Bariatric Surgery Rates Plunge 34% as GLP-1 Prescriptions Surge 140% (JAMA Surgery Study)

A landmark study published in JAMA Surgery on May 13, 2026, provides the first large-scale, multi-year empirical evidence of the direct, disruptive impact of GLP-1 medications on the medical device and surgical sectors. Led by Dr. Thomas C. Tsai of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and Brigham and Women’s Hospital, researchers tracked 11.7 million adults diagnosed with overweight, obesity, or diabetes from 2022 through 2025 to evaluate the shifting dynamics between pharmacological and surgical weight loss.

The Findings: Pharmacotherapy Rapidly Replacing Surgical Intervention

The study revealed a dramatic, accelerating decline in metabolic bariatric surgery (MBS) volumes that directly correlates with the explosive adoption of GLP-1 receptor agonists:

"Metabolic bariatric surgery (MBS) utilization decreased by 34% from 2022 to 2025, while prescriptions for glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists (RAs) increased by 140% over the same period, according to a research letter published in JAMA Surgery."

Specific data trends highlighted in the study include:

• Accelerating Surgical Decline: Bariatric surgery rates fell by 34.1% overall. The decline began with a 14.4% drop between 2022 and 2023 (falling from 2.0 to 1.7 MBS patients per 1,000) and accelerated to a massive 23.0% year-on-year drop in 2024.
• Prescribing Explosion: GLP-1 prescriptions surged by 140.4% across the study window, driven by a 71.8% spike between 2022 and 2023 (rising from 36.2 to 62.1 patients per 1,000 filling prescriptions) and continued double-digit growth in 2024.
• Patient Segmentation: Patients who still underwent bariatric surgery were found to be "more medically complex," with 25.7% presenting with four or more comorbidities, compared to 22.7% of GLP-1 users and 16.0% of untreated patients.

Severe Undertreatment of Obesity Persists

Despite the rapid adoption of GLP-1s, the researchers emphasized that the vast majority of patients with obesity remain untreated by both drugs and surgery:

"Despite the increase in GLP-1s, our study shows that obesity remains undertreated, with only about 9.5% of the relevant population undergoing treatment with GLP-1s or MBS."

Investor Implications for Medical Devices

This study confirms a structural, structural decline in the market for bariatric surgery medical devices, instruments, and robotic systems. Companies like Intuitive Surgical (maker of the da Vinci robotic system used in bariatric surgeries), Johnson & Johnson (Ethicon), and Medtronic are facing a shrinking addressable market for surgical weight loss procedures.

With next-generation therapeutics like Eli Lilly's retatrutide demonstrating average weight losses of 28% to 30%—directly matching the historical efficacy of bariatric surgery—the commercial pressure on surgical device makers is expected to intensify. Investors must monitor how these medical device companies pivot, either by expanding into other surgical indications or developing companion digital health tools.