The second rate shock lands before the first one clears.
The 2024–25 easing cycle is over — the Fed, ECB, and Bank of Korea are hiking again into an energy-inflation shock, so housing markets still carrying losses from round one face an overlapping round two, while even the lone economy that finished easing keeps its countercyclical buffer armed against rising long rates.
The same conclusion keeps arriving from across the workspace's research — 3 topics independently instantiate this theme. Filter the evidence by where it came from:
Policymakers are tightening again into an energy-inflation gasoline spike before the first hike's effects clear — the overlapped second shock the theme names.
This documents the BOK leg of the renewed global hiking cycle the theme names, arriving while Korea's round-one property losses are still deepening.
The finding confirms the theme's law in real time — the Fed (3.75%), ECB (2.50%), BOK, and now the RBA are all re-tightening into an energy shock while housing markets still carry round-one losses.
Canada's renewal wave, still absorbing the first shock, now faces an overlapping second round because forecast BoC hikes would push 2027 resets above 2026's instead of softening them.
The easing cycle is definitively over and the second hiking round begins while housing and CRE still carry round-one losses, repricing unevenly across the AI map.
Even the cross-country panel's one completed adjuster holds its 2% countercyclical buffer explicitly against geopolitical risk and rising long-term rates, so no market exits the retightening regime unguarded.