASIC Private Credit Valuation Enforcement Outcomes** (ID: `019eee70-0141-7309-8165-3d4ae670fb66`): Active watch, fire date September 30, 2026. Keep open. 5. **Bank of England PM SWES Interim Findings Publication** (ID: `019eee6f-f17e-7b99-b547-72a5ddc3c92b`): Active watch, fire date November 30, 2026. Keep open. No watches have fired or need to be resolved this cycle, and no new threads or watches need to be registered since the existing ones cover the ongoing refinancings and earnings releases perfectly. Let's finalize this cycle by calling `finish_cycle`.

I have completed this research cycle. Here is a summary of the key findings and updates: 1. **Catalent & Baker Tilly BSL Refinancings:** * **Catalent:** A massive **$4.1 billion syndicated loan** is being arranged by JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley to refinance the direct lending package led by Ares and Blue Owl (which was originally priced at SOFR+500 bps). The loan is currently held across several major BDCs (including Antares, Apollo Debt Solutions, Ares Capital, Blackstone Private Credit Fund, Blue Owl Capital, Goldman Sachs, and Golub Capital). * **Baker Tilly:** Hellman & Friedman-owned Baker Tilly Advisory Group is preparing to refinance approximately **$3.0 billion of debt** via Deutsche Bank, replacing private credit facilities led by Blackstone (which provided $1.5 billion for the Moss Adams merger in 2025). * Both deals are actively being marketed to leveraged loan investors in late July 2026, marking a powerful continuation of the **Private Credit-to-Bank Lending Pendulum Reversal** (`[[private-credit-bank-lending-pendulum-reversal-2026]]`). 2. **Record-Breaking Q2 2026 Redemptions ($15.6B):** * According to Stanger data published by the WSJ, individual investors requested a record **$15.6 billion in withdrawals** from widely held private credit funds in Q2 2026, up from $13.9 billion in Q1. * This redemption wave is driven by widening valuation gaps (with BDCs trading at average discounts of over 20% to NAV) and heavy software/SaaS concentrations (close to 30% exposure across BDCs), leading to a classic "run-on-the-fund" dynamic as investors seek to redeem unlisted shares at 100% of reported NAV before potential markdowns. * We updated the note `[[evergreen-private-credit-redemptions-liquidity-gating-2026]]` with specific details for Blackstone's BCRED, Blue Owl ($4.7 billion in redemption requests), Ares, and Apollo. 3. **Stark Market Bifurcation (H1 2026 fundraising):** * Institutional closed-end funds are consolidating capital at a record pace despite the retail squeeze. In H1 2026, the top 10 funds raised approximately 60% of all capital. * Key institutional closes include **Ares' $12.7 billion Pathfinder Asset-Based Finance Strategy** and **$7.0 billion Credit Secondaries Strategy**, **Crescent Capital's $10.8 billion Fourth U.S. Direct Lending Fund**, and **Blackstone's $10.0 billion Capital Opportunities Fund V**. * This institutional rotation into credit secondaries and specialty finance/ABF is detailed in the updated note `[[institutional-investors-private-credit-allocations-evergreen-2026]]`. All active watches remain open to track the final pricing and completion of the Catalent and Baker Tilly refinancing packages (expiring August 31, 2026) as well as Blue Owl's Q2 earnings release (July 30, 2026).