Rocket Lab's Valuation Pullback: SpaceX IPO Triggers 57% Correction to Oversold RSI 13

Rocket Lab's Valuation Pullback: SpaceX IPO Triggers 57% Correction to Oversold RSI 13

Rocket Lab USA Inc. (NASDAQ: RKLB) is experiencing a severe valuation correction, with its stock declining over 58% from its record high of $150.23 on May 27, 2026, to $62.95 as of September 14, 2026¹. This pullback has pushed the stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) down to 27, signaling deeply oversold territory. Despite this dramatic market correction, the company's operational performance remains robust, characterized by strong launch execution, regulatory milestones on its pending acquisition, and major new commercial contracts. However, the timeline for its highly anticipated medium-lift Neutron rocket is facing mounting pressure and may slip into 2027.

The Neutron Launch Timeline Pressure

The window for the maiden flight of Rocket Lab's 43-meter-tall, liquid-methane-fueled Neutron rocket is narrowing. While the company is actively working through qualification testing, it has acknowledged that the debut launch could slip beyond the end of 2026.

In a regulatory filing ahead of its Q2 2026 earnings call, Rocket Lab stated:

"Production of the Stage 1 tank is currently aligned with the target delivery of Neutron to the launch pad in Q4 2026... While the window for an end-of-year launch date is narrowing, we are balancing the schedule of the first launch with entering Neutron into service as a system ready for full-scale production and high-cadence launch beyond flight one. Exact launch timing will also depend on the outcome of first stage qualification and other critical tests occurring later in 2026." — Spaceflight Now

CEO Peter Beck emphasized that the long-term goal of rapid reusability takes precedence over rushing the first flight:

"As we’re working forward with the vehicle right now, and the way we’re thinking about things, it’s not just to get to the pad quickly for flight one... it’s really about how do we get to flight ten in the shortest time possible." — Spaceflight Now

Commercial and Operational Momentum

Despite the potential launch delay, Rocket Lab continues to win significant commercial business for the Neutron platform. The company recently secured a dedicated launch contract from Kepler Communications, scheduled for no earlier than 2028, to deploy multiple satellites for Kepler's constellation expansion. This marks Kepler's first dedicated launch booking rather than utilizing rideshare programs.

Furthermore, Rocket Lab's launch cadence remains exceptionally strong. The company completed its 16th Electron launch of 2026 on September 11, 2026, successfully deploying a commercial satellite for a confidential customer during the "Happily Ever Faster" mission from Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand. This followed the September 2, 2026, launch of the "Owl Around The World" mission for Synspective.

M&A and Financial Foundation

Rocket Lab is also making steady regulatory progress on its landmark $8.0 billion acquisition of Iridium Communications, which is expected to close in mid-2027. On August 13, 2026, the company announced that the Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) waiting period had officially lapsed, and it has filed its Form S-4 and FCC applications, paving the way for the integration of launch, satellite manufacturing, and global communications capabilities.

Financially, Rocket Lab holds a strong liquidity position with $2.13 billion in cash against just $133.7 million in total debt as of June 30, 2026. The company posted record Q2 2026 revenue of $234.1 million (representing 62.0% year-over-year growth) and maintains a massive backlog of $2.36 billion.