Wells Fargo: GLP-1 Adoption Is a Multi-Year Apparel Tailwind — Footwear Left Behind

Wells Fargo Securities published a sector-wide analysis (May 2026) finding that GLP-1 adoption is driving a measurable lift to US apparel spending through wardrobe replacement as users lose weight — but the benefit is uneven across categories.

Key Findings

• GLP-1 has driven a +100bps lift to apparel category growth in 2024, +120bps in 2025, with potential for +160bps in 2026 and +170bps in 2027
• GLP-1 users spent over 40% more on clothing annually than non-users based on Wells Fargo's proprietary survey of ~1,000 consumers
• Bottoms and bras cited as highest-priority purchases
• Circana (retail data firm) reports 55% of active GLP-1 users have purchased new clothing or footwear due to changing sizes; 25% updated wardrobes to refresh appearance

Winners and Losers

Overweight / Bullish (sizing-sensitive categories):

• Kontoor Brands, Levi Strauss, Gap, Burlington Stores, Ross Stores, ThredUp
• Victoria's Secret upgraded to Overweight (bras = highest priority item for female GLP-1 consumers)
• "Intimates, dresses, denim, and fashion apparel" favored

Downgraded / Cautious (footwear and athletic):

• Nike: downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight; target cut $55 → $45 (heavy footwear exposure, international challenges)
• Deckers Brands (Hoka/Ugg): downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight; target cut $115 → $90
• Academy Sports, Dick's Sporting Goods, Lululemon also flagged as relative underperformers

Rationale: shoe size changes only marginally from weight loss. Users replenish casual/leisure wardrobes faster than athletic apparel. Athleisure faces additional headwinds from post-COVID category rotation and increased competition.

Circana Context

As of fall 2025, 23% of US households had at least one GLP-1 user annually (up 4pp YoY). Circana projects these households will represent 35% of all food and beverage units sold by 2030.