EPO Revokes Another Semaglutide Patent (EP 3 448 416); Novo's EU Exclusivity Could End as Early as 2031
The semaglutide patent cliff in Europe took another bite out of Novo Nordisk. Per JUVE Patent (Oct 9, 2026), the EPO Board of Appeal 3.3.04 on Thursday (Oct 8) revoked EP 3 448 416 — a patent covering semaglutide formulations behind Ozempic and Wegovy — reversing its own preliminary opinion, which had leaned toward maintaining the patent.
Key specifics from the JUVE report:
- The hearing "focused primarily on formal grounds," centering on comparing the invention with the formulation described in the patent and the assessment of a study published before the patent application.
- "The revocation of EP 416 is a setback for Novo Nordisk, as there are no divisional applications within this patent family and the patent could have guaranteed protection until 2037."
- "Under the patents that remain valid, market exclusivity for products containing semaglutide could expire as early as 2031."
Market context. The revocation landed on a stock already in a deep drawdown: NVO closed at $38.64 on Oct 12, down 24.0% over three months and 36.7% below its 52-week high, at just 9.45x trailing earnings (/markets/NVO/2026/10/12). Novo's counter-strategy is a deal spree — the company has announced over £4 billion in deals to acquire new weight-loss and cardiometabolic treatments ahead of the semaglutide expiries (per the NVO market-view news feed, Oct 7).
Why it matters. Every revoked European patent moves forward the date when copycat semaglutide can launch in significant markets, compressing the cash-flow tail that funds Novo's pipeline rebuild (CagriSema, amycretin, oral expansions). Combined with the earlier revocations in this family, the effective EU exclusivity horizon for the world's best-selling drug franchise is shortening toward 2031 — see the prior revision of this note for the Canada and South Africa generic launches that began the cliff.