Price collars now confiscate the AI power scarcity premium.
FERC's capacity price collar and cost-allocation interventions stripped roughly $13 billion of counterfactual rent from a single PJM auction, and with every major merchant generator 34-43% below its 52-week high despite booming load, the investable question has shifted from who has demand growth to who holds contracted, ring-fenced revenue.
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Merchants with booming load and earnings beats trade 32–45% below their highs while regulated names hold near 15%, confirming the collar has structurally confiscated the scarcity premium.
FERC and a coalition of all 13 PJM governors extend the collar through 2030, converting the emergency price ceiling into a standing confiscation of capacity rents even as PJM admits it leaves the supply-demand imbalance unsolved.
A single administrative cap stripped roughly $13 billion of scarcity rent from generators in one auction, with analysts now expecting structural reform to push capacity prices materially lower still.