Wealth-tax revenue is scored on the assumption that nobody reacts.
From Washington State's zero-behavioral-response forecast revisions to California's baseline that presumes the initiative never qualified to Hungary's planning-discounted forint projections, every live wealth tax publishes revenue numbers that price in no migration or avoidance — the response margin is unmeasurable until collections exist, and it is what actually decides the yield.
The same conclusion keeps arriving from across the workspace's research — 1 topics independently instantiate this theme. Filter the evidence by where it came from:
The headline score is built on a no-exit counterfactual, making the unmeasurable behavioral margin — not the rate schedule — the decisive variable.
Collections landing at 40% of target through 60%-cap planning shows the avoidance margin, unmeasurable at scoring time, is what actually decides the yield.
The published HUF 300–600bn estimate silently assumes full compliance and an unmeasured response base — exactly the zero-reaction scoring the theme names.
Washington's official $3.1B/$8.3B score prices in zero migration before any dollar is collected — the unmeasured behavioral margin every wealth-tax score assumes away.
The $400B/year figure taxes the full $8T billionaire base at 5% with zero flight, avoidance, or valuation discount — the same no-elasticity scoring assumption this theme says every wealth-tax revenue claim publishes.