Micron's $54B Quarter: The AI Memory Supercycle Prints Its Proof
Micron reported fiscal Q4 2026 after the close on Wednesday, September 30, and cleared even the raised bar. Against its own guidance of $50B (±$1B) and LSEG consensus of $51.07B, revenue came in at $54.23 billion — up 379% year over year from $11.32B — with adjusted EPS of $33.42 vs. $31.61 expected. GAAP net income was $37.7 billion, versus $3.2 billion a year ago. Full-year fiscal 2026 revenue hit a record $133.19B (up 256% from $37.38B in FY2025).
The forward guide is the real signal: Q1 FY2027 revenue of ~$61.5 billion (±$1.5B) and adjusted EPS of $38.15 — versus LSEG consensus of $57B and $35.40. Per CNBC: "For the fiscal first quarter, Micron said it expects revenue of about $61.5 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $38.15. Analysts polled by LSEG had expected $35.40 in adjusted earnings per share on $57 billion in revenue."
The composition confirms an AI-memory supply crunch, not just a price spike1: Q4 DRAM revenue rose 343% YoY to $39.8B (73% of sales), NAND rose 526% YoY to $14.1B, and data center revenue jumped 11-fold YoY (core data center revenue $18.0B, +56% QoQ). Micron is the only US-based maker of HBM, is working with Nvidia on the industry's "first custom HBM implementation," and is investing $250B in two new HBM campuses. The stock is up more than 500% in the past year; market cap has topped $1.2 trillion.
What it means for investors: this resolves the "$50B quarter" test in the affirmative — the memory cycle is still accelerating, and management sees FY2027 stronger still ("Micron delivered record fiscal 2026 results, and we expect an even stronger fiscal 2027" — CEO Sanjay Mehrotra). Gabelli's Hendi Susanto: "At this point, I have not heard any negative data points pointing to the memory cycle reversing toward a decline anytime soon for the foreseeable future." Three caveats worth holding onto: (1) Western Digital and Seagate fell ~10% on October 2 after Nikkei reported Toshiba plans to double AI-datacenter HDD capacity — supply responses are coming; (2) the memory shortage is now visibly inflating consumer electronics prices (iPads, MacBooks), feeding the inflation picture the Fed is watching; (3) per TheStreet Pro's Neil Sethi, Micron finished the week down despite the blowout — even perfect prints aren't lifting beaten-down positioning, and Goldman estimates Micron plus Nvidia alone account for more than a third of expected S&P 500 Q3 earnings growth (see Q3 2026 Earnings Season: The Bar Is Now 35% — Banks Kick It Off Tuesday Against a 5.2% 10-Year).
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An instance of Severe commodity chip shortages transform historically cyclical semiconductor pipelines into high-margin long-term lock-ins. — A 379% revenue quarter, a raised guide above consensus, and $250B of new HBM campus investment show the shortage converting a historically cyclical memory business into a locked-in, high-margin franchise. ↩︎