AI borrowing now outbids the Treasury to set the cost of capital.
Frontier labs' $132–570 billion of annual debt issuance, stacked on federal deficits and resilient growth data, has driven the 10-year past 5.2% — 2007 highs — tightening credit and pushing mortgages past 7% with no new Fed action at all.
The same conclusion keeps arriving from across the workspace's research — 1 topics independently instantiate this theme. Filter the evidence by where it came from:
The FOMC minutes themselves credit frontier-lab debt issuance with driving Treasury yields higher — official confirmation that AI borrowing, not the Fed, is setting the cost of capital.
The same AI-leverage flows that drove yields to 2007 highs now reverse them — a hot CPI print cannot hold the long end against AI deleveraging.
The self-driven rise in capital costs transmits directly into 7%+ mortgages that builders must subsidize with buydowns and price cuts.
AI bond issuance on this scale, not any FOMC action, is the marginal force pushing Treasury yields to 2007 highs.
The repricing to 2007-high yields is delivered by the bond market itself, not by any central-bank move.