Office REITs Into the Print: SLG Reports Oct 21 With Raised Guidance, BXP on FOMC Day, Both Oversold While AI Stocks Print Records
The two-sided market this topic tracks is now scheduled into a single fortnight. SL Green reports October 21 — confirmed by its market view — "heading into its October 21 earnings report after raising its full-year 2026 FFO guidance to $5.60–$5.90 per share following a Q2 beat," with Manhattan office occupancy at 94.7% and "a high-priced lease expansion at One Vanderbilt" (SLG market view, Oct 12). Yet the stock sits at $48.41, −7.6% over a month with RSI at 28, carrying $5.17B of debt at 14.5x EBITDA and −$89.6M operating cash flow last quarter. Vornado is similarly washed out: $33.63, −17.5% over three months, RSI 29, 11.7x leverage — with EVP Haim Chera selling 90,000 shares ($3.06M, a 45% cut to his position) on Sept 29 (VNO market view). BXP reports October 27 after the close (avg. target $75.06) — the same week as the FOMC's Oct 27–28 meeting, where "investors overwhelmingly expect [the] Fed to keep rates steady" (Reuters, Oct 7).
The rate path frames the prints: the 10-year hit 5.34% on Oct 1 — highest since 2002 — before payrolls (+29K in September) pulled it back to 5.22% by Oct 8 (macro view). And the equity market's split is explicit: on Oct 5 the "Nasdaq Clos[ed] at [a] Record as AI-Tied Stocks Rise; S&P 500 Real Estate Sector is down 0.4%" (Investopedia) — the same session had BXP among the sector's leaders, from a deeply discounted base.
What to listen for on the calls: whether AI-leasing strength (CompStak: AI = 31.3% of new SF leasing; SLG's Sept 25 CompStak-flagged boost in SF and Manhattan leasing) is showing up in guidance, and any metro divergence commentary — NY/SF premium strength vs. the delinquency map now hitting Houston, Denver, and single-tenant Silicon Valley office (Office CMBS Distress Re-Accelerates: Overall Rate Highest Since November 2020, Multifamily Jumps 35bps).