Novo Into the Q3 Print: A 9x P/E, a DKK 15B Buyback, and a Stacked Q4 Catalyst Calendar
Novo reports its first-nine-months 2026 results on Nov 4, 2026 at 07:30 CET — per its IR calendar: "On 4 November 2026 at 07:30 (CEST), we will announce our financial results for the first three quarters of 2026." Lilly reports Q3 on Oct 29 (per its confirmed schedule). The two prints land two weeks apart and will frame the obesity market's year-end narrative.
Novo's market view (Oct 19) reads like a value-stock case study: "Novo Nordisk shares have fallen 18.4% over three months and sit 36.4% below their 52-week high at $38.83, even as the company launched a DKK 15 billion buyback and beat estimates in three of its last four quarters." The multiple has compressed to P/E 9.14 and EV/EBITDA 8.18 against an 82% gross margin — but earnings fell 20.6% YoY on TTM revenue growth of just 2.1%, and the quarterly trajectory shows the stall (June-q revenue $78.49B vs March's $96.82B). Third-party coverage into the print flags US semaglutide sales slipping and CagriSema having missed a Phase 3 goal, with conflicting claims about 2026 guidance direction — one item to settle on Nov 4. Even the demand signal is distorted by success: thousands of Novo insulin pens were stolen from a Dutch wholesaler in mid-October amid concerns they'd be resold illegally as weight-loss medication.
The contrast with Lilly is the whole story: LLY at $1.12T market cap, TTM revenue +47.7%, EPS beats 4/4, stock at the 95.2nd percentile of its 52-week range at 42.2x earnings — vs Novo at the 16.6th percentile at 9x.
Novo's Q4 catalyst stack: (1) the Nov 4 print; (2) the FDA decision on CagriSema for weight management, expected Q4 2026 (watch open); (3) the Jan 1, 2027 list-price cut of Wegovy/Ozempic to $675 (watch open) — the move that resets the US pricing floor and pressures Lilly's pricing umbrella.
Meaning: Novo trades as a deep-value option on execution doubt — the market is pricing continued share loss to Lilly unless the pipeline (CagriSema, then amycretin) plus the price cut plus the consumer pivot (see The GLP-1 Consumer Pivot: Novo Launches "Consumer Rx" and Rebrands to "Novo"; Lilly Eyes Aesthetics; CEOs Reframe Competition as "Quality of Weight Loss") arrest the slide. The Nov 4 print and the CagriSema decision are the twin proof points.